Swimming Recruiting for Int’l Jr. Targeting Highly Selective Colleges

Athletic Recruits
2349

probability of acceptance to 1 (or more) Canadian School + probability of acceptance to 1 (or more) US school

Probability of swimming as recruit/walk-on + Probability of swimming club

2350

So, you’re posting some sort of combined probability thing that you have already calculated, based on an assumption of discrete/independent probability distributions that are likely not the case (as well as a host of other unknown/non-stated assumptions).

There are lots of “chance me” threads on CC. This seems like a new genre: “chance myself”. That’s where we are after almost 2,500 posts?

3 Likes
2351

As evidence mounted several months ago that swimming was less a passion and more a parent’s hoped for admission hook to an ultra-prestige school, I predicted the following - along with a fellow CC member:

OP would:

  1. apply ED/REA to a non-swimming opportunity school;
  2. be admitted to, and subsequently decline, McGill - irrespective of an available swimming team spot;
  3. attend UC Santa Cruz or UC Santa Barbara, with the intention of transferring to UCLA/UCB in 2 years.

I think this Prop bet is alive and well.

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2352

there is zero chance she will choose to attend UCSC/UCSB over UT/McGill, simply because UT/McGill have higher global rankings, qualify for almost full ride scholarships from her place of residence, and are altogether substantially cheaper. Case closed.

If @Sportprep is convinced otherwise, we can register a $5000 bet on this.

1 Like
2353

Wishing @NiVo the best of luck.

Betting on a child you don’t actually know is highly inappropriate. Even though you seem to think you do know her, College Confidential is not real life. Couldn’t get anymore toxic. Admire @NiVo for taking the high road. The gutter is an ugly place!

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2354

I think it would help, if the OP just started another thread once the colleges begin to send out acceptances. It’s clear this is no longer a recruiting thread.

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2355

Maybe not recruiting per se, but still a related perspective. How will a sport (and related) as ECs impact acceptances? If I remember correctly, most of her ECs revolved around swimming.

I know a lot of people feel like if you don’t use it for recruitment it adds nothing to your application. Call me naive, but I have a really hard time believing that.

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2356

I don’t think you’re naive at all. That’s a great idea. People shouldn’t have to wade through 2500 posts in order to contribute to it.

2357

I desperately hope that OP actually updates with acceptances and final decision.

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2359

@yolo2 Exactly!

If NiVo says there is “zero chance” of D24 attending UCSC or UCSB over McGill and Toronto, and the latter 2 are guaranteed admits - how does a parent know this decision tree? It now becomes pretty clear who in the family is making the college decisions.

Other obvious inconsistencies: Neither Tufts, nor Dartmouth, nor Wesleyan, make the “Top 100” rule for getting the national $40k annual scholarship NiVo has previously said is allegedly an objective. So why not take these schools off, as well as UCSC?

Wishing D24 all the best. Truly. But this thread seems to be about the parental quest, not the applicant’s.

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2360

Once again, a reminder that CC is supposed to a friendly and welcoming place.

This family is entitled to make their own decisions without the snark.

Users are welcome to stop reading this thread if they find it upsetting.

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2363

And since the original point of this thread is now moot, I’m closing.

The OP is welcome to message the moderators to reopen if they’d like to share a decision.

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