The big picture....looking to where the jobs will be

College Majors Engineering Majors
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<p>For those of you embarking on a college experience, considering grad school, or are otherwise concerned about what you'll do after the schooling is over, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out some good projections on where the jobs will be.</p>

<p>This particular publication is an easy read & can quickly give one a sense of what fields are growing:
<a href="http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/winter/art02.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/winter/art02.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>As it relates to "engineering", here are some of my take-aways:
1. First, the bad news as it relates to engineering...p 15, while the % growth in the computer field is projected to be huge, the growth for "architecture & engineering" is projected to be only 12%, less than the average for all professional occupations of 13%. Still positive though, and larger than other occupations.
2. p. 22, Top 20 most new jobs w/ a bachelor's degree, computer engineers huge as before, but construction managers and civil engineers make the list.
3. p. 20, Top 20 most new jobs w/ a graduate degree, remove teachers, lawyers, clergy, and health care, and you are left with environmental scientists, which includes environmental engineers (as I am in that business, beware that this is a biased observation!)
4. p. 21, Top 20 most new jobs w/ a bach's or graduate degree plus experience....computer & IT managers make the list, as well as "engineering managers"....meaning you might want to consider augmenting your technical academics with some business courses, as there is plenty of opportunity in management.</p>

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<p>& BTW, my grey-haired observation is that its much more fun to be in an occupation that is growing than one that is static or shrinking. Your skills are valued, jobs abound, and there is a much greater career comfort factor. The trick is to find a field that will be bullish for the larger part of one's career.....this is a matter of some luck though, as projecting 30 years out is a crap shoot. But a projection of occupations like the one above is at least a good starting point.</p>

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<p>Exactly which crystal ball did the government look into to come up with this forecast? If you read the fine print, it will tell you basically to disregard any forward looking statements, since they're speculative and the government joes can't really tell the future!!</p>

<p>The only projections they have are charts....if a chart has gone up in the last 5 years, it will go up for the next 20 years also???? Come on, we all know that the chart can plunge like a dead bird .....it's our future at stake, not the idiots doing the forecasting.</p>

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<p>come on aehmo, take the post and link for its intent, as an intro to those who haven't thought much yet about such things. I'd say that the feds who are in charge of employment stats (I think you called them idiots...grow up) have a much better feel than you or me, or anyone else here on CC, for projecting occupational growth & decline. Over the years, I have never known these projections to be wrong enough be described as you mentioned: "plunge like a dead bird", do you know something about the BLS projections that I don't?....so if you have some real info that counters what's shown, please post it. I am truly all ears, but I'd prefer some positive comments. & yes, its your future (&my kids') at stake....that's exactly why I think everybody who hasn't formed an opinion (I'd guess you have) to read this type of thing. Its not gospel, but it is worth considering.</p>

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<p>Yeah I'm hoping all that growth in the medical industry turns for the good for Biomedical Engineers... :)</p>

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<p>"so if you have some real info that counters what's shown, please post it."</p>

<p>I'm can't counter them because I can't read the future...by the same token, they shouldn't be forecasting because they can't read the future either!! Have you ever based your stock buys on forwarding looking statments from prospectuses -- good, don't, cause nobody else does.</p>

<p>Just because the bls posts numbers doesn't mean they're valid numbers....they're based on graph trends and the basic assumption of other-things-begin-equal, which are as accurate as stock price patterns on indexes.</p>

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<p>
[quote]
are as accurate as stock price patterns on indexes.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Not quite. BLS isn't predicting, for example, that 'boeing will hire 6000 employes, lockheed 5000, ball will not hire" etc. They're forecasting an entire industry, and when variables are chosen conservatively, can lead to quite accurate results.</p>

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<p>now this is a more productive discussion. I agree that that there is always uncertainty with any predictions, but I contend that its better for a career-starter to understand various constituencies' opinions/views on such predictions rather than to go blind. I tend to agree with karthikkito that BLS type predictions are very different from Wall Street's ....they both are apparently using the same cya disclaimers, but this IMO is more due to our litigious society & the need to placate in-house counsel in minimizing the potential for future law suits. Much of the BLS methodology is based on demographic and population trends, which are fairly steady eddy relative to a potentially volatile inputs basing a company earnings prediction for any one company. I will look over the BLS website to see if I can discover more about their methodology, then report back.</p>

<p>One other point....if one doesn't base stock purchasing on forward looking statements, what does one base it on? Industry trends is one of many things to consider (i.e., get your money out of the buggy whip business sector), and its this type of industry-wide data that are used in part to base the BLS projections as I know it.</p>

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<p>i gotta say im surprised by the huge growth in the computing indeustry, i thought that outsourcing would really threaten the growth of this field. especailly jobs like network administrator etc. which are projected huge growth</p>

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<p>MR_JR....good question...I think some of the answer may lie in BLS's categorization; that is, the OP'd report is relative to the "services" sector, whereas, much of the IT/computer job outsourcing has come via the manufacturing sector. This paper, albeit a couple of years out of date, gives this subject (and outsourcing in general) a much more detailed examination:
<a href="http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/kirkegaard0204.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/kirkegaard0204.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>..of course, the paper does rely on BLS data...good read anyway to give one a sense of how these projections are modeled. Interesting to note that the share movement offshore of computer jobs is projected to decline (although its still a very big number) in the next ten years, presumably because the big push was with the post 9/11 manufacturing economic turmoil.....see table 5 of the paper. There are some bright spots mentioned for computer oriented jobs later in the paper, but its a complex picture.</p>

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<p>But what about bio-engineering? biomedical engineering is in relation to building medical devices, but what about genetic/bio engineering? Im surprised that this didnt make the list for fast growing occupations. Papa chicken, where would you think engineering in particular is headed int he future</p>

