Stanford early-action: are my chances realistically above 50%? If not, what about these others?

Chance Me / Match Me!
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<p>I'd appreciate some honest opinion of my realistic chances of getting a positive answer this coming December for early-action application to Stanford. </p>

<p>My general profile: female, interested on computer science, skipped 2 grades before high-school, live in a small island and attended a tiny high school (only one).</p>

<p>GPA: 4.0, rank: 1 (doesn't matter much, class is smaller than 15). </p>

<p>ACT composite: 34</p>

<p>I self-studied and then took the following AP exams (without attending AP classes, which just are not offered at my school): Statistics (4), US Gov't (5), Biology (4), Chemistry (3), Microeconomics (4), Macroeconomics (3), Computer Science (5), Calculus AB (4). French (2).</p>

<p>NMSP semi-finalist</p>

<p>Our school simply doesn't have the bodies needed for bands, sports, arts programs or anything much, plus most kids here really don't care. The island is well known for families with middle-school kids leaving for elsewhere, something my parents couldn't do due to their careers. As a result, I have just a few extracurricular activities, like a 3-year blog about environment and weather patterns in our island and a serious-ish photography hobby, and couple other online activities like volunteering to be conversational online partners of ESL students through a NGO (before they booted me for being too young). I attended Stanford summer program last year.</p>

<p>Is it realistic to expect my chances to be at least on the 40-50% range? Should I just forget about it and mentally prepare for rejection already? </p>

<p>If I don't get in, with those stats and profile, what are my realistic chances at Caltech, Harvey-Mudd, UCLA, USC, UT-Austin, UC-Boulder?</p>

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<p>Wow, a class size smaller than my sons, <60. Stanford and Caltech would be unlikely admits at least well below a 40% chance. It really is a numbers game. If you have a hook that will separate you from all the other 4.0, high ACT female applicants then you should certainly highlight that in your essays. Try not to get stuck in what you didn’t do because of what you didn’t have, concentrate on what you did DESPITE what you didn’t have. Good luck!</p>

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<p>Sorry to break it to you, but you have absolutely no chance with those AP scores at Stanford. </p>

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<p>Above 50%-- no. That said, literally no one is above 50%, except Leland Stanford’s great grandchildren.</p>

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<p>Why would you think your stats would be above 50%? They accept about 5% of applicants, and most of them are as qualified as you are. And some are hooked (URM, legacy, athlete, etc.). I suppose the island angle might be a bit of diversity… But your chances aren’t any better than 5%, IMHO. Focus on your other schools and applications. </p>

<p>Just curious, are the other schools on your list affordable? Have you run net price calculators on them? It is hard to chance you, partly due to your age. I can see a school like Mudd being wary of admitting someone who is younger than the average freshman and doesn’t come from a really rigorous academic background. </p>

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<p>Last year’s early admit rate was about 10% and most applicants look very much alike… You must make your application stand out in some way so, yes, mentally prepare yourself for rejection- then anything else will be a nice surprise!</p>

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<p>My parents ran all the numbers on those Net Price Calculators, and they filled a mock version of that online federal financial aid form. We have all the simulations on a spreadsheet here, and reference amounts of maximum loans I should take and maximum contributions they will make, plus a college fund (not a big one, mind you) my late grandfather has set. </p>

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<p>What’s the breakdown of your ACT score?</p>

<p>Attending the Stanford summer program means nothing, tbh. What exactly is NMSP?</p>

<p>Sorry to say but AP’s don’t play a role in admissions. </p>

<p>You have the same chance as anyone else applying REA.</p>

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<p>Last year’s admit rate was 5.07%.</p>

<p>OP, are you sure your parents ran the net price calculators on each college website, and not just the EFC calculator on the FAFSA website? That EFC calculator on the FAFSA website says nothing about what it will cost you to go to a given college. Unless you are in-state, you will get pretty much no aid at UT-Austin, so you will be paying full price if you get in.</p>

<p>I have to ask how you picked the schools on your list. They don’t seem like the best choices for a gifted 14 year old (mostly large state universities and a couple of pressure-cooker tiny STEM schools).</p>

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<p>@‌Unitize the AP scores barely matter in admission process itself. </p>

<p>OP, there is NO ONE in the world that has 40% chance to get in Stanford unless you are like Sheldon Cooper or a genius with a similar calibre. I have to say that you must be quite smart. </p>

<p>Try to look for larger schools that offer better opportunities </p>

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<p>The OP is asking about Early Action…Stanford’s early admit rate was 10.8% @intparent‌ </p>

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<p>The rate is higher partly because they encourage their athletes to apply EA. Her chances are no better in the EA pool than in the regular pool if she is unhooked (and no hooks are apparent).</p>

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<p>Prob a solid 20%.
Some people’s shots are definitely above 50% at hypsm, an Asian female with no hooks at my school last year got into Stanford MIT Harvard Yale upenn and Columbia and was waitlisted at Princeton. Nothing out of the world, just played by the rules and obtained the best leaderships and the standard research internship (~2 a year from our school) and had a 4.0/2400. Participated in a sport and music. Don’t tell me she was that incredibly lucky …
The difficulty is High to get into these schools, but it’s overstated. If you are the “perfect applicant” you will have about a 50% shot at least.</p>

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<p>This isn’t a perfect applicant… from a high school class of 15 students. Strong ACT, but not perfect. No exceptional ECs or talents. AP scores are a bit mixed. Young for the entering class. Most interesting aspect is probably location/small community. That probably isn’t enough to tip the scales for Stanford, or put her anywhere but in the middle of the pool of applicants for Stanford. Which puts her odds at… about 5%.</p>

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<p>Last year I checked my D’s chance with Parchment and a few other sites for Stanford with ACT 35, 800 in SAT2s, 5 in APs, GPA 4.0, and the chance was ~20%.</p>

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<p>Agreed Billcsho.</p>

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<p>I think you have an interesting background and your application will be read closely. Scores of 3 on AP tests normally hurt but the chem test has only 5 percent or students getting a 5. The challenge for the admissions officer is trying to understand how much of a handicap growing up on a small island is. Students who prepare themselves for AP tests under circumstances like yours get a break. Good luck!</p>

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<p>@timezonegirl - does it matter what your chances are now that you’ve submitted your application? Whatever your chances, you still need to prepare other applications to submit if you do not get accepted to Stanford.</p>

<p>I looked at your posting history and I think your biggest issue is going to be your age - you state you have skipped several grades and will be 15 next fall. It’s likely that you will find colleges that will let attend but only if you live with family or close relatives, and not on campus. Others may chose not to consider your application due to your age. You should be calling the admissions departments of every university you intend to apply to in order to learn their policies - otherwise, you may be wasting your time applying to colleges that are unable to offer you a place.</p>

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<p>As to the small island, while it is certainly part of the narrative of your personal statement, it has to be also included in a much larger story. That is to say, do you have cultural ties, historic, are there distinct disadvantages you have overcomed that should be highlighted? My two daughters are from a small island and one graduated from Cal the other currently attends Yale; both made compelling personal statements about being indigenous and the ties to their community–you need to create a story…</p>

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From OP’s other thread, it appears that in addition to being only 14, she has had zero college counseling, so I think what we have here is a combination of naivete and, to use a harsh word, ignorance. If, despite the recommendations against attending college at age 15 found in the other thread, the OP is determined to go that route, I think the CC mavens would be able to offer some valuable advice about realistic and appropriate college choices. Personally, I can’t imagine why any college would want to accept such a young student unless she were a clear genius–the kind who qualifies for a human interest story on TV or online–and while OP is certainly bright, I don’t think she’s at that level. </p>