I realize you meant probably meant this facetiously, but for those without a statistical background, while all three scenarios are possible, they are far less likely than getting a perfect NCAA bracket last year and winning a $1B prize.
A standardized test is a useful but imperfect measure of ability, and instead of a discrete score, we should be thinking about ranges. Someone getting a 2200 will likely get somewhere between 2150 and 2250 next time (assuming no additional prep). Given that it is a range, randomized tests can be every bit as accurate as a fixed test in estimating a student’s ability.