<p>the stats convo () was interesting.. can we try to asses probability of being accepteed ta ONE? who knows what yours chances are at a specific school.. but can we get an estimate on ebing accepted at ONE?</p>
<p>Umm....ok?</p>
<p>8 SCHOOLS. CHANCES OF GETTING ACCEPTED AT ONE.</p>
<p>4.0/98% SSAT's..going on to higher level core requirements bcuz i've finished all sophomore requirements... college classes (personality psychology, art appreciation, intro to ethics)
good recs/well written, creative essay
amazing interviews
good past experience in sports but not playing now (school doesnt offer)
lots of community service, accomplished equestrienne, some unusual hobbies
art/photography
technically behind in math (will be prepared for calc by fall 07, but only have algebra and geometry on transcript)
white, public school, applying for 11th grade</p>
<p>I think you'd have to do a checkbox to find out your chances. (i.e. ten traits or assets of your application, interview, SSATs) then take off points if one is not strong on a scale of 1-10.
Example: 3.7 GPA (7 points off because let's say each GPA point is worth 25 points out of 100% because it's out of 4.0 - so a 3.7 would be a 93%)</p>
<p>SSAT - 97 (97% chance)</p>
<p>Interviews - poise, dress, content of speech, personality - each worth 1/4 ... so if you mess up on dress you get a 75</p>
<p>Then:</p>
<p>Recommendations
Effort in Previous School
ECs </p>
<p>ETC.</p>
<p>this is intense.</p>
<p>Are you serious with this thread? I hope not. If so, you missed the point which I think bearcats was trying to make by bringing up the stats and which he has consistently made in a lot of his posts. Most of the schools which dominate this board are reaches for almost everybody. There is no analysis that can make you feel better about your chances. Each admission decision is not a random roll of fair dice. The dice are weighted. Many of the threads on this board are speculating about how the dice are weighted for particular applicants. The result of one roll does not directly affect the outcome of the next roll but the dice are similarly weighted with each roll for an applicant and so there may be some correlation of outcomes but the outcomes can be different in the different environments in which the dice are being rolled. Unless you know the impact of the weighting on the dice and how those weighted dice are going to interact with each environment there is no analysis to do.</p>
<p>"Unless you know the impact of the weighting on the dice"</p>
<p>umm that's what my objective was when posting.</p>
<p>this is probably not relevant whatsoever,
but I was looking through the Harvard forum and...so many people got accepted by early decision. I was on page 2 or 3 (out of 13) and there were 14 people accepted already. Of course, some weren't but there were more people accepted than rejected.
Crazy smart CC kids...</p>
<p>wow.. were their stats like, good, but not WOAH amazingGGGGGG...ness.... etc. ? oh were some like, lab rats for mit, etc?</p>
<p>Msu -- I certainly agree that are some exceptionally bright kids on CC. However, please keep in mind that many people who are rejected will not post that information. The ones who got accepted tend to post.</p>
<p>non-response bias..that's what burb parent is talking about</p>
<p>If you enjoy statistics applied in non-standard ways read "Freakenomics". Stephen Levitt is a very smart guy. I have read some people who took issue with some of his analysis in that book but it is still interesting.</p>
<p>My son and I both enjoyed that book!</p>
<p>I read that as well. Some of his correlations are either faulty or rather obvious, in my opinion though. However, it was a fun read.</p>
<p>haha i loved that book- that guy is awesome. :D</p>
<p>I remembered this discussion about statistics and probabilities from a few months ago and thought I would revisit it with a new question. Say there is a school that chooses to send a significant number of acceptances out on a Friday afternoon for overnight delivery on Saturday. By the close of business on the Monday after that Saturday what is the probability that there are a material number of acceptances that either the school chose to send by regular mail instead of overnight delivery or that the overnight delivery service has not yet delivered? Seems pretty low to me. Feel free to criticize me for being negative, but at this point I think it is just being realistic.</p>
<p>And some went out earlier than 3/9. One we had on Saturday was postmarked 3/8.</p>
<p>You should have maybe schools,safes,and reaches.I only got into my safes.</p>
<p>Since you asked.....blairt, being ahead in a CA public school system is probably below average at top preps. They are overwhelmed with kids who've been to the best school's in the Country since preschool and are highly accomplished. Art appreciation and psyc are not going to get you a lot of points. </p>
<p>And you're an athlete or you aren't as they see it. You have an art portfolio or you don't. </p>
<p>Then add in needing $$. I think you're going to find there isn't a lot for middle class kids from expensive zip codes. </p>
<p>Reread your early posts. Hopefully it's more understandable now. Posters said applt to more safeties. I think you made a typical assumption, believing Tabor was a safety without considering financial safeties.</p>
<p>The purpose of these posts now should be to help next year's kids. So please everyone, post your results as openly and honestly as you can.</p>
<p>I think that's a good idea, posting stats and results on the Prep School Decisions thread. I'll do that as soon when I get my final decisions back. It might be helpful for next year's applicants.</p>