<p>mathboy, forget my Wiles reference, it can be misleading. The elite colleges do value high academic ability, hence Harvard enrolls approx 50% of those who score 2400. Not all of them will turn out to be academic superstars, some may even struggle with Math55 etc. Similarly, Harvard may take most Intel/Siemens winners, again not all, and only some of them may turn out successful. The adcoms certainly don't have some crystal ball as to an individual's future but make informed guesses. Sometimes they are right, sometimes wrong and we only know the times they are right. Same goes for faculty advisers. For every adviser who predicted the phenomenal success of a student, many predicted wrong and we will never know, social psychologists call this the survivorship bias.</p>
<p>To return to the subject, the elite colleges are not interested in admitting all the top academic students, hence there is no need for them to devise tougher and tougher tests/curriculums. They are interested in capturing some small percentage of the top students and for this purpose, a combination of high SATs, APs etc will do. For the rest of the student body, they want to admit those who can graduate, who will successfully earn a B or B+, that's all. They are creating a mini city, a civic body, so they want journalists and footballers, violinists, social activists and a small minority of academics. If you can imagine that in any American city the true scholars are only a small part, a minuscule part, then you can see why the university wants to reflect in its composition the mix of the city.</p>
<p>Hence, diversity of color, gender, race, etc. Let me put it another way; if the Ivies admitted only the academically meritorious they will be like UC Berkeley without affirmative action: all Asian, number of whites, almost no blacks. Then they won't be Ivies, they will be
IITs. And no one will want to go there!!</p>
<p>A number based system, and that's what it will be if you have your new test or new curriculum, will be lacking interest, one dimensional, boring, everyone there will be good at "going to school". The Ivies want to turn out Yo Yo Ma, Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Rajiv Gandhi, Hank Paulson, they want an interesting mix of students, and in the sense that we are occasionally stunned by their admits and rejects, continuously surprised by the admits and rejects, they are on track, they have earned our fascination and interest. </p>
<p>UC Berkeley and IIT won't turn out, at least highly unlikely, world class pianists, tennis stars and Nobel laureates. The Ivies do. They hunt for promise. To have some grand new test or curriculum that identifies the next great physicist, what fun is there in it? To take the application of a black student from an OK inner city school and see in him the making of a federal judge, that's the job I want. </p>
<p>I spoke to the adcoms of the Ivies my son got into, it was amazing how they read his file, the nuances they picked up, their reasoning. I believe they are doing an incredible job. </p>
<p>Please read Karabel's book, The Chosen. Read articles from the ATlantic on college admissions, there was a series some 4 years ago.</p>