School in the 2020-2021 Academic Year & Coronavirus (Part 1)

Parents Forum
15922

@melvin123 --I do not have an answer as to what college (or life) will look like a year from now. I hope that a vaccine will reduce some of the risk, but since it is unlikely that any new vaccine will provide 100% immunity or that anywhere close to 100% of the population will receive the vaccine, I believe we will be living with many of these adaptations for a while. The combination of a vaccine that is say 50% effective and adopted by 50% of the population along with mask wearing, social distancing, etc, should reduce transmission. (Or substitute 60% effective & 60% adoption, for 36% protection.)

I look at this year as a trial run to see which approaches worked and which did not. Even before anyone set foot on campus we could predict which approaches are bound to fail and which stand a better chance. I am hopeful that in a year’s time we will have more info about transmission, prevention, treatment, etc.

I think some are sitting out this year after weighing the known vs unknown, and hoping that more will be known next year so that the on-campus experience is richer than can be currently offered.

15923

If we get to a point where vaccines can keep xx%age of cases down, and natural immunity (god knows how many people have this but some do), combined with some degree of herd immunity from those who have had it (this, too, a mystery, but some parts of the bronx that was hit the worst is thought to be about 30% now after going through hell) keep another xx%age down, the rate of transmission will eventually fall below 1. Especially if people mask and social distance until that happens.

So hopefully vaccine + all those other factors will be enough to get back to normal-ish. But testing and tracing in colleges might be with us for a good long while.

15924

I am not saying other schools do not offer exceptional opportunities (though I am less familiar with what goes on in other schools, so I will leave it to others to comment).

I am saying that is what MIT is focusing on right now: getting it right for all of its students, both on-campus and remote (with no “off-campus” minefield), rather than bringing students on campus for the sake of bringing them on campus, consequences be damned, which is definitely the approach at least some schools seem to be taking.

They were very transparent and collaborative in their decision-making, and anyone that was paying attention would not be surprised by what they decided (you know I wasn’t: see my post #37 in this thread on March 31). That so few decided to take a leave of absence is, to me, an indication that when all is said and done most are on board, even if some are begrudgingly so.

To answer your question, the current rate is good enough. They were saying in town halls they crafted their plans with the safety margin built in, expecting conditions to get worse rather than better. If they are able to maintain current levels through the semester, I expect them to follow through on the spring plans.

However, if situation gets significantly worse, I expect nothing less from them than to alter their plans accordingly.

15925

@PetraMC —Corona in Queens, NY had almost 50% test + for antibodies. Now, that population was entirely self-selected, so you have to discount that high level to reflect those who never presented for testing. However, still no data on how long immunity lasts. I am guessing that someone is attempting to study that.

Infection rate is below 1 in CT, but I sense that will increase now that schools have opened and more so once everyone is back inside for the fall & winter.

15926

Regarding the kids that have symptoms and exposure and are not being tested and carrying on…do all schools have daily symptom screenings? I have two kids in school (one high school one college) and they both have to do a daily input on a screening app/site. I’m assuming that for my college kid, dishonesty on this screening is an honor code violation with strict consequences. So these kids are just lying on those as well? Terrible…and seems like it would be very, very stressful to be breaking the rules like that.

And hey I’ll throw something good in here…dropped my young high schooler off to meet friends for lunch today before they head to hybrid school (carryout, eat on lawn spread out). As I drove in I was happy to see them walking up and putting their masks on as they got near to each other, it looked pretty automatic. It’s only the third day of hybrid school and one of the rare times doing anything with friends but I was happy to see that they are doing the masks even away from school and no one was watching.

15927

When we’re talking to high school students or their parents, we talk about different vibes at different schools. I wonder how much real difference there is among different schools about Culture of Care versus what I can only call Culture of Don’t Care.

If I were looking for a college for next year, and I were considering schools which had invited students back, I’d take into account whether students at those schools seemingly mostly abided by health rules or didn’t. (If there is a difference in schools, and I think there is.) I wouldn’t want to go to a college with a substantial Culture of Don’t Care.

People might say that students are young and have underdeveloped brains, and they’ll learn better as they age, which may be true but meanwhile I (a hypothetical college freshman) don’t have to spend time with them, if there’s a choice. If other students don’t care about infecting me with disease, what else don’t they care about?

