<p>Let’s see if I can address some of your responses to my posting:</p>
<p>First, jeffanddan did a great job in using “statisticspeak” for the invalidity of your data, hopefully you can accept that. I also disagree with the validity of number of posts equaling prestige of program. Same thing with Broadway appearances - what role did the former student play in the production? Singer who dances or dancer who sings (chorus role), lead? How many years since graduation? How many Broadway productions? Some kids (ingenues and leading men) come out like gangbusters for five years and then can’t do a thing, they’ve never figured out how to progress beyond ingenue. Character actors need at least five years to grow and develop. What about those who find success in film/television? While Broadway might be romantically a goal, tv/film pays way more, and some former students may wind up in that genre through their agent. Does that make their college program equal to those with Bwy cast member? Oh and then let’s not forget that some of these kids (again, mostly ingenue/leading man type) enter with huge talent so the school just needs to nurture a bit to get them where they need to be; wouldn’t that skew your numbers?</p>
<p>Basically, your statistics work for you based on your pre-conceived notions, they do not correlate or validate anything. Your caveats that you have listed prove that point. And in the end, you will find that your daughter will choose based on very little to nothing that you have spent much time researching. The only guarantee in this whole process, in this whole field, is that there are no guarantees.</p>
<p>This whole thing reminds me of realtors trying to figure out what a homebuyer is looking for - there is so much emotion involved, it is just not possible. </p>
<p>Again, enjoy, keep yourself busy, but please don’t try to scientifically approach the “best” programs and convince everyone you are correct; there is nothing scientific about it.</p>
<p>Another thing to consider is the concept of correlation vs. causality. Two variables can be correlated, but not have causative effects on each other. For example, there are studies that demonstrate girls who watch soap operas have a higher incidence of weight gain issues. They may be correlated, but one does not actually cause the other. Our original poster here is apparently looking for correlates to what would be the “best” MT program for his daughter, and he has chosen the number of posts on this site vs. Broadway roles as his analysis tool. They may very well be correlated, but have absolutely no causative relationship. Thus you might make decisions based on faulty use of data.</p>
<p>To our original poster, you probably know all this if you have a statistical background. You indicate that hard data can be useful; it can also be harmful if misinterpreted. Based on watching my D perform now for 4 years and having gone through the audition process, there is little if any hard objective data to go by in this process. My advice would be for your D to attend a program where she feels she connected with the faculty and other students, where she feels she will get good training and be “stretched” as a performer, and where she thinks she can see herself enjoying life as a college student for the next 4 years. After all, there are many who will tell you that there’s no need to go to college to make it on Broadway!</p>
<p>I think there is still something interesting to glean from the OPs data even if it is not statistically valid. #1 - if there are many people posting/talking about a school , it is a good indicator that it is a program we might want to investigate further. We may find the large number of posts either show a program on the rise or point out a program that has some controversial issues which are causing people to talk about it. Either way, if lots of people are posting about it, it’s probably worth looking into further to see what everyone is posting about, #2 - I think the number of graduates working on Broadway or anywhere in the industry is very interesting although I understand these numbers also aren’t accurate. They still show schools that do have working alums which is nice to know. Alumni networks can be very valuable in securing those first professional jobs. I don’t think it matters whether those alums are employed in the chorus or in leading roles. I’m sure my D would be thrilled to be a part of any Broadway show upon graduation no matter the size of the role. The fact alums are working shows that the school is producing employable graduates. However, the biggest thing I’ve read that we all need to keep in mind is as follows: just because you are rejected from a certain school does not mean you won’t be successful in this industry and just because you are accepted to certain programs does not mean you will be successful. At the end of the day, each student, not their schools, is responsible for their own success. But I appreciate everyone’s time and effort in trying to help us make sense of this crazy process! I find all of the data and posts interesting and helpful, so thanks to you all :)</p>
<p>Besides the other problems noted with the data in the OP, one issue is that not all of these schools were added as CC sub-forums at the same time (the list has been growing over many years which makes the data in the OP highly questionable). Since I did post the same data about 20 months ago, it is possible to compute the posts since July 2011 - this changes the order of the list considerably:</p>
<p>NYU/Tisch 644
University of Michigan 483
Ithaca College 417
Pace University 407
Carnegie Mellon University 331
Point Park University 269
Ball State University 268
Northwestern University 232
Cincinnati College Conservatory of Music 224
Coastal Carolina University 212
Boston Conservatory 190
Elon University 172
Otterbein University 152
University of Hartford - Hartt School 137
Texas State - San Marcos 122
Syracuse University 116
Ohio Northern University 111
Montclair State University 104
University of the Arts 104
James Madison University 102
Shenandoah Conservatory 96
Indiana University Bloomington 88
Webster University 88
