So why are acceptance rates dropping so much

What changed this year?

It’s because more students are applying to more and more schools because the common application makes it convienient to apply to many schools. Now that the majority of schools use common app, students can easily apply to many schools for less additional work. So students could be applying to 20 or more schools nowadays, which increases the number of applications colleges have to sift through and ultimately reject.

Increased applicants = increased number of rejections = lower acceptance rate

No change. This trend has been going on for years.

1-Because you all are applying to too many schools.
2- international applicants keep increasing.
3-Everyone is applying to the same top 100 schools. Those are the ones that have dropping admit rates.

Besides students applying to more schools, I also think more schools are admitting ED applicants in much greater numbers than in previous years. This leaves fewer open spots for the majority of (RD) applicants and drives down the acceptance rate.

That is an overstatement. There are more and more colleges on CommonApp, but it is far from majority. But you may safely say most of the popular colleges at CC are on CommonApp.

It has to be something more than kids submitting many more applications; a kid can only attend one school, so every kid submits 10+ applications, yield HAS to go down (on average) so schools will (on average) have to accept more in raw numbers than previously. It’s just math. The trend has been this way for many years; likely ever increasing numbers of students (not applications per student) both domestically and from overseas, while brand new colleges are not springing up like dandelions.

When you look at the “hit or miss” on ivy admissions this year, it’s staggering. Kids who are rejected from Brown and Penn and Cornell get into Columbia and Harvard and vice versa. It allows you to believe that it is more of a crap shoot than any of us want to believe. But there’s a feeling if you just apply to all 8 ivies, of course you have to have top GPA and stats, you may just get into one. But if you only apply to one or two as a reach, you may miss your shot.

With significantly lower acceptance rates almost everywhere, applicants would almost certainly apply to even more schools in the next application cycle. Guess what will happen then? There’s no end in sight.

“so every kid submits 10+ applications, yield HAS to go down (on average) so schools will (on average) have to accept more in raw numbers than previously”

This is correct for the majority of schools. But i would have to guess for the top 10 or 15 (?) the yield doesn’t change. It just adds more into the rejection bucket. I think that is why the CTCL end up with high acceptance rates/low yields and the “HPYS-xyz” schools have highly compressed acceptance rates. Not sure, but it makes sense.

@1NJParent I agree. Many universities (especially top 50) had record-low acceptance rates this year, and it seems that more and more people are being waitlisted. I pity my future children, as the rise in demand for a college degree, along with what you said, is going to make the competition so brutal in the future.

@catpb I agree with you as well. Now I feel that kids are going to have to start worrying about college earlier so that they can choose an ED school that is perfect for them because colleges are increasingly relying on “demonstrated interest”. I didn’t even know what ED was before senior year, but I am a first-generation student so that may have contributed to my ignorance on the topic.

Too many applications from each person is definitely an issue. Common app should limit people to 10 and see how many people apply to all 8 ivies then.

Not only are they going to have to start thinking about colleges earlier, but preparing for them earlier. When I was in school, no one took high school classes in Jr. High. Honors classes were only for the kids who were supremely and extraordinarily talented in a subject and there were no AP classes. I took a few honors classes in English because it was my favorite subject and I was able to go to an IVY. We also didn’t “weight” classes because everyone was presumed to be in regular classes. If you took an honors, it was only because you really wanted to because you loved it.

I recently read on the home page of a private college counselor that they now begin coaching kids as young as 8th grade. They bragged about how they encourage kids to do extra academic work in their free time. I know there are kids out there who naturally do this. They love science and want to do science all the time, but for the ones that need a coach to tell them to forget the school play, or simply being with friends so that they can do extra research — I think its a little overwhelming.

On the other hand, as so many people have pointed out every time these trends start to make me sad, no one “has” to be part of the madness. There are, and I trust will always be, schools for the great kids who want to hang out at the park during their free time.

Here are my reasons and lessons for future classes…

1) More people applying to the same bunch of "Top" Schools. Basically all the "Top 50" schools in the USNWR are the targets. Many of these schools have generous financial aid, so many students are applying with the hope and prayer that they will get the favorable packages to attend these schools.

