<p>Epiphany (and interested others), fwiw, the rising numbers of graduating high school seniors competing for a more or less static number of slots does not peak until sometime between 2008 and 2010, depending on which article on demographics you happen to read. THus this year's class has it tougher than last year's and next year's will have it even worse and the years after will become bloody Shiloh. I know that Smith had a record # of apps this year...but I recognized some political dusting when I heard it...I expect every other highly selective school did as well.</p>
<p>I do not think that stats at the top 25% mark is a safety by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, I believe that white applicant from a suburban environment needs to be at the 25% mark for that college to be considered a MATCH.</p>
<p>I do not think a school with a 50%/50% chance is a match. A school with a 50%/50% chance of admissions is a REACH, no matter how you cut it.</p>
<p>Finally, I think that too many people fail to take into account the qualitative factors in evaluating an application. For example: Does it communicate a clear, unambiguous identy that will appeal to a college? Go down the checklist to see if the app provides all the ammunition for a an easy admit (appropriate class rank viz-a-viz the type of high school, four years of a language, four years of math, four years of science, and so forth).</p>
<p>Those qualitative evaluations (i.e. is the this app easier or harder to admit than the next app with the same stats?) are critical in putting together a list of safety, match, and reach schools. Understanding the racial/ethnic/socio-economic pool the app will compete against is also critical to an accurate evaluation.</p>
<p>ID, my son's stats were roughly at the 75% mark of each of the schools his high school called a "maybe" - and his high school nonetheless estimated his chances as being 50/50 at these schools. In coming up with the likelies/very likelies (80 to 100% admission chances) - in these cases, my son's stats were way above the 75% mark. They definitely didn't tie the % of stats to % likelihood of getting in.</p>
<p>In coming up with these % chances,the school counselor of course not only looked at stats (grades/SAT's) but also the HS's prior experience at each school and other relevant factors. The book showing these results (I got the impression they practically keep this under lock and key) also indicated special hooks of acceptees (legacy, URM, athlete, other special talent) where relevant. Virtually every kid from my son's high school would have the "checks" for easy admit you mentioned just to graduate; no class rank.</p>
<p>interesteddad,
Possibly I agree with you, although I may express it differently, in that I describe a safety as a school the candidate is somewhat "overqualified" for, although this is being discussed on this thread as a negative, I'm aware. If the candidate more than fits the profile the college has recently admitted & has historically sought, AND the college has the course offerings that an adcom can see the applicant would want, that's a safety. (If the college is weak in engineering or has no classics dept., for a student inclined toward either, an offer of admission may not come.) I would further asterisk it as a safety if the college or U has an honors division within it that the applicant clearly qualifies for; such a student those colleges tend especially to want.</p>
<p>(Numerically, I put the candidate <em>above</em> the high range of admits, to qualify as a safety, & within the high range for a match.)</p>
<p>:-/ Thanks for the bad news, TD. Actually, I had heard about the peak population stats, too. (I had heard that '90 was be the peak birth year for the post-baby-boom crowd, so that applicants in '09 will enjoy a slight release of pressure.) Wish D#2 weren't so resistant to starting the planning/viewing now, in freshman year.</p>
<p>Unless there is a relationship with the school or unless the school is a "formula admit" school and the student is applying early enough in the process for the formula to work, there is no sure thing. The smaller, private schools that take a personal interest in the apps will look at all kinds of factors. Though I will not go so far to say that the old "Tuft's syndrome" will rear its ugly head, if an adcom feels there is very little possibility that a candidate is going to come to the school and the student has done nothing to dispel that notion, why should they waste an admit on the kid just to provide the kid a safety? A little bit of genuine interest can go a long way. Otherwise use a formula school as a safety. Though my son had way too many schools on his list, he had a good reason for applying to each one of them, and visited (well, he had to for the audition schools) each and everyone of them and spoke to the adcoms and gave them a reason why he would be a great fit at their college--except for HPY, and for them it truly does not matter as everyone shows too much demonstrated interest for them. Only a special directed interest would make a difference and in his case that came from sources other than a visit.</p>
<p>I also agree with whoever said before that you also need to look at the total ADMIT RATE. You can be in the bottom of the midrange and still have a very good chance of getting into a school that accepts 70% of students...but I would call that same scenario a reach at any school that accepts less than 50% of applicants.</p>
<p>Given the increasingly competitive world of college admissions, I too vote for dumping the term "safety school." Take a look at the Boston University board and you'll see many kids who were waitlisted with 1300+ SATs.</p>
<p>A few things...</p>