Oklahoma City University 85
Pennsylvania State University 85
NYU/Steinhardt 81
California State University, Fullerton 74
American University 68
University of Miami - Florida 65
Baldwin-Wallace College 63
Florida State University 62
Westminster College of the Arts - Rider - 50
Muhlenberg College 44
Northern Colorado University 44
Roosevelt University 41
Wagner College 40
Millikin University 39
University of California - Irvine 35
Marymount Manhattan College 31
University of Arizona 27
Emerson College 23
Viterbo University 22
Wright State - 20
University of California - Los Angeles 18
SUNY at Buffalo 14
University of Southern California 14
Texas Christian University 13
SUNY at Fredonia 12
Temple University 11
Sam Houston State University 9
University of Oklahoma 9
Illinois Wesleyan - 6
University of Central Florida 5
Western Michigan University 4
Santa Fe University of Art and Design 3
Catholic University 1</p>
<p>If you look at it on a percentage basis, you get a possible indication of “recent growth in interest in various schools on CC” and the order of the list changes further:</p>
<p>Northern Colorado University 220%
Texas State - San Marcos 182%
Ball State University 175%
Coastal Carolina University 101%
American University 67%
Westminster College of the Arts - Rider - 60%
James Madison University 59%
Pace University 56%
Northwestern University 52%
Millikin University 44%
Ithaca College 41%
University of Miami - Florida 35%
Point Park University 34%
NYU/Steinhardt 32%
Indiana University Bloomington 28%
Shenandoah Conservatory 26%
University of Michigan 24%
SUNY at Buffalo 23%
University of Hartford - Hartt School 23%
Montclair State University 22%
University of California - Irvine 20%
Viterbo University 20%
Texas Christian University 20%
Sam Houston State University 19%
Wagner College 18%
Florida State University 17%
Cincinnati College Conservatory of Music 17%
California State University, Fullerton 17%
Boston Conservatory 15%
Pennsylvania State University 13%
Carnegie Mellon University 13%
Wright State - 13%
Otterbein University 13%
Elon University 13%
SUNY at Fredonia 11%
University of California - Los Angeles 11%
University of Southern California 11%
NYU/Tisch 11%
Muhlenberg College 10%
Syracuse University 9%
Santa Fe University of Art and Design 8%
Baldwin-Wallace College 8%
Roosevelt University 8%
Webster University 8%
University of Arizona 8%
Western Michigan University 8%
Marymount Manhattan College 7%
University of the Arts 7%
Temple University 6%
University of Oklahoma 6%
University of Central Florida 5%
Oklahoma City University 5%
Emerson College 5%
Illinois Wesleyan - 4%
Catholic University 1%</p>
<p>I think that all this tells you is explicitly what the data measures, the recent growth in interest in CC among various schools, which may or may not be of interest, to each his own. And now all we are measuring is 20 or so months of data, which may not mean much. Of course, CC is likely to be plagued with various biases that skew the data from much use, including geographic bias (probably more East-coasters), socio-economic bias (probably skewed toward higher income), gender bias (probably more moms than dads), personality bias (maybe only certain types of people bother with message boards), etc. Also, some schools are very effective CC marketers while others are not.</p>
<p>The best way to find out which programs are the most respected in simple. Ask as many legitimate agents and casting people in the business as you can. Some will tell you their opinion, some will not. If you don’t have access to these people, try searching the internet for quotes.</p>
<p>I’m not sure I’d ever surrender the definition of “best” to anyone. (You’re using the description “most respected” but the OP said “best” so I’ll go with that one.) I suppose if you did ask a casting agent which program they most respect, you would get exactly that answer - the one THEY most respect. OK could be an interesting and perhaps even very important data point. But “best”? No that one I’d have to decide for myself.</p>
<p>I found the study by by Alan Krueger (Princeton) and Stacy Dale, “Estimating the Return to College Selectivity over the Career Using Administrative Earning Data” to be very interesting as they concluded:</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>In other words, they could not find statistical evidence that attending a highly selective college made a difference in earnings over the long term for students of similar abilities (as measured by SAT scores, and with the exception of certain sub-groups).</p>
<p>I always wonder if this applies to MT schools…</p>
<p>My apologies, but I don’t see the point of this at all, especially the recent growth stuff. All that means is some active CC student or parent posts a lot about their school. So what?</p>
<p>I’m long past the college decision making process. My D is a college junior. I’ve had the pleasure each year of being on campus to see her in a show during at least one of the on campus audition days for her school. I always go over and hang out and make myself available to the parents of the prospectives (okay, I actually go hang out to get to visit with the students I know and the faculty but still) who might have questions for a parent. I often get asked about how my D made her decision to attend CCU. She was truly blessed to have a number of really terrific options. But once she made the visit to CCU, sat in on classes, met the faculty and students, did all the stuff you do during a visit, she started to feel like this school was the place where she “fit.” The place she could imagine herself training for 4 years. Where she could learn and grow as an actor and as a person. </p>
<p>Is her school one of the “best” in the country? Well it certainly has been a great program FOR HER. And it seems to have been a very good choice for other as well. My D’s class was the first to enter as BFA majors. Prior to that, the school had offered an auditioned BA. When the transition was made, some of the BAs already attending auditioned into the BFA, and the first ever BFAs graduated last year. That first BFA graduating class is now out in the real world, using their training. Two are on cruise ships - one on the Disney Dream and one on Roayl Caribbean. One is in San Franciso working as an actor/diretor/choreogrpaher. Another is working regionally in film. Another regionally in theatre. One is getting ready to head out on tour. And another is int he thick of auditioing in NYC and things are looking bright for him as well. There are pre-BFA graduates working as well. One on Broadway currently.</p>
