Knowing the value of test scores (ACT/SAT) my DDs both had ‘baseline’ ACT and SAT at end of sophomore year of HS. Both DDs could move their ACT score. Both also had PSAT testing/scores. Some students test more ‘naturally’ than others. In our state (AL) GPA of 3.5 plus strong test scores means merit $$ for our public colleges. We used test prep, private tutoring; DD2 needed to move the score more and thus tested more and had more preparation. We kept first semester senior year a bit lighter to allow the best outcome on testing (DD1 took ACT Sept and Oct - got the score needed at Oct sitting; DD2 took ACT Sept, Oct and Dec and got the score needed - she also took the SAT in Sept because the reward was $$$ and it was worth another stab at SAT; at that point to be going from half scholarship to full tuition scholarship plus departmental scholarship money increase. Dec was the last test score her college (UA) would take and she got the score needed. A huge relief.
Another factor is using the MS/HS years to figure out student strengths and potential career options. ‘Finish in four’ is key. We made it clear that with their college degree, they need to figure out making enough money for their lifestyle. Certainly if they wanted to continue to graduate degree or professional degree, we could look at that along the way. However both DDs decided to begin their careers with their UG college degree.
H and I were married 15 years before having DD1, so we were DINKS (dual income no kids) for a period - moved quite a bit for H’s career in early years, and second income was sometimes less with graduate degrees acquired. We are not ‘high’ earners but also not living in high COL areas either. Then H’s travel schedule and no family around meant living on one income for many years. However the time value of money for retirement has paid off for us - when money got tighter, we were able to decrease 401k contributions after cutting out IRA/Roth IRA contributions. Now I am in ‘sunset career’ with us having just 2.5 years until we both are 65 and able to retire (H is 4 months older than me).
Some families do put higher value on specific colleges where they have to pay a lot more. My sister had much of her take home pay to supplement the merit at private college for her two sons, who thus had no UG student debt. Both sons are doing great in their careers - it was a good move for them.
Many students do want the ‘sleep away’ experience. However that may not be what works out.
Sometimes there is a fantastic school within commuting distance of parents’ home or relative’s home. Saving on room/board is a big help. However the student may not see the value in that. To me, I would then give the student the choice to take a gap year and work FT to save up enough money to make another choice more affordable - most students will want to start college at the same time as their peers.
The four year merit is during a specific window for HS seniors who have the GPA, test scores, other requirements for application etc (most specifically meeting the deadlines).
Visiting schools early enough - you never know what life will throw at you. When DDs were in 8th and 10th grades, I was diagnosed with aggressive stage III cancer - thankfully I survived and am cancer free going on 10 years (July), but very intense treatments and total medical interventions over 15 months and then another year of two major surgeries.
Some students may struggle finding their niche - it is a transition from HS to college that some students do not master - so IMHO it is very important to visit enough campuses early in student HS years (we visited many in our geographic area - and H and I had experiences in distant states too) so parents and students can see what is out there. Learn about the colleges, degree plans, internship and co-op opportunities, etc. Student learning is building - having strong reading/English and math all along - motivated student taking advantage of educational opportunities where they are planted. If they make the most of HS learning/opportunities, make the transition to college.
I can tell you it was like a boulder was lifted off my shoulder when DD1 got her college degree. At that point we knew DD2 would also be successfully completing college. HS grads of 2012 and 2014 became college grads May 2016 and May 2018.
Best wishes on the journey!