<p>Generally, speaking of orchestral instruments, if you consider how many of each instrument you find in a symphony orchestra, you can get an idea of how competitive things might be. For instance, there are 2-4 flutes in an orchestra, and considering how many youngsters play flute in middle and high school, that is a lot of competition. The same thing is true for trumpet and clarinet. When you get to the more expensive instruments to buy and difficult to play, things ease in terms of competition. Instruments which require an innate sense of pitch just to make the notes (strings, slides-trombone and overtones-horn instead of keys-clarinet and valves-trumpet) are more difficult, and fewer kids pursue them far enough to be competing. Another issue of how many youngsters stay with an instrument is the convenience factor. How many lug around a string bass or a tuba, compared to the flute or the violin? [The viola, however, is always a good instrument to play, harder to play well, fewer pursue it, and no orchestra ever has enough really good players.] Many of the major schools will have very few openings each year in instruments like the flute and the trumpet. Then if you look at the numbers of students at a school, you can get an idea as to whether there might be enough students on campus (not necessarily as music majors) to stock the orchestra and the marching band. Apparently at the major conservatories, the heaviest competition is in piano, violin, flute, female voice.</p>
<p>The talent thing is so hard to discern. While I am a trained and educated musician, when it comes to my own children, I am almost clueless about their "talent", I am just too biased and invested. My solution has been to encourage them to enter competitions and to put themselves up against the best, to see how others would judge and rank them. [All-State is a nice designation, but unless your young musician plays one of the rarer instruments, it probably is not of value as a hook. If your child is concert mistress/master or principal in their instrument, it means more. However, it will probably qualify your youngster for a scholarship at music camp at your state university, and that is a good arena to test the water.] These competitions are not necessarily in world arenas, but rather against other players/singers of their age and experience. If they come out on top, that is a sign of encouragement. If they were never to advance, it would be a message of "enjoy your music but as an avocation." These college auditions serve the same function, and it is far better to find out now how well they stack up in the performance arena than after several years of college. </p>
<p>From chatting with other parents at conservatory auditions, I have learned quite a bit about how things are in the different instruments (including the vocal instrument) and how the networking happens in those fields. Between that opportunity and the wonders of CC, we should all gain better perspective on this adventure!</p>