2) As acceptance rate goes lower, students need to apply more schools to even out the odds. That's a feedback loop to #1.. and there goes the cycle.

3) Increasing use of ED/EA. Schools can fill 50% of their classes with these spots. Especially with ED1 and ED2, schools can fill 50% or more of the incoming class and that leaves very few spots available for the RD round. Overall acceptance rate is driven by the number of acceptance in RD, with fewer spots available, of course the acceptance rate will go down.

4) Increasing use of Waitlist - In the name of enrollment management - with low acceptance rate all over and students applying a larger number of schools, yield management can get tricky. Also, with WL,the school can "unblind" the financial needs and allocate the spots accordingly (as driven by their own financial situations and meet the so called "100% need met" stats - why not pick the kids with the highest GPA/SAT combo and can do full pay off the list and give them only a few days to maul over the decision).

5)Fewer spots available for the "unhooked" applicants - If you are unhooked, you need have the most work cut out for you when you apply to the "Top" schools. These schools like to expand their "diversity" ranking, and that means for you unhooked ORMs out there, fewer and fewer spots are left open for you, even you are applying in greater numbers than ever.

6) Rankings game - driven by acceptance rate, yield rate, and the aurora of being a famous "brand" with ever increasing number of applicants... and the diversity ranking game - who doesn't want to talk about their incoming class is from 120 countries of the world and all 50 states in the US. So if you are applying from NY, NJ, CA for the non-state "Top" schools, good luck.

Lessons from this cycle -

1) Get everything ready by the end of the Junior Year. GPA/SAT/SATII/ACT/APs - spend the whole summer to get the essays done, and apply EA and/or ED.

2) EA/ED schools must be realistic with your stats. You may think you are top Ivy material, but reality is you are not. Look at the schools that fit, with good rankings, and hit the ball and apply EA/ED. I have seen so many kids who got into EA/ED with stats in-line with the general past averages of the school and yet kids with HIGHER stats than those EA/ED kids been rejected/WL in RD this cycle. It will only to get worse next year.

3) Apply to schools with realistic financial calculations. How often you hear the horror stories of - OMG, I got into my dream school, but wait, the financial package is horrible, there is no way my parents can afford this.. and try to appeal the FA with the schools.. etc etc. Seldom this tactic works with the "top schools". They have plenty of kids willing to do full pay in their WL, if ever they need to pull one from the list.

4) Don't underestimate the competition against the same demographics, same majors, same type of schools if you are not one of those "hooked" candidates. If you are an Asian Male applying to comp sci, engineering, BME, Pre-med to the top "STEM" schools, you are not competing against the general average of that school, but the particular demographic/major of that school. Some schools have "one school admission policies" - why not apply straight Physics or science policy major and do the internal switch to engineering or BME later? Of course, the major you pick has to be related to your interest, school activities, and essays. But there is wiggle room to go around and not joining the same insanely competitive crowd over pre-med etc.

Just a few observations.

My family is finally done with my S’s application this cycle. Having gone through 3 cycles, we are glad it is finally over. It’s been incredibly stressful at times with tears and joy mixed in between. My S was rejected ED by a school he thought he liked… then a week later he got into CWRU EA (~ 40 spots higher in USNWR if that matters at all) with merit… and then he got into UMich EA… then JHU RD in March… and rejected by 3 others (RD) following in March. Including the local state flagship and two other “safeties” - he applied 10 in total. We were wondering had he been accepted by the ED school, what would happen to the story. The lesson from him was - some schools are meant for you and some are not. Look at the schools who want you and not the ones you need to force yourself to like them. Good luck to every student in this cycle and future cycles.

@Mickey2Dad Great response, you broach most of the subjects I was considering. In the end, it’s the work ethic that decides the prospects of the student, not the institution. Congratulations to your son!

And there are some colleges that want to decrease their acceptance rates so they waive the application fee to get more applicants.