Stanford unpredictability

<p>I've heard from many people both on CC and real life that in Stanford admissions, once you have a 2200+ SAT (with at least a 700 on each section), a top 5% rank, and strong EC's, then the process becomes very unpredictable at that point. Would you say this is an accurate assessment?</p>

<p>Stanford is absolutely not “unpredictable.” Based upon the sample of kids in my high school who were accepted, rejected or deferred this Fall, here is what happens:</p>

<p>Predictable:</p>

<ol>
<li><p>Hispanic, 1800+ SATs, no interesting ECs – IN</p></li>
<li><p>Black, 26 ACT, three sports, varsity, athletic recruit, no ECs – IN</p></li>
<li><p>White, 28 ACT, three sports, captain, legacies, no ECs – deferred</p></li>
<li><p>White, 36 ACT, one sport captain, legacy, big ECs – rejected</p></li>
<li><p>Black, 32 ACT, no sports, big ECs, legacies – rejected</p></li>
<li><p>(Asians in school applied elsewhere)</p></li>
</ol>

<p>Conclusions:</p>

<ol>
<li><p>Be Hispanic and be a reasonable academic and you are in.</p></li>
<li><p>Play lots of sports at varsity level; try and be “ranked” in them</p></li>
</ol>

<p>OOH, I’m a hispanic with possible 2200+ SAT, a kajillion EC’s, almost 4.3-4.5 gpa range, president of like 3 clubs. I should try!</p>

<p>Interficio: yep, you fit the profile!! Definitely apply!! Best of luck!</p>

<p>BTW, I was accepted at Stanford, but my first choice is MIT. </p>

<p>ACT: 35</p>

<p>Some good external research. </p>

<p>Essays they liked. Here, actually, Stanford is unpredicatable, as I understand that the essay responses they like tend to be “quirky.” Mine weren’t THAT quirky . . .</p>

<p>The campus at Stanford is to die for (the entry alone, through the palm trees . . .). However, MIT is right on the Charles and the romance of seeing the city across the river and the crews going up and down each morning . . .also very nice. I know it sounds strange (in the context of California cliches), but MIT just feels (to me) more wild, with more opportunity and rigor to it.</p>

<p>Anyway, we’ll just have to see what April brings. . .</p>

<p>There’s something so beautiful about Boston, even though from experience it’s a ruder version of DC. (In 8th grade I was cursed out by a guy at quiznos for opening the door for him). I know nothing about CA, anyone care to divulge experiences?</p>

<ol>
<li>Hispanic, 1800+ SATs, no interesting ECs – IN</li>
</ol>

<p>I assure you, there are many, many “Hispanics” who were rejected at Stanford with the above stats/resume…</p>

<p>Give the school more credit than that!</p>

<p>I’m still trying for it. It has good classics. I just need more information about the campus and urban environment</p>

<p>Well, I had moderately quirky essays. I thought it could have been better though. We shall see.</p>

<p>I’m an Asian with a 2370, a 3.9 and a ton of extra-curriculars, officerships, state-level awards! We shall see if I get in!</p>

<p>There was one girl at my school who applied EA, but she didn’t get in. She’s a great person, but her numbers weren’t quite good enough, I guess. </p>

<p>I know two people from my school got in last year. One was class prez and a ridiculously good writer (he got the ONLY 100 my AP English II teacher has ever given out on an essay). The other was kind of a ***.</p>

<p>I lived in California for a year following Hurricane Katrina-- spend half in Thousand Oaks and the other half in Albany. Admittedly, it was a lot nicer than New Orleans (I feel like such a traitor). 'Twas much more pedestrian friendly, and a much more convenient place to live in general. Also much cleaner. I liked it a lot.</p>

<p>It’s not that unpredictable. You have to understand the mission and the criteria. For example, last year 15% of the freshman class were the first in their families to attend college. I’m guessing that it’s not just about being Hispanic - it is also about being first generation and the `distance traveled.'</p>

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<p>I’d respectfully recommend you take an introductory statistics course wherever you wind up. ; )</p>

<p>^lol</p>

<p>Once again, curse the other Asians before me for being good students. (._.)</p>

<p>Zeno: I specified my sample size. I know statistics, thank you.</p>

<p>I would agree that Stanford admissions is very unpredictable. </p>

<p>I know several students from my high school who were rejected by Stanford and accepted to other prestigious schools. One of these rejects is at Harvard (She is Hispanic, was a 3-Sport Varsity Athlete with 2300 SAT, and she was also accepted to MIT and Cornell), another at Princeton, and another at Northwestern. This year, I have 3 friends who applied EA to Stanford. One (asian/athlete/academic) was deferred, one (white/valedictorian/great ECs) was rejected, and another (musical prodigy, accepted to Juilliard, genius) who even had a letter of recommendation from a current science professor AT Stanford, was rejected.</p>

