SEPT MADNESS! Prediction contest for Nat'l Merit Semifinalist cutoff

Paying for College National Merit Aid
1

<p>The National Merit Semifinalist announcements are in the mail. So how good is your crystal ball? It was posted in another thread that cutoffs will be published on 10-Sep. </p>

<p>The CONTEST
Guess this year’s PSAT cutoff for each state</p>

<p>The SCORING<br>
- Everyone starts with 52 points (50 states, plus DC & international)
- Lose a point for each point you are off. So if you guess CA is 222, but the actual PSAT cutoff is 224, you lose 2 points
- Perfect score is 52
- Top scoring guesser wins</p>

<p>The DEADLINE
09-Sep 11:59pm Eastern Time</p>

<p>WHAT TO DO
Copy and paste this grid below and fill in your prediction for each state</p>

<p>AL 000 ; IN 000 ; NE 000 ; SC 000
AK 000 ; IA 000 ; NV 000 ; SD 000
AZ 000 ; KS 000 ; NH 000 ; TN 000
AR 000 ; KY 000 ; NJ 000 ; TX 000
CA 000 ; LA 000 ; NM 000 ; UT 000
CO 000 ; ME 000 ; NY 000 ; VT 000
CT 000 ; MD 000 ; NC 000 ; VA 000
DE 000 ; MA 000 ; ND 000 ; WA 000
FL 000 ; MI 000 ; OH 000 ; WV 000
GA 000 ; MN 000 ; OK 000 ; WI 000
HI 000 ; MS 000 ; OR 000 ; WY 000
ID 000 ; MO 000 ; PA 000 ; DC 000
IL 000 ; MT 000 ; RI 000 ; Intl 000 </p>

<p>Here are previous years’ PSAT cutoffs, by graduating year:</p>

<p>2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014<br>
209 | 209 | 208 | 210 | 211 | 209 | 211 | AL
213 | 212 | 211 | 214 | 212 | 204 | 212 | AK
211 | 209 | 210 | 209 | 213 | 212 | 214 | AZ
201 | 204 | 203 | 203 | 205 | 202 | 205 | AR
218 | 217 | 218 | 219 | 221 | 220 | 223 | CA
213 | 213 | 213 | 212 | 215 | 212 | 215 | CO
217 | 218 | 218 | 219 | 220 | 218 | 221 | CT
219 | 219 | 219 | 215 | 217 | 215 | 218 | DE
212 | 211 | 211 | 210 | 214 | 211 | 214 | FL
214 | 215 | 214 | 215 | 218 | 214 | 217 | GA
213 | 216 | 214 | 215 | 216 | 211 | 215 | HI
204 | 208 | 209 | 208 | 211 | 207 | 211 | ID
213 | 214 | 214 | 214 | 216 | 213 | 216 | IL
213 | 213 | 211 | 212 | 214 | 211 | 215 | IN
209 | 210 | 209 | 209 | 210 | 207 | 210 | IA
212 | 211 | 211 | 211 | 214 | 212 | 216 | KS
208 | 209 | 209 | 208 | 212 | 208 | 211 | KY
206 | 208 | 207 | 210 | 209 | 209 | 209 | LA
211 | 212 | 213 | 213 | 212 | 210 | 215 | ME
221 | 220 | 221 | 220 | 221 | 219 | 223 | MD
223 | 221 | 221 | 223 | 223 | 221 | 224 | MA
209 | 209 | 209 | 209 | 210 | 207 | 210 | MI
213 | 214 | 215 | 213 | 215 | 213 | 215 | MN
202 | 201 | 203 | 205 | 205 | 204 | 207 | MS
211 | 213 | 211 | 210 | 213 | 210 | 213 | MO
207 | 208 | 204 | 208 | 209 | 203 | 207 | MT
207 | 206 | 207 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 209 | NE
208 | 206 | 202 | 208 | 209 | 208 | 212 | NV
215 | 211 | 213 | 214 | 216 | 211 | 214 | NH
221 | 220 | 221 | 221 | 223 | 221 | 224 | NJ
208 | 209 | 208 | 206 | 210 | 208 | 210 | NM
219 | 216 | 218 | 217 | 219 | 215 | 219 | NY
214 | 215 | 214 | 214 | 217 | 213 | 215 | NC
202 | 201 | 202 | 202 | 204 | 200 | 204 | ND
211 | 213 | 211 | 212 | 214 | 212 | 215 | OH
207 | 208 | 207 | 206 | 209 | 206 | 210 | OK
213 | 213 | 213 | 215 | 216 | 213 | 218 | OR
214 | 213 | 214 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 217 | PA
212 | 213 | 217 | 211 | 213 | 211 | 216 | RI
210 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 211 | 208 | 210 | SC
203 | 205 | 205 | 205 | 206 | 204 | 206 | SD
213 | 213 | 213 | 212 | 214 | 210 | 212 | TN
215 | 215 | 216 | 215 | 219 | 216 | 219 | TX
202 | 203 | 206 | 203 | 208 | 205 | 208 | UT
216 | 213 | 213 | 212 | 217 | 214 | 217 | VT
217 | 219 | 218 | 218 | 220 | 217 | 222 | VA
215 | 217 | 217 | 218 | 220 | 216 | 220 | WA
200 | 203 | 203 | 202 | 204 | 200 | 203 | WV
208 | 210 | 207 | 209 | 209 | 207 | 210 | WI
200 | 201 | 201 | 202 | 204 | 200 | 203 | WY
223 | 221 | 221 | 223 | 223 | 221 | 224 | DC
223 | 221 | 221 | 223 | 223 | 221 | 224 | Int'l</p>