<p>I met a girl who was accepted to top schools and rejected at BU. Her guidance counselor (small, private high school) called up - and was told that BU thought she was overqualified and would not come, so they rejected her. They did say, however, that if she really had no place to go, they would love to have her.</p>
<p>Even six years ago, it was a different game. It was not unusual for the top students in my class (those with grades, SATs, extracurriculars) to have excellent schools as safeties. It was also pretty common for kids to only apply to 4 or 5 schools. Admissions got crazy, though... and things obviously changed. </p>
<p>I know that her life is crazy now, but I wish that Soozie could comment. Her eldest D, IMO, did a great job applying to schools. Her safeties were schools that she had a really good shot at - but she wrote cover letters explaining why she wanted to go there. She only applied to schools with architecture programmes and ski teams, and she visited all the campuses and talked to the people there. </p>
<p>I wonder if this is a time when needing financial aid would be helpful? A school that gives merit aid would probably have an easier time accepting an overqualified student, as she might be lured by money. (OTOH, I imagine that it would be tough for a school to take a plainly overqualified kid who is not applying for any aid or scholarships - why would they want to go there?)</p>
<p>These postings should be helpful to students who will be applying to schools next year. I especially like tokenadult's 4 points. Don't apply to schools unless you would be willing to attend them. Look for those schools that offer programs that fit your needs. If money is an issue which it seems to be for many, Look at the financial aid situation at the schools. Do they offer merit aid etc.? I agree with jrpar, schools are not "safeties." They may or may not meet your needs and you may or may not meet theirs. So do your research, and find a group that follow steps 1-4 above. You will not be disappointed next April.</p>
<p>I too agree with changing the terminology. A "dream" school may be a stretch school but it could be that your so called Safety school is the one where you feel you'll be happiest. Our s turned down 3 more competetive schools for a college that felt right for him. The fact that they offered half tuition merit aid tipped the scales. In his HS he was in the top 5% and even though a more challenging environment was worth serious consideration one factor he considered was that at some of the schools he would have to work harder than ever, perhaps forgoing a socail life, to be in the mid-range. The so called safety school he chose invited him into their Honors Program which will allow for some unique learning experiences with Nobel Prize winner type professors and visiting professionals as well as top internships. I think its a set up for diappointment to use the dream terminlogy and get too caught up in this prestige game. Given the huge population of applicants, especially female ones, a very qualified applicant can easily get turned down for no other reason that her state is overrepresented in their pool. So my advice is to make sure you can be happy at any of the schools you apply to and if merit aid is critical you will likely need to choose a school where you are in the top 10% of applicants.</p>
<p>By definition a safety is a guaranteed in. Waiting till April only to find out the guarantee wasn't guaranteed leaves limited options. I strongly agree with prior comments re: rolling admission. How else can you know for sure in the present environment?</p>
<p>I guess a safety school should be redefined as a school where you have been accepted.</p>
<p>When my son was apply to schools, a strategy he used for a "safety" was to apply to a school that had a high acceptance % and also had rolling admissions. The school also had to be a place where he would want to attend if he had to.</p>
<p>He actually was accepted in early November to his "safety" school.</p>
<p>
[quote]
In his HS he was in the top 5% and even though a more challenging environment was worth serious consideration one factor he considered was that at some of the schools he would have to work harder than ever, perhaps forgoing a socail life, to be in the mid-range.
[/quote]
I think this is a valid consideration. Not every excellent hs student is also the kind of "dedicated" student he/she might need to be in college to maintain an acceptable level of grades to him/her. College, imo, is also about learning and growth in many ways beyond the academic.</p>
<p>I think my S will thrive better in the same type of environment your S is choosing. Merit award was a factor in choosing it over more competitive places, but so was thinking about how he wanted to spend his time and where he wanted to fit in the range of students.</p>
<p>I think most HYPS etc. applicants are very much up to the challenge, but I do think some people focus too much on the name, as we say so often in our cc mantra, than on the proper fit.</p>
<p>Well I applied as a CC transfer student, so the concept of having safety schools was a bit different for me. When you leave High School, if you don't get in anywhere then there is always the emergency CC backup. However with that option done, I made sure to apply to a few very safe saftey schools. Basically I applied to all of the UC's (minus UCSC) knowing that I would get into at least one of them with my GPA (3.92). It is interesting however that it seems that now the only really safe safety schools in the UC system are UCR (pending)and to some extent UCM (accepted). It seems with the other UC campuses at least (can't speak for other state systems, since this is the one I really know) all campuses are competitive.</p>