<p>"CCer applying w/no ECs, no APs, etc, just being top of class w/ good SAT scores applying EA has a 26% chance at Stanford."</p>
<p>you're not considering all the variables. Yes, one chance would be "26%" if one were to have those 3 factors you've mentioned (eg SAT, EA, class rank)...but we all know the admission process is a much more complex system than that.</p>