For those following at home… it is not possible to follow at home! Too many inconsistencies in the narrative.
On a related note:
But a little while back there was talk of one coach in the following category that, if they didn’t make an explicit offer, was at least floating the idea of making an offer:
What happened with this? Was this the critical first offer? Did this “engage other coaches”?
Oh yeah, you are right. OP did say there was one school in that category, pushing OPs daughter to commit and when I asked about that comment, OP confirmed it. But now it seems there are no offers? This is the most confusing ever.
D24 is going through pre-read with that school. Seems the general advice is that it’s best to have all pre-reads completed and passed, by which time the coaches know they have full power to make instant decisions.
I don’t agree. Coaches know what grades and test scores work for highly academic recruits, especially in the case of someone like your D who has high grades and test scores. For these kids, the pre-read is administrative.
A coach may “hide” behind a pre-read when they aren’t certain about a potential recruit, but if they want a kid, they will say “the pre-read won’t be a problem”, or something similar. This has been our experience and those of others we know.
This was not our experience. In all cases, when my son was told he passed the preread, he was also given an offer in that same conversation. In one case, a NESCAC coach who hadn’t seen him play (2020 – covid) but gave him a preread on the strength of his video, used the preread as a way to delay. He kept saying (and by “kept saying”, I mean for a couple of weeks) that Admissions hadn’t gotten back to him yet. I am pretty sure the coach was hoping another recruit would accept an earlier offer, but he wanted to keep my son in his back pocket in case that other recruit said no. We never found out what the final outcome would be as my son accepted a different school’s offer.
@SportyPrep we certainly don’t think D24 will have problems with any of her pre-reads. The remaining coaches have been nice with her, including those who just switched jobs, but factually no one has yet confirmed their strong support or her ranking order on his/her list. Once pre-reads are passed, she believes she can clearly engage with coaches to ask them where she ranks on their list if they’re not volunteering to give her support.
But if coaches aren’t offering support, does it matter where she is on their list? Or, would she be asking if there would be a chance to walk on?
The list matters in couple ways :
to the extent that a coach is recruiting 8 swimmers and she’s ranked 9th, if any of the 1-8th decides to go elsewhere (which is statistically likely), she would then get the spot. Alternatively, if she’s recruited elsewhere but 9th at her preferred school, the coach then has to decide between the certainty of getting #9 committed vs waiting for commitments from #1-8 she possibly losing #9-10-11 etc in the process
if she’s ranked 12th, it’s likely dead
I doubt coaches will tell her exactly where she is on their list. First, the list isn’t static. Second the coach is going to want to keep all the potential recruits up in the air until s/he knows for sure they don’t need that particular kid.
I understand you don’t think D24 will have a problem with her pre-reads, and you are most probably right. My point is that the pre-read process will not delay a coach from making recruitment decisions for a highly academic kid. Please see the post by @cinnamon1212 . To simplify - the coaches you are in touch with are not saying “I am going to make an offer to D24 the second I hear back from admissions on the pre-read”, or in your words, “full power to make instant decisions”. You will likely feel love from the coach before pre-read comes back, or the coach will hold the pre-read outcome in their pocket until it is advantageous to engage with the recruit.
Don’t worry about the pre-read - you likely already have it in the bag. The issue is the level of coach support. Good luck in the process.
I think the terminology is quite different here. The one school that was said to be “pushing her to commit” and now is “going through pre-read” indicates that there is still a disconnect in the whole process. If you are being pushed to commit, believe me, you will know it. It may well come with a pretty-quick deadline for a decision.
we’ll see if she gets lucky or not, coaches will decide pass vs fail, and whether she wraps up applications in Aug/Sep vs March
It think the other thing to remember is how many recruits get coaches support. She may be 9th where someone is going to recruit 8, but I would be surprised if admissions gives the swim coach 8 “offers” to offer. Athletics would fill up an entire freshman class if you total up all the sports!
The coaches are relying on some of those spots to come without their support … essentially a preferred walk-on. That is how they fill their roster- there may be a number of kids in those positions that play musical chairs where they finally end up.
Good luck.
I think what confounds the most of us who follow this 1500+ post thread is the OPs inability to understand the coach support/preread dynamic.
Correlation is not causation.
While the kids who are recruited always have a positive preread, it almost always happens when the coach openly expresses interest first. Rarely if ever does the order switch where the positive preread causes the coach interest.
It is a lot like love, you know it when you feel it. If you are not sure, there is no love.
The OP needs to understand that the preread was invented for the outstanding athlete who may not be the best student to give him/her assurance that committing to the school (and taking him/her off the market) will not be in vain. The preread is not for the excellent student who likes the sport and hopes to backdoor admissions.
To experienced posters, the OP seems to be wasting valuable time hoping for luck to intervene. If varsity swimming is important, he and his daughter have a lot of work to do (it is July before senior year for gods sake). If varsity swimming is not important, it is probably time to start brushing up on French.
@superdomestique your assessment that a student who fails to get recruited necessarily ends up at their safety school is dubious and statistically wrong because only a minority sub 20% of college applicants end up at their safety school
… and no, D24 doesn’t need to brush up on her french
I don’t know where you get your statistics, but with your non-swim list being what it is (highly rejective), I don’t think you know what your are in for.
FWIW, I have been thru the process three times, 2 athletic recruits, and 1 not. The non-athletic admissions process was much, much harder.
Source for this assertion?
Can I just say that if my kid who is above average but not spectacular in terms of math ability and accomplishments applied to say: MIT, CIT, UC Berkley and Cal State Long Beach as a safety school, there would be a 100 percent chance they would land at their safety school. 
My point is, that the chances depend on the list and the number of reaches, matches and safeties for that particular student and their skill set/profile.
The disconnect is that a hooked athlete with coach support will get into a highly rejective school. Without that hook – coach support – their chances are like any other applicant. So the likelihood of admission goes from 100% to 5% (Stanford, Ivies etc) or 20%, or whatever the admit rate is.
That’s why – for those pursuing selective schools, as the OP is – the athletic list is usually more selective than the schools one would apply to unhooked. The confusion for some of us is that @NiVo has the lists reversed.
Agreed.
This is the conundrum with athletic recruitment. Swimming training and competition is time intensive. By definition, it will take away, at least somewhat, from EC commitments, leadership, and accomplishments.
I am not saying your D24 won’t have a fantastic, holistically-friendly application as an unhooked applicant. But we know in our kid’s case, the sport training reduced ECs and leadership, making applying to elite, non-recruitment schools far trickier. SATs and GPA will only get one so far at elite schools.
I say this just to politely suggest, as others have, to “possibly” consider some less prestigious schools in your swimming recruitment journey.