Or maybe every college has a substantial number of Culture of Don’t Care students, and the only solution is twice-weekly testing.

15928

@"Cardinal I’m in the camp that every college has a substantial “don’t care” population and that the schools with the money and resources and maybe a solid plan have a better chance at success.

15929

Thank you @CT1417 and @PetraMC. So testing & tracing continuing, that’s great, especially if we get inexpensive and quick testing. That seems do-able over the long haul, without significantly impacting their experiences. Sewage testing also seems like a great idea. Anyone have any idea if that is expensive?

It would be really great if we can get to the place where de-densification and social distancing isn’t necessary, as mixing social groups is an important part of the college experience. The whole idea of exposure to different people than you and different ideas from yours.

15930

If we think about what has to happen before a vaccine allows life to go back to normal, it’s clear that it’ll be years before that could happen. The vaccines are unlikely to provide anything close to 100% protection, and it’ll be a while before enough people are vaccinated to stop the spread. The current vaccine targets are to prevent 50% (something like that, might be 60%) of serious illness. That would be a wonderful thing, but if we had 60% of people vaccinated, and prevented 60% of serious illness among those people, but did nothing else to prevent spread, hundreds of thousands of Americans would die.

This is why we should also push for cheap instant Mina-style testing. It could be a game-changer right away. Imagine a test for infectiousness that you gave to everyone entering a restaurant, everyone entering a football stadium, every student every morning, every churchgoer stepping into a church, every wedding guest. You could stop the virus in its tracks.

15931

I think for a lot of residential colleges, like Bowdoin and Amherst, it will mean a more robust return to full enrollment once it it becomes clear that double and even triple-occupancy rooms are within the realm of acceptable risk. Having a roommate may even be an advantage for people who require someone to talk to without a mask. I see mask wearing as a continuing part of the culture, btw.

15932

There might be a subset of students coming from communities where covid-19 is not considered a big threat. I’d put these students in the misinformed rather than don’t care category.

15933

Isn’t it a little late to start rethinking the 20-21 academic plans?

I believe at most places, once the gap year request is approved, it is irrevocable.

15934

I think he means the 21-22 academic year.

15935

Interesting but onky

Honestly, I think about the same question. What is the tipping point to even bring kids back let alone have them in classrooms in college. I selfishly want them back this spring since it’s my son’s senior year. So yes, this is a very selfish reason but I think most get that.

I hope by then we will know what the positive rates “per” college will be. If Purdue is always 2.5% or under maybe that is the best they can expect. If kids go back to classrooms and it stays around 2.5% then maybe that is their constant for that college?

15936

This is why most schools are failing at containing the virus. They had all summer to put in place testing, but it’s way faster to go to Home Depot. Not Walgreens. Home Depot.

15937

Something that didn’t occur to me before a conversation with my daughter today- kids at her school have mandated testing four times throughout the semester. They have to pay for it- it isn’t free. I don’t know why I assumed it would be free, and maybe I’m alone, but that’s something my kid is gonna have to budget for in spring. That’s at least 5 tests to pay for (arrival and then four tests- the prearrival test is free).

15938

At RIT which had Freshman move in 4 weeks ago and classes now for 3 weeks. there have been a total of 6 cases for students so far (and one for staff). All students that wanted to come back were invited back. They all had to have a negative test before arriving. Those from states that were on the NY naughty list had to Q in a safe state for 14 days.

They are testing a few hundred kids randomly every day, but they are also doing wastewater testing. Late last week they found something and got everyone tested in that dorm and came up with one asymptomatic case. Now I have a feeling that with the accuracy of the tests maybe they could have missed someone? But it seems like at RIT things are going well. So one has to also consider other factors. I think part of this is that RIT is not a school that is known for parties both off and on campus (not to say there are no parties, but its not in the culture). It seems that the cases they have found and people that are Quarantining are students that live off campus.
Also cases are very low in community around it (Rochester). NYS is pretty strict with all their guidelines as well. the students are wearing their masks all the time while on campus.
I really hope things stay this way. my son has 4/5 of his classes as hybrid, where he attends once a week.
The interesting thing is that in the parents group many parents were saying how without clubs meeting in person and other restrictions, it has been hard for their kids to meet people. But they should have been aware that this semester was not going to be normal for socializing. Also in discussion, what to do when your kid comes home at Thanksgiving and you have people in your household that are vulnerable. Do they Q in another part of the house. When do you test your student.

