@mountain88 - S has applied to two excellent state schools (where he would get full tuition). He does not want to go to one, and he would be fine going to the other (although not the best fit). The rest of his list includes mostly reach schools (in terms of acceptance or getting a big scholarship). The NPCs are not accurate for us due to divorce and being self-employed, but it is likely that the most selective schools would be affordable. So, S knows that all of his efforts on essays etc. may not work out (even if he gets accepted to a reach school) if the finances don’t work. He is very cost conscious but I’m still worried about him being disappointed. He is willing to take his chances and is realistic about finances. However, if I knew NPCs were accurate and the schools were definitely out of reach financially, he would not be applying to them. This is so stressful as a parent and I can very much relate to your dilemma.
Maybe your son could visit the actual departments of interest at the “free” schools and meet with some professors. He might end up liking what they have to offer and enjoy being wanted as a “big fish”. The opportunities offered to a student at the top of the applicant pool can be significant.