<p>So do you believe that if unemployment ticks down to 7 ish, housing prices will perhaps increase modestly? My fear is interest rates will follow the economy upwards(if the economy does increase) and put lid on home sales and prices…historically home prices and interest rates have had an inverse relationship, until recently,lol…so what concerns you more inflation or deflation?</p>
<p>Thanks
Qdog</p>
<p>I don’t think that unemployment will tick down to 7% anytime soon. I did read today that Macy’s will be hiring 4,000 “high-paid” employees, mainly as buyers for their stores.</p>
<p>The $INDU is nearing 13,000, the $COMPq is approaching 3,000, gasoline prices are going up and the landlord for our kids’ apartment is raising the rent. They cite rising costs and they are right - the city has been cranking on property and other taxes and we’ve had the same rent rate for five years. The kids are moving out in a few months so the increase won’t affect them but I definitely smell inflation.</p>
<p>That said, the labor participation rate continues to go down which is not a good thing for taxes and deficits. I assume that people are choosing not to work for reasons other than that they need to given that U6 ticked up.</p>
<p>The new unemployment claims number this past week was 348,000 which is the lowest that it has been in several years.</p>
<p>Oil prices keep rising. It will be a problem so I don’t think unemployment will tick down either.</p>