What’s the * and x and %
On the second list is % chance of admission? If so, why do you feel she has a 15% chance the the bottom group when acceptance rates are single digits?
“*” pre-read likely
“x” no feedback, likely drop
“%” chance of being recruited
15% is the probability of getting admitted by one of 5 reach schools
This would be my thinking as well. Certainly your kid’s classmate is an all around top student, but something like a top national science scholarship/science fair winner really sets them apart.
I knew someone similar that was a recruited multi-sport athlete, top academics, so a lot of good choices, and they were also a national science fair research project winner and admissions seemed to pick up on that more than the sports. Sports of course was the hook with the coaches for support but the grades and the national science fair carried as much with admissions.
I do think that the AO factors in athletes though there are thousands of very good single and multi-sport HS athletes.
How do you figure that? All schools have single digit acceptance rates, and probably sub 5% for internationals.
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Barnard/Carnegie Mellon 13-15%
Rest 5-10%
Total of 5 schools ~ 10-15%
This is not an exact science, and the guesstimate isn’t of much significance for this group of reach schools. You may guess 3-5%
Applying to several 5% admit schools still leaves you with a 5% chance of getting in. Each event is independent and the probability does not change.
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I used a mathematical model of probabilities…
That’s a pipe dream. Barnard has a single digit acceptance rate and CMU is around the 13% for domestic applicants. International acceptance rates almost anywhere will be lower than domestic rates, and at CMU you cannot be offset by beling fullpay since all internationals are full pay.
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you may use other sources, but in any case, that guesstimate number has little relevance
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I suppose it would depend on what one considers high level and what the AO would pick up on as high level vs varsity sport which can vary by sport, school and how much the student athlete excelled at that sport.
Most of the talk here seems to be around D3 sports, which I understand is certainly high level for some schools and sports. The responses pertain to the sports weight that the AO gives an applicant that does not get a recruiting offer, so I would still tend to agree with @BUMD’s comment.
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I don’t use third party sources for data and neither should you.
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I don’t think assigning probabilities this way is helpful or accurate as other posters have mentioned. The general acceptance rate of these schools is not reflective of the reality of admission for any one individual. Take Barnard- its overall acceptance rate for this year was 6.3% (this is from Barnard directly) but the acceptance rate for a unhooked applicant is going to be even lower. Same for any of the schools on your daughter’s list.
You had mentioned earlier that your daughter was definitely not interested in women’s colleges- is this still the case?
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If each event is independent, then applying to five schools each of which has a 5% probability of acceptance leaves the kid with a 22.6% probability of getting into at least one.
If each acceptance is completely correlated, then applying to five schools each of which has a 5% probability of acceptance leaves the kids with a 5% probability of getting into at least one.
I think we would all agree that acceptances are not completely independent or completely correlated (there is some difference in what each of those schools is looking for, there is some difference in how a particular essay or recommendation letter will resonate with one reader vs. another, and there is some randomness in the process.
So I think an estimate of 15% of getting into at least one is reasonable.
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I’d suggest coming back to the non recruiting list mid summer if it doesn’t look like athletic recruiting will yield coach support. That list could probably be improved
For example, with a limit of 10 it’d be helpful to decide in advance whether a small or large school is preferred; there’s no point wasting applications at Amherst and Swat that could be occupied by larger schools like Washington, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ivies if a large school is preferred. And depending on interest there might be great fits that the swim and THE lenses ignored-Rice, Northwestern, etc.
As far as the recruiting list, given that you’re now including additional schools like F&M and Grinnell I wonder if she’s contacted schools such as Whitman, Macalaster, Lewis & Clark, etc.? Maybe even Occidental in CA? If she’d prefer McGill then no worries, but if she prefers a small school and wants to be a bit more comprehensive with D3 US colleges she might consider reaching out. (I know zero about swim programs at those schools but they’re considered solid small colleges).
I understand what you’ve said about drawing a line but it could also be the case that you and your daughter just aren’t familiar with all of the dozens+ good small colleges in the US. There’s nothing magic about NESCAC schools although several of them are very good.