<p>This goes to show that having a certain profile WILL NOT guarantee an acceptance or denial from Stanford - or at nearly any college, for that matter. Difference colleges look for different qualities in applicants every year, oftentimes depending on a growing program the college has, the amount of ethnic diversity in the previous classes, etc. </p>

<p>Once you reach a certain level of qualifications, there’s no telling how your application will be received. If you’re a high-school all-star, you’re among the norm of Stanford applicants, and the admission committee may or may not look upon your app with favor. It’s just the way it goes.</p>

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<p>Then I think you should know that merely specifying a sample size so absurdly tiny in relation to the data pool doesn’t render it statistically meaningful as an estimator or predictor. It’s nothing but a random data point. You’re welcome. : )</p>

<p>Adchang, we have pretty similar profiles then. Asian, 3.96 with a 35 ACT plus 12 writing.
Class President for 3 years, Student Body President for 1, Football Captain, 2 other varsity sports, FBLA Vice Pres, Academic Competition team 2x Captain and All-County selection, newspaper editor, a couple other officer positions, Theater (musical), Saxophone, and Choir among other things.
I was rejected early action as were 10 other friends of mine (we’re all on the east coast). I know of 2 people who did get in, one was a recruit and the other was from an underrepresented state.</p>

<p>Lemme offer a summary of my school’s Naviance.</p>

<p>Here are the stats of five acceptees, SAT and GPA. In simple terms, a 4.4 is the highest weighted at my school, and people rarely ever make that. Ya’ll know how the SAT works.</p>

<p>At the very bottom is a kid with a 1700 and a 3.5 GPA. I have no idea who he or she is, but that’s pretty ridiculous. Either their parents were rolling in cash (unlikely), they cured cancer (seeing I haven’t heard of that, I guess not), or had some insanely amazing life story and the ability to write about it. Yeah, he makes the “average acceptance” predictor go way down.</p>

<p>2250 4.3</p>

<p>2270 4.3</p>

<p>2380 4.4</p>

<p>There have been a lot of rejects, a majority with over a 2200 and 4.0. I know I’ve only given 4 sample points of accepted people, but apparently over the last 5 years we’ve had 9/42 be accepted, or maybe 22%.</p>

<p>I can’t match those who I know with their scores, but I can say a little about them. </p>

<p>-One kid who got in was the State Student of the Year, a genius at Speech and debate, had amazing grades and was African American. Also top 10 in class.</p>

<p>-Another kid who got in had a 2400 SAT, 36 ACT, went to ISEF at least twice for math/physics and got Questbridge. He was also African American. He was accepted to every school he applied too, which included Harvard, Stanford and Princeton, and turned town a full ride form Stanford for MIT. He was the sal too.</p>

<p>-Last year, the guy who got in was Class President, and a great writer and speaker, far as conversation goes. (I mentioned him in my earlier post). </p>

<p>-And then the girl who got in. I know she did volunteer work and some sports, but nothing exceptional. Not even top 10 far as grades go.</p>

<p>Pretty crazy results.</p>

<p>

It is probably not a stats problem but a counting problem. There are 258 high schools in Louisiana, and there were only 5 people enrolled at Stanford last year. Even with 50% yield (as compared with 72% overall), Stanford accepted no more than 10 people from Louisiana last year.</p>

<p>This year’s admit rate will be about 6.8%, compared with 7.1% last year. The admit rate is the second highest of all schools. Too bad Harvard is going to beat Stanford again, in terms of admit rate.</p>

<p>Both a stats and a counting problem, ewho. And so long as Harvard keeps its application so simple to submit (with mainly a bunch of boxes to check, and only an optional essay), and also sends paper copies of it to thousands of people every year, it’s likely to keep its admit rate incrementally lower than its peers. The whole admit-rate thing is getting pretty hair-splitty down in this single-digit territory.</p>

<p>

mmm… It is probably true. Sometimes I don’t like to think in stats. More than often, stats is abused. It makes me to think that going to North Pole for 5 days and Africa for 5 days are the the same as to staying home for 10 days. The world we are living is probably a deterministically chaotic “thing”. Sometimes we have to come up with some “probabilistic” ways to enhance our confidence while it comes to make judgments. </p>

<p>I told me son that I am not going to argue with him in math till he finishes his 2nd year in college. :)</p>