UChicago received the largest ever early applications. 13,000 for ED1and EA. Total admission from that was 9 %…About two thirds of the admits were ED1. This is startling when you consider the substantial double digit early admit stats for the other top peer colleges. It is also in line with this year being the most competitive by far for all college admissions.
If these numbers are accurate, let’s play them out…
A 9% accept rate on 13000 apps = 1200 early accepts. If 2/3 of those are ED1 accepts, that means 800 accepted ED1. (Put another way, if the target class size is about 1450, that means 55% of the class come from ED1 accepts.)
Of the 400 remaining EA accepts, per past numbers, around 250 (60%) will attend.
That means at least 70% (800 ED1 + 250 EA Accepts = 1050 early accepts) of the class comes just from EA or ED1.
If we assume that ED2 will merit at least another 50-100 accepts, we have about 75% of the class filled early (1050 EA/ED1 Accepts + 100 ED2 Accepts = 1150 early accepts, for a target class of 1450).
That means that all Chicago needs to fill out the class is maybe 300-350 RD matriculants. Figure about a 50% yield on RD admits, and you only need to accept about 650-700 people in the RD round.
The final figures, then, could look something like this:
Total accepts: 800 (ED1) + 400 (EA) + 100 (ED2) + 650 (RD) = 1950 total accepts
Total apps: 13000 EA/ED1 + _____ ED2 + _______ RD = (to keep the numbers similar to last year, let’s say 30,000)
Estimated accept rate: 1950/30000 = 6.5-7.0%
Estimated yield: 1450/1950 = 74%
With a switch in policy, and no care for filling a class with 75% early admits, Chicago’s yield will probably be top 3 in the nation, and its accept rate top 5.
How long until other tippy top schools go ED1 and ED2? Just switch the policy and enjoy a 15% bump in yield! (It looks sneaky, but who cares!)
Informative analysis Cue7. But I don’t think we’ll see Harvard and especially Stanford go that direction. I think this whole thing is near the end point based on diminishing returns. And Harvard / Stanford will have the strength to stand up and stick with REA only.
Oh I wasn’t thinking Harvard/Stanford - I was thinking more Northwestern, Hopkins, Penn, Duke, etc. If Chicago sits at a 6% accept/75-80% yield for the next several years, while Penn, Duke, NU, etc. are more in the 10% accept/55-65% yield, how long until other schools chafe at the perceived (and probably distorted) sense of separation?
Make no mistake, after a certain point, this is simply about manipulating stats for diminishing returns.
Chicago yield last year already was over 60%
And applications total will increase this year.
I agree with @Cue7. HSPY stand on their loft perch and they wouldn’t react (or at least in the next few years). Duke, UPenn, NU and other mid-size and mid tier in the top 20 will follow suit. However, I don’t see Brown, Dartmouth and the top LAC adding EDI and EDII. They seem to appeal to different crowd and their smaller class size may preclude them from joining the full scale admission game.
I have mixed feeling towards U of C playing the full court admission game. On the one hand, I feel U of C deserves all the recognition and prestige among common people (high school students 
). On the other hand, I am really uncomfortable that they are the first one in gaming the system. Will it bring in the wrong type of undergraduates? Time will tell.
I agree with you - this just seems like blatant gaming for little gain. Last year Chicago had a 8% accept rate and 60% yield. Why did they need to get to 6% accept and 70% yield? The only thing that changed was a petty policy shift (ED1+ED2).
There won’t be much (if any) difference in aptitude between last year’s class and the incoming class. Why further manipulate the numbers for such little gain?
(My guess is there are admin bonuses riding on this.)
Very interesting. Amazing how a simple policy shift can rocket you up to the top of the leader board. U Chicago will be viewed in a much more positive light given the high yield and low acceptance rate. They will be among the best schools in the nation which is the whole point of the policy change.
They were at 7.6% last year. They already are among the top of the top in the US and the world.
My biggest question is whether the rise of yield and lowering of admission will all be a mirage. I can see Columbia, Duke, UPenn, JHU, NU, Cornell, Vanderbilt, WUSL or even Notre Dame all having EDI, EDII and EA (and maybe SCEA) by 2020. By then even HSPY may decide to join in the fray to protect their yield. Everyone is back to square one again in 2020.
Indeed if this admission war game continues and profligate, I can see in five years a significant percent of students and parents will be forced to commit early to one choice. This may lead to more mismatching between school and students. Yet we parents are helpless and we just have to roll with the punch.
This is more than an early game. The numbers are now so huge due to the global education competition that the percentages will continue going down no matter what…
Wow, this is pretty incredible. Can I ask where you got these numbers?
Numbers were disclosed at an official reception hosted by UChicago for admitted students of the class of 2021.
The only thing wrong with @Cue7 's analysis is that I think the target class size is probably closer to 1,550 than 1,450, and I suspect the RD yield will be less than 50%, especially if they are only accepting ~650 kids and they target the strongest applicants in the pool. I think there could be another 200-250 RD acceptances, maybe some of them from the waitlist. But that wouldn’t change much.
@JHS - is the target class size really still 1550? I thought, for several years, the College overshot enrollment, and is now trying to dial that back to their target range (the ~1450 range).
If having 1550 still means students living in International House or other temporary housing, that seems sub-optimal to me.
These were similar numbers that were disclosed to me as well but included EDII targets.
ED I - 450
EA - 350
ED II - 400
Will not leave many for the RD round and the yield will not fluctuate much.
It seems from the group chat of admitted students that D is part of, more and more EA kids are committed too!
How come there is no reception in our city?!
Great analysis @Cue7. The major question I have is about EA yield.
There are two countervailing forces at work here. The availability of ED would push down EA yield, but UChicago’s stature would push it up. My guess is that EA yield will drop a bit, to perhaps 55%.
In 5 years these top schools won’t offer RD anymore. That’s my prediction.