<p>My D has been repeatedly challenged in her program. She texted me during rehearsals for the spring show she was in and told me it was the most difficult role she had ever done. She’s an MT, but this was a straight acting role. She was working with an absolutely wonderful director and I had no doubt that she was working her behind off. When I saw the show, I was entralled by it. And by her. By who she is becoming as an actor. I could see those 2 1/2 years of training staring me in the face. And I was thrilled.</p>
<p>So enough of my rambling story. Take it for what it is - one parent’s highly personal experience with her D and one school. But in the end, isn’t that what this is really all about?</p>
<p>EmsDad: I love the update, thanks for posting your info. I think your data is actually more useful than the simple stuff I posted (still a rather poor form of school comparison, but it can be useful if put in the proper perspective). And thanks for leading me to your 2011 posts, numbers have changed a bit but still give the same general impression of top schools. I also believe that dividing by the number of entrants into the program is the more useful metric.</p>
<p>I love stats and thank mtprag & emsdad and others that provide a lot of info that most of us would not have the time to compile. Also, I have to say, my personal top six or seven programs are included in mt prag’s top 26 or so programs. However, I think this is not how to pick a program. I think considerations of prestige, reputation, affordability, various (and ever changing) accounts of successful alumni (on and off Broadway), location, facilities, size of program/school/surrounding area should all be considered when making a decision. I think bigger issues are level of personal mentoring and general “feel” for the overall program (current students, faculty, staff). No decision should be made without campus visits, if possible seeing a performance or maybe rehearsal, checking out a class or two. The student is going to spend four (hopefully not 5) years living out their choice. The program needs to feel right. Again, and ultimately its the fit the counts in the end. If the stars align and you feel right at a top tier school you can afford - go there. If the smaller program seems like where you want to be - go there. In the end much of your success comes down to the effort you put in - and that can happen in many institutions. Best wishes on your journey!</p>
<p>Stats are kind of fun to play around with and think about, but that’s about the extent of it for me (ok, its also kind of fun to see some of the reactions from people that hate the thought of reducing everything to numbers [maniacal laugh]).</p>
<p>I should point out my favorite line from “Big Bang Theory”:</p>
<p>Wow, I am not a statistician, that’s for sure. All of this is making my head hurt! But I think the op is missing some important data: none of the numbers matter unless you are talking about the schools your daughter was accepted to! I mean, otterbein only takes 8, right? But that has no bearing on our decision process because we did not apply there! Mtdog and austinmtmom are right about the perfect fit for your daughter. It’s something she has to feel, not read about. There’s too many kids that go to college (all programs) based on the reputation, but that’s not what it is about at all. Look at the schools she has been accepted to and try to visit each one, talk to students, etc. so many posts on cc discuss that aha moment that their kids had when they found the perfect school for them! Good luck!!!</p>
<p>mtdog: I’d say your paragraph sums it up very well as I see it. Prestige, reputation and alumni success are a big part of the process (i.e. deciding which schools to investigate, which ones to apply to, and which one to attend), but these factors are at best 50% of the equation, and many on this board would probably say lower. Although I think most people would be lying if they said they’d take a full-ride at a bottom tier school versus a full ride at say CMU, even if they thought the bottom tier had a better feel (note, I said most, I realize there will be exceptions). For those of us that don’t have access to casting directors and agents (most of whom will have different opinions as it is), one of the best ways to get a measure of prestige, reputation and alumni success is to look at actual data, which is what I am doing. </p>
<p>Best fit, general feel, etc. are all highly personalized opinions, and there is no way to inform others in these areas, except for telling them to take these factors seriously and perhaps provide recommendations on how to try and develop a general feel (and thank you for your input). With my pragmatist hat on, I feel obliged to mention that a general feel based on 2 or 3 visits is not necessarily an accurate metric either - it’s still largely an initial impression, and some schools might “sell” themselves better than others. The good news is that the posts I’ve seen indicate that most people seem happy with their choice, instead of the other way around.</p>
<p>It seems you are going to use numbers how to want you use them regardless of what has been discussed. I wish you well, and hope that by doing so it does not inadvertently guide your child to the wrong program for her.</p>
<p>MTpragmatist, I appreciate your bravery because I knew the minute I read your heading that you were in for it. Big time. :)</p>
<p>I really don’t think the number of posts on cc are that relevant, but I would love to see your playbill research. That one makes more sense to me!</p>
<p>And if anyone is interested in killing an afternoon, I’d be very interested in seeing a list for Academy Award Nominees too!</p>