15939

UMass Amherst has now opened up twice-weekly free testing for all off campus students residing in the immediate area. Previously this testing was required for all on campus students (mostly seniors), and all off campus students that had to go onto campus for classes, but it was not available for off campus students that do not have reason to be on campus. While not requiring testing for this group, the university is strongly encouraging all students to take advantage of the free testing. It will be interesting to see what this does to their current numbers. As of today, they have administered over 29,500 tests with a positivity rate of 0.04%. I do applaud their efforts to keep track of the students in the area.

15940

I do. Well, I think it’s a possibility, anyway. My D20’s school (Simmons) didn’t invite anyone back this fall. They are nestled in between two schools that did (NEU and BU, both just down the street in opposite directions). While NEU and BU (and countless others) invested $$ in testing plans, Simmons invested $$ in their online course infrastructure. They have outsourced the course set up and management to an external company (2U), which seems to be allowing the instructors to focus on content instead of wrestling with the technology.

I feel that if NEU and BU manage to limp through the semester with the majority remaining on campus, Simmons is going to be under extraordinary pressure to find a way to make it work for spring. After all, at the end of the day, Boston was perhaps the biggest draw of all for my kid when deciding among schools. She can get a great education many places; she wants to be physically in Boston.

They recently (last week) revised their spring academic calendar, pushing the start date back to February and eliminating spring break. This tells me they are trying to have the best chance to make an on-campus semester possible.

15941

It sure looks like MIT made smart, safe, risk-averse choices in dealing with covid and campus this year, and I believe it is likely they will make it through the semester relatively unscathed, and I think if so, it will have been a good test that can enable them to bring more students back in the spring. They will have real-life learnings about their average test turnaround time, the effectiveness of their isolation/quarantine procedures, if testing twice a week is sufficient to prevent spread, etc., which will help them plan the spring with even more confidence, knowledge, and experience than they had going into this fall. They are lucky to have the resources to forego lots of room & board revenue and to invest in frequent testing, and they are using the resources well!

But I’m not sure that few deferrals and leaves-of-absences necessarily indicates that the student body was onboard and/or pleased with the decision to keep (the majority of) 3 classes off campus this fall. Choosing to take a gap year or LOA requires a lot:
–The creativity to make alternative plans on short notice during a time when appealing options are more limited than normal.

–In some cases, money (a lot of people mistakenly think of gap years simply as pricey globe-trotting adventures, which they can be, but don’t have to be). The Amherst data shows that although they had kids from all socio-economic levels take gap years, they did skew towards families with higher income.

–A higher tolerance for risk and adventure (not necessarily just risk along the lines of wrestling-an-alligator or skydiving, but it is a real risk to go off-track from your carefully planned timeline of high school to college to grad school, and do something more independent and out-of-the-box
–The ability to secure a great internship or job, during a tough economy with limited in-person job availability
–Support of parents who are willing to let you go off-track and still support you through college
–The wherewithal to possibly go find housing or the ability to get around on your own, not as part of a set program (unlike how colleges just have freshmen typically sign up for a dorm and it’s already vetted for them; gappers and LOA-takers may need to secure all of their accommodations, transportation, activities, etc on their own). Not everyone’s personality is good with that.
–…among other things. LOA aren’t for everyone, even if kids aren’t happy with their college’s choices.

An August article in EdSurge indicated that MIT usually has 1% of incoming freshmen take gap years, and this year it is 8%. I didn’t see numbers for upperclassmen taking LOAs, but I wouldn’t consider that an unsubstantial increase in the number of gappers, considering all of the planning and/or chutzpah required to do so. Presumably with a bonus +7% of incoming freshmen taking gap years, they could have taken students from the waitlist. Perhaps this was part of their smart/conservative covid plans to aid in de-densifying.

I guess I believe there are probably just as many unhappy MIT kids studying remotely as there are unhappy [other college] kids studying remotely. The fact that they didn’t take a LOA doesn’t mean they are onboard; they could just be risk-averse or felt they had no alternatives.

But I am also remaining optimistic that things will be relatively normal by fall 2021, and quite normal by the following fall, and these kids will all get over their disappointment in not having their expected residential campus experiences (for those who planned on it). Onward to better times!!