There are always a number of those with remarkable resumes and are shoo-ins at state flagships with full ride or close to it. When those very students also are good candidates for HPY but would have to pay full freight, it comes down to a question of whether $80k/year, $320k+ over 4 years is worth the investment or even affordable under advisement from financial planners.
But, maybe half that, or a full tuition scholarship/full ride to Duke, JHU, UCHicago, Vanderbilt, Rice, can be managed financially, and maybe those schools are a much better fit than the great state schools like UCLA,UCBerkeley, UVA, UMichigan, UT-Austin, UNC-CH, Georgia Tech for the student.
That’s what often get parents and students alike , miserably , ( Maybe happily?) contemplating, brooding, planning, plotting, obsessing even, on how to get those big fat awards when even admittance to those schools are so highly competitive.
My view on that, is to give it a whirl. But those lottery tickets. Its a luxury and a privilege to have a flagship state u as a safety, affordable and a sure thing. Even more of a great privilege to be ineligible for financial aid due to high income/assets. And to be or have a student in the running for these highly selective schools and awards Is a reward in itself, and a blessing besides that. These are issues that most of the world would love to have among their their biggest problems.
As to how to maximize those measly chances of getting one of those big awards, doubling or even quadrupling them still doesn’t give you more than a minuscule chance.