<p>Yes, I do find the numbers to be reassuring, and I think you should, too. (Sorry, I've been home the past couple days sick and I've been thinking about TASP a lot.) </p>
<p>Here's my logic:</p>
<p>Out of the 165, at least 5 people probably have other plans for the summer that were made after they submitted their application. For example, their parents scheduling a trip to Europe, or maybe an internship - something they see as better (although I'm not sure anything really COULD be better than TASP...)</p>
<p>Out of the 160 left, I'd say at least 30 are socially inept and/or will not be able to defend their essays due to having not written them independantly or lying in them. I don't mean this to be mean, and I don't mean this to be about any of you guys (obviously you're relatively articulate if you seek out like-minded individuals on the internet as a form of, well, support group). </p>
<p>Yes, these 20 wrote some great essays, but does that mean they are "people people"? No. Does it mean they wrote the essays all by themselves, without the help of encouraging english/history teachers or parents? No. Yes, they wrote down some great tomes of classic literature for their book list, but does that mean they actually read the books? No.</p>
<p>So, that brings it down to 80/130, which is about a 62% acceptance rate. That means you have to be more endearing and more quick-thinking than only 50 other people. That doesn't seem so bad to me.</p>
<p>Maybe my reasoning is wrong and all 165 of the candidates at this point are really hyper-articulate prodigies, but I doubt it. I've come up with this as a means of trying to calm myself down and assure myself I have a shot at this, because, like you guys I'm sure, I really really want it. I just feel that if I am rejected at this point it will be a direct judgement on my personality. </p>
<p>Like "otherwise, you're qualified; we just didn't like you in person."</p>
<p>=(</p>