<p>‘Downgrading of SLC bonds implies that investors, who put the money on the table, are fleeing. No investors to soak up student debt> no student loans. Whatever the interest rate program or scheme, without the private investors, loans volume would be degraded.’</p>
<p>The additional problem is that SMC was (and is) massively over leveraged. For example they recently got into the very high risk arena of selling underwriting health insurance. So the investors are fleeing for that reason also. It could be that the Obama/Duncan contingent sped up the move to direct loans as a counterbalance to a looming and very massive credit bubble in the making. </p>
<p>SMC holds about 40% of the 580 billion of student debt in this country. And of that amount much of it is grossly inflated in value. One common practice by these companies has been to artificially inflate the principal on these loans by fee enhancements-its not uncommon for those cursed with SMC educational loans to have their amount increase by 20% or more. Plus these companies do like to drive these loans into default, (not wanting to make arrangements with borrowers) because after the resale (often to subsidiaries) and other fee enhancements the total amount can increase by 50% or more. So not dissimilar to CDS’s the value of these instruments has been grossly inflated. And their clientele has been pushed to the limit of what they can pay. So it won’t be a matter of hypothetical students walking away from loans, it will be that these have been so inflated by predatory lending practices that even those who intend to pay them, won’t have enough resources to do so. </p>
<p>“Toadstool, I agree. I have predicted this for some time … student loans are headed for the bail-out queue.” </p>
<p>Actually its already happened, about 1 1/2 years ago the federals gave the corporate educational lenders billions to ensure ‘liquidity’. The problem is SMC, NNC which are the largest of these companies are used to federal money propping up their questionable practices, but they are so massively over leveraged, and have inflated their instruments so much (at incredible social costs, and the ruin of families, students and the middle class)-that there isn’t enough money to bail these corporations out. </p>
<p>The problem is the whole situation didn’t have to happen. Largely the trouble started in the late 70’s with the privatization of Sallie Mae, and it was compounded by sweetheart regulations and laws provided by people like “Buck” McKeon. </p>
<p>And its worse for the economy as a whole. Student loans, along with other predatory forms of lending such as disreputable credit cards, and shifty mortgages and etc have put the middle class on the brink. Too much of their assets have gone to these people as opposed to be directed into the consumer economy, such as the products of GM and Chrysler. </p>
<p>Its also part of a generation long problem, the middle class has not seen any meaningful increases in their buying power/status, since the 1970’s. “The onrush of technology largely explains the gradual development of a “two-tier labor market” in which those at the bottom lack the education and the professional/technical skills of those at the top and, more and more, fail to get comparable pay raises, health insurance coverage, and other benefits. Since 1975, practically all the gains in household income have gone to the top 20% of households.” (CIA 2009) So what’s happening is the middle classes are compelled to borrow to maintain what earlier had been obtained by wages and etc. So the unfettered borrowing Kelsmom mentioned may have been a manifestation of that problem. For a good lecture on the matter (which does mention the problems of student loans) might look up Dr. Warrens essays and lectures about the disappearence of the American middle classes.</p>
<p>So there’s much more to the Duncan/Obama initiative to provide some reasonable alternatives to the student loan mire, they may have initiated these reforms being quite aware that the federally subsidized student loans are a massive credit bubble about to collapse, and that educational costs are an instrumental detriment to a already shaken middle class.</p>