<p>May the odds be ever in your favor... [-O< [-O< [-O< </p>

2

<p>My predictions. You’ll probably be laughing at me on 10-Sep. </p>

<p>SUMMARY:

  • LA is even
  • RI down 3 pts
  • NV ND OK VT VA WI down 2 points
  • All others down 1 point</p>

<p>AL 210 ; IN 213 ; NE 208 ; SC 209
AK 210 ; IA 209 ; NV 210 ; SD 205
AZ 213 ; KS 214 ; NH 213 ; TN 211
AR 204 ; KY 210 ; NJ 223 ; TX 218
CA 222 ; LA 209 ; NM 209 ; UT 207
CO 214 ; ME 213 ; NY 218 ; VT 215
CT 220 ; MD 221 ; NC 214 ; VA 220
DE 216 ; MA 223 ; ND 202 ; WA 219
FL 213 ; MI 209 ; OH 214 ; WV 202
GA 216 ; MN 214 ; OK 208 ; WI 208
HI 214 ; MS 206 ; OR 217 ; WY 202
ID 210 ; MO 212 ; PA 216 ; DC 223
IL 215 ; MT 206 ; RI 213 ; Intl 223</p>

3

<p>AL 211 ; IN 212 ; NE 209 ; SC 210
AK 209 ; IA 210 ; NV 211 ; SD 206
AZ 214 ; KS 213 ; NH 212 ; TN 210
AR 203 ; KY 211 ; NJ 224 ; TX 217
CA 223 ; LA 208 ; NM 210 ; UT 206
CO 213 ; ME 214 ; NY 217 ; VT 214
CT 221 ; MD 221 ; NC 213 ; VA 221
DE 217 ; MA 224 ; ND 203 ; WA 218
FL 212 ; MI 210; OH 215 ; WV 201
GA 215 ; MN 213 ; OK 209 ; WI 207
HI 213 ; MS 205 ; OR 218 ; WY 201
ID 211 ; MO 213 ; PA 215 ; DC 222
IL 214 ; MT 207 ; RI 214 ; Intl 222</p>

<p>I basically went up and down GMTplus7’s list, either increasing or decreasing by 1 point. :)) </p>

4

<p>It has begun.</p>

<p><a href=“http://southtownstar.suntimes.com/neighborhoodstar/frankfort/28662752-521/two-lincoln-way-grads-earn-national-merit-scholarships.html#.U_6cEVZnH1o”>http://southtownstar.suntimes.com/neighborhoodstar/frankfort/28662752-521/two-lincoln-way-grads-earn-national-merit-scholarships.html#.U_6cEVZnH1o&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

