Pretty close. I’d make this clarification:
I’d say that’s about right for full pay applicants to need-aware universities. For applicants needing aid at need-aware universities and for all applicants to need-blind universities, the acceptance rate is about a third
I get it.
It’s hard to accept that your swimmer has to accept a drop in, say, prestige because they aren’t fast enough.
The farther you fall down the list, the more uncomfortable it gets. And you have to figure out how far down the list you are comfortable going before it’s too far and you would rather have prestige and not swimming.
These are tough calls for teenagers to make. It was tough for my kid. I’m just glad he found his place and is happy (even though his school is not very prestigious).
OP, do you have access to the equivalent of Naviance at your school? Where you can actually see the stats of accepted kids?
I will tell you that, at our school (where at least 10 go to Ivies every year), exactly ZERO unhooked kids have gotten into with Brown or UVA (OOS) with a sub-1500 in the last 5 years. Brown is, IMO, so far of a reach that I would strongly strongly consider eliminating it in favor of a more realistic school (unless, of course, she would be truly happy to go to a Canadian school safety). For girls, Brown may as well be Harvard.
Do you have access to your school’s data? Curious what the numbers are like for an international school…
But of course, the higher prestige/selectivity school, she likely will not get accepted. So there is that.
I don’t know what the OP is saying that now it is a vibe thing and not selectivity, as selectivity has been the undercurrent theme for the entirety of the thread. So now the most likely spot is McGill, a school she has not visited in the winter, which has a completely different vibe than any of the other schools on the list - swim schools or the Hail Mary super reachy schools.
I don’t understand why Bowdoin is on the list, after OP reported that she didn’t pass the pre read.
This depends how much the kid is prioritizing sports vs using the sport as a super boost to get into a selective college. The process path you describe would be typical for a sports first kid, with some cut-off on their list where the non-recruit schools come into play, which is likely pretty far down. For the school first kid, that cutoff may be fairly high and with a large gray area. My kid was in the latter camp. He was “in play” at a few of the Ivies until mid August and then heavily recruited by academic D3’s. He narrowed it down to 4 D3 where he did full OV’s, including attending classes on Fridays. At the end of the day, he wanted a larger university experience and went REA, foregoing the bird in hand. My W and I were fine with that because we were also school first in our priorities. Like OP with McGill, it was less of a gamble because he had already secured a place in an honors program at our flagship through rolling admissions. The calculus may have been different without a good safety option in hand.
For OP, the question is where and if the D should use her ED shot. Do 1 or 2 schools stand out as clear favorites? The list looks to be prestige focused because we have some very disparate choices to me when we talk about “vibe”, the primary drivers of vibe being size and urban vs non-urban. I don’t poo poo prestige as a legitimate factor, so if that is the driving force, then ED should be between Brown, Cornell and Amherst.
I am not sure posters understand how uncommon an IB predicted score of 44/45 is (which makes sense because most in the US aren’t familiar with the IB curriculum and scoring). This student attends a rigorous international school. The mean actual score from May 2023 was 30.24.
While I understand this is a predicted score (and I hope it’s coming from the school), colleges commonly see predicted scores from international students and it’s rare to see one of 44+. (8.55% of actual scores from May 2023 were 40+). Perhaps @myos1634 can add insights.
AOs will put much more weight on the IB predicted score than the SAT (although I don’t know which of their schools OP’s D is submitting the test to).
But wouldn’t the test be viewed as some confirmation of sorts? Would most kids with such high predicted score have a high SAT score?
Isn’t a 1480 97th percentile on SAT?
I know there are schools who get precious about hitting 1500 but that really is just being precious*.
*Yes I know schools can be as precious as they’d like, just trying to point out that 1480 isn’t some terribly low score, nor indicative of a student who would be at all out of place at any of the schools listed.
Exactly. And transcripts have always been more heavily weighted than a 3 hour test. And IB predicted scores from the GC of a rigorous high school (again, assuming) > SAT.
Of course I understand where we are in today’s landscape as test scores are inflated at many US schools. The inflation of reported test scores is unsustainable as ultimately we will get to only 1600s/36s being submitted if applicants only submit when they are at the previous year’s median or above.
Was she able to visit all of these schools? Hard to get a “vibe” without actually being on campus.
Personally, I think OP’s best shot of getting into one of the “prestige” schools on her list (no judgment!! this is important to lots of kids) is to ED at Amherst. They have a 32% acceptance rate for ED (quite a bit higher than most of their peer schools) and have been test optional for quite a while…
If she could potentially walk-on – all the better.
Best of luck!
I understand that but the reality is that few students are accepted with those scores and/or are routinely encouraged not to submit (and like someone posted - Naviance does point to correlation between high test scores and acceptances.
I disagree. Amherst, being a small school, ED is overwhelmingly comprised of athletes.
Based on our school’s data, I think Tufts ED offers significantly better odds (than Amherst). I think OP has a decent shot if they ED based on academic and financial profile.
Yeah, that is a good point. However they don’t have more athletes than their peers, right?
Here are the ED acceptance rates for some of their peers:
Williams: 27%
Swarthmore: 19%
Bowdoin: 17%
Tufts is another good option – but they don’t disclose their ED numbers (annoyingly). But you’re probably right – given Tufts’ much bigger size, the ED pool will have less athletes, proportionally.
I also think OP would be extremely competitive at Middlebury (ED) – but it’s not on the list.
Amherst’s Class of 2027 ED acceptance rate was 26% (191/736)…I don’t know how that compares to their peers last year. Not only do you have to remove athletes from that 191 of accepted students but you also have to remove other advantaged applicants including questbridge and those who attended Access to Amherst.
The number of athletes alone in that 191 could easily be greater than 50%, broken down between athletic factors (what Amherst calls those with full coach support of which there are 67 each year and the vast majority coming in ED), and another 60-90 per year of ‘coded athletes’ (basically those with coach support less than full support, many go thru ED too).
I asked OP previously if they are applying ED to any of the schools on the list if their D goes the non-recruiting route, and they haven’t yet replied.
I was using class of 2026 numbers above (from the CDS). All of these admits are extremely difficult – just positing that Amherst & Tufts are the least difficult of the options. What is your view on best chance for the listed US schools?
I am unfamiliar with the IB system and it is interesting to learn from the many experienced posters on this thread.
If the predicted score is not coming from the school, wouldn’t it be meaningless? And where else would a predicted score come from?
I can’t take a view, because I don’t know the student’s HS and their record of placement in US colleges…and that matters a lot in international admissions. It is far more nuanced than figuring out who has a relatively higher ED admit rate after stripping out hooked candidates (which naturally would favor schools with relatively larger undergrad populations).
ETA: Also…OP’s D, if considering an ED app, should choose the one she prefers.
That is typically how it works. I just leave the possibility that obviously I don’t know that for sure in OP’s D’s case.
Those would be tough as well and I’d also advise against it (as a strategy - is OP felt one was a definite #1, sure). Tufts, like you said, is bigger. They don’t disclose number but famously yield protect and regularly reject extremely strong applicants in RD. I think it’s a safe assumption that a significant portion of the class is filled through ED.
In no world I would qualify Amherst as easier than anything. If for nothing else, they are very invested in meeting their institutional priority and have made it their mission to increase access to less advantage groups. This would not favor OP.
Other than Tufts, out of this group, I think Cornell would make the most sense as an ED strategy.
For the record - I think ED should be reserved for a true top choice, not as a strategy, but given OPs goals of studying in a recognized US school, maybe strategy should take precedence once they’ve landed on a list they would be happy to attend.