Son (well qualified, no financial aid need) is debating between Rice and another school for ED. Rice’s current freshman class was over-enrolled by around 90. Will Rice compensate for this over-enrollment by reducing the size of next year’s freshman?
Probably not because they’d have trouble in 3 years when those extra 90 students leave. What is likely to happen is they’ll be sure not to over enroll again this year.
This question came up at a recent information session at Rice. The AO said that Rice would not reduce the target class number for the class of 2022. I agree with @twoinanddone - I think they will be more careful about not over enrolling for the class of 2022. Perhaps this will translate into accepting fewer students and going to the wait list if needed. Only time will tell. Based on the CDS, it looks like Rice only took 1 from the waitlist in 2016, and I suspect Rice did not use the waitlist at all this year based on the fact that they over enrolled.