5

<p>

lol, you’ll probably win… </p>

6

<p>@onlythebest13, that article is about recent class of 2014 HS grads who got college sponsored NM scholarships, not the current crop of class of 2015 anxious kids and parents waiting for the new cutoffs. Hasn’t begun yet :).</p>

7

<p>Post deleted </p>

8

<p>@GMTplus7‌ You don’t think that any states’ cutoffs will rise, considering that there has been a general upward trend within the last few years? </p>

9

<p>Multiple years of data show an upward trending zigzag (plot it in Excel and you can see it). Last year was a zig. The lower PSAT average scores in this cohort hints at a zag.</p>

10

<p>I agree with you @GMTplus7 on these predictions and that this is a zag year. Sitting at 222 in CA… Have mercy!</p>

11

<p>i have 221 in CA… any hope for me?? :(</p>

12

<p>Unconfirmed anecdotes of CA 222 & TX 218 (states w large sample sets) would appear to confirm it’s a “zag” year.</p>

13

<p>For those that have been down this road before, is it okay to post the good news on social media before the official release on the 10th?</p>

14

<p>@mikefr, the official letter reads that it is to be kept confidential until the 10th. They bolded confidential. I had already posted something, and in a fit of paranoia, pulled it back down after reading that sentence. Just to be safe…</p>

15

<p>My predictive skills (top 15 populous states in Bold):</p>

<pre><code>ACTUAL | my prediction
AL | 207 | 210 | 3
AK | 210 | 210 | 0
</code></pre>

<p>** AZ | 213 | 213 | 0 **
AR | 206 | 204 | -2<br>
** CA | 222 | 222 | 0 **
CO | 213 | 214 | 1<br>
CT | 220 | 220 | 0 <br>
DE | 215 | 216 | 1<br>
** FL | 211 | 213 | 2 **
** GA | 215 | 216 | 1 **
HI | 214 | 214 | 0 <br>
ID | 211 | 210 | -1<br>
** IL | 215 | 215 | 0 **
IN | 212 | 213 | 1<br>
IA | 207 | 209 | 2<br>
KS | 213 | 214 | 1<br>
KY | 210 | 210 | 0 <br>
LA | 208 | 209 | 1<br>
ME | 212 | 213 | 1<br>
MD | 221 | 221 | 0 <br>
** MA | 223 | 223 | 0 **
** MI | 210 | 209 | -1 **
MN | 215 | 214 | -1<br>
MS | 207 | 206 | -1<br>
MO | 209 | 212 | 3<br>
MT | 206 | 206 | 0 <br>
NE | 209 | 208 | -1<br>
NV | 208 | 210 | 2<br>
NH | 212 | 213 | 1<br>
** NJ | 224 | 223 | -1 **
NM | 210 | 209 | -1<br>
** NY | 218 | 218 | 0 **
** NC | 212 | 214 | 2 **
ND | 201 | 202 | 1<br>
** OH | 213 | 214 | 1 **
OK | 206 | 208 | 2<br>
OR | 217 | 217 | 0 <br>
** PA | 216 | 216 | 0 **
RI | 212 | 213 | 1<br>
SC | 209 | 209 | 0 <br>
SD | 203 | 205 | 2<br>
TN | 212 | 211 | -1<br>
** TX | 218 | 218 | 0 **
UT | 208 | 207 | -1<br>
VT | 213 | 215 | 2<br>
** VA | 219 | 220 | 1 **
** WA | 219 | 219 | 0 **
WV | 201 | 202 | 1<br>
WI | 208 | 208 | 0 <br>
WY | 204 | 202 | -2<br>
DC | 224 | 223 | -1<br>
Int’l | 224 | 223 | -1 </p>

<p>Well, at least I got 8 out of the top 15 most populous states right. Lol, just as bad as my stock picking skill… :stuck_out_tongue: </p>