I don’t know how CMU would have ended up on either list given some of your prior comments about MIT and Caltech.
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Grinnel sounds like a great addition. Have you looked at Carleton or Bates for swimming as well?
I hope your daughter is recovering well from her injury. It is so frustrating for them. My daughter had a shoulder injury the end of her junior year which prevented her from getting better times in the spring, but it all worked out in the end.
Don’t get too discouraged with the process. For my daughter, there was a great increase in communication in the summer after her junior year with requests for prereads and invites to overnights with the team. Cost was an issue for us so we did not have her do ED anywhere. This did eliminate one NESCAC school for us, where she had full support if we did ED, but would have to take chances with RD (she was waitlisted). However was accepted to some of the all girl schools your daughter is not interested in, as well as some other NESCAC schools. She did have coaches that continued to give support right on through the RD process, and she will be attending a NESCAC school in the fall. Swimming is very important to my daughter, but she also knows that getting a good education is the most important part of college. It sounds like your daughter is the same way.
I feel that as the time gets a little closer, it will be clear which coaches are truly interested as they will keep in close touch with your daughter. Others will sort of fade away. And your daughter should continue to send the coaches messages when she has any new times to give them etc. I wish you all the best as you continue the process. It can feel a little overwhelming at times!
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@Momofswimmers indeed our daughters have a very similar profile and passion, though luckily D24 can apply full pay and ED if she is able to secure full coach support somewhere from her list. As you mentioned, we’re fully expecting many coaches to fade away on the next 6-8 weeks as others have before even a zoom call (it’s certainly the vibe @Washington St Louis and Carnegie Mellon). She’s working hard and hopes her may meets with generate the necessary PBs to enhance the ongoing coach conversations. She’s waiting for couple drops before adding Bates and/or Carleton, though one issue is the breath of the program in her intended major (environmental science), particularly compared to larger schools which have a stronger STEM component such as McGill. Thanks for your wishes and encouragement.
@JLDDCC D24 isn’t interested in attending women’s college, however Barnard stands out because it’s fully integrated with Columbia
@simon3 thanks for providing the more mathematical assessment of my guesstimate. Again it’s just a guesstimate with no particular final impact.
@politeperson indeed, if she’s recruited by several schools (a big if) or not recruited, we expect the choice of schools to naturally change with summer visits. Her swim list is reaching near capacity because she has added schools, feels comfortable handling a certain volume of conversations, is hopeful with the progress of certain discussions, and is busy with injury recovery and exams.
Those Barnard numbers are outdated. Barnard this year had the lowest acceptance rate in its history of 6.5%.
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What Tony Grace is saying is that high school varsity sports are not nearly the level of commitment needed for swim recruiting. High level swimmers are swimming year around for competitive clubs at the national level.
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@Lkunk498
Yes, I understood that, and understand that swimming is specialized. I have a lot of respect for the amount of time and the level of commitment that swimmers, and their parents, put in pretty much year round.
That said, I still stand by and agree with @BUMDs statement, particularly as the comparison was being made for what would stand out with admissions, such as a very high end academic achievement vs. a non supported recruited athlete.
Note: I was also noting that in some sports, top HS Varsity athletes are high level meaning top D1 recruits, All American’s etc.
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The OP is in a tough spot. Usually athletic recruiting is a path to get into a better school than one could get in without that hook. Currently his swim list does not include any schools that recognizes his daughter’s swimming as a hook and the OP is very slow to broaden his list to identify one (why wait to contact Bates?). The longer he waits the more finalized recruiting 2024 rosters become.
The non-swim list is incredibly ambitious. For anyone.
The idea that the non swim list has more rejective schools than the swim list seems counterintuitive.
College admissions in the US has gotten so crazy/competitive. The reason it is so much harder to be athletically recruited these days is that everyone realizes it is the last meritocracy left in the admissions game.
The OP is placing a lot of faith in the Canadian system.
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