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<p>I think that no predictions about employment should be trusted if they try to predict 10 or more years in the future. The National Science Foundation predicted a severe shortage of science, math, and technology workers, SEVERAL times already, and all of those predictions were false. In fact there is an oversupply of technology workers right now.</p>

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<p>MR_JR—I haven’t seen much in the employment materials I’ve read that specifically pulls out bio-engineering from biomedical. Not sure why, other than the supposition that BLS hasn’t caught up to the more recent developments or that this is just too fine a distinction for them.</p>

<p>Here’s an excerpt on “engineering” from another BLS standard occupational handbook, covering 2004-2014:
<a href="http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos027.htm%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos027.htm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>I believe this is updated every year or 2. An interesting section is “Job Outlook”, which bucketizes growth prospects, as BLS sees them, for various types of engineers. Here’s how BLS explains the growth buckets:
If the statement reads:................Employment is projected to:
Grow much faster than average.....Increase 27 percent or more
Grow faster than average.............Increase 18 to 26 percent
Grow about as fast as average......Increase 9 to 17 percent
Grow more slowly than average.....Increase 0 to 8 percent
Decline......................................Decrease any amount</p>

<p>Here’s the various engineering groupings:</p>

<p>Grow much faster than average
Biomedical
Environmental</p>

<p>Grow faster than average
None in this category</p>

<p>Grow about as fast as average
Agricultural
Chemical
Civil
Computer hardware
Electrical
Electronics, except computer
Health & Safety, except mining safety
Industrial
Materials
Mechanical</p>

<p>Grow more slowly than average
Aerospace
Marine & Naval
Nuclear</p>

<p>Decline
Mining & Geological
Petroleum</p>

<p>BTW, this BLS link shows the entire report, of which the charts were OP’d:
<a href="http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm&lt;/a>
Gives some explanations of how they come up with their projections, although I haven’t read everything yet, so I don’t know how satisfying their explanations could be to the skeptics.</p>

<p>…..more in next post…..</p>

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<p>To answer your question on the engineering field in general, keep in mind that my vantage point is in one of the fastest growing fields, & I’m always looking for resumes & people, so I admittedly must have a jaded & bullish view. That being said, I tend to agree with BLS’ overall middle-of-the-road assessment that engineering will continue to grow at a pace that is roughly the same as overall employment & economic growth. There are some fast moving & newer areas, like bio, that will offset the declining areas. Much has been written about offshoring engineers jobs, but the types of work that I am involved with, civil/environmental/construction, have a big “local” component to them….perhaps some work could get done elsewhere in the world, but there must remain a local presence & someone who knows what’s going on at a particular project site. The most extreme of this example is construction engineering, not an official engineering discipline by BLS, but one which requires the most local presence of any that I am familiar with. As a newcomer to picking an engineering profession, one should ask themselves if globalization with help or hinder their “local demand”….if we start building nuclear power plants in response to some global energy crisis (evidently not in the BLS’ crystal ball), then The US will be building them, presumably to US standards, meaning US nuclear engineers. Near impossible thing for anyone to predict, but certainly worth considering.</p>

<p>I guess what it boils down to, as a test, is what I would advise my own kids if they wanted to get into engineering. Bottom line is that, under the current picture, I’d have them seriously consider the fast-growing fields, like bio & environmental, and balance those potentially more volatile prospects with the larger & more conventional fields of civil & mechanical for instance….the latter groups probably having less stellar growth potential overall as a group, but being larger & more robust, a high likelihood that plenty of opportunities would exist somewhere within the profession for some time to come. I would be skeptical of recommending any of the declining areas, UNLESS a passion or personal circumstance made that field particularly attractive, like going into Naval engineering to eventually take over granddad’s boat business.</p>

<p>One other reiteration…..I would also strongly recommend supplementing their engineering education with management course work……as I’ve observed, a career ceiling can exist for the best technical engineers if they are in a field that requires some type of team management or organization/business acumen.....& most do. This isn’t so obvious in the first part of one’s career, but I can’t think of many engineering jobs where the engineer wasn’t eventually more valuable if they could play a management role in addition to their technical role.</p>

<p>Finally, Nubtakular, I agree that 10 year projections are a stretch, but, again, I’d rather be informed by these less-than-perfect projections than not when making life decisions. I would recommend to all to dig into the BLS occupational handbook, its linked references, and the methodologies described in the links above to make your own mind up, before disregarding this type of info. I was looking around for some archived BLS projections to see how right or wrong they’ve turned out to be, but haven’t found any yet.</p>

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<p>See "Economic and Employment Projections" on this page: <a href="http://www.bls.gov/schedule/archives/all_nr.htm#ECOPRO%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.bls.gov/schedule/archives/all_nr.htm#ECOPRO&lt;/a>
The government predicted that there would be 20.9 million workers in the Professional Specialties in 1992. In 2005 this figure was actually 28.5 million.
See this is a bad prediction, not even close.</p>

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<p>
[quote]
The National Science Foundation predicted a severe shortage of science, math, and technology workers, SEVERAL times already, and all of those predictions were false. In fact there is an oversupply of technology workers right now.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>I would actually say that there is simply an oversupply of college graduates in general, relative to people with trade skills. It seems sad to say, but a person with a college degree often times does not make that much more than, say, a carpenter or a plumber or an auto repairman and sometimes makes less.</p>

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<p>Noob-- good find. Lots of good data in those archives, and , yes, BLS has been "off" in their predictions of total labor force numbers, like overpredicting the number of manufacturing jobs & underpredicting service jobs. In the former, appears they predicted a decline in manufacturing, but to a lesser than degree than actual. </p>

<p>I still contend, however, that its the trends that are the important aspect of the predictions for the folks on this board. They seem to have most of these identified OK, its then a matter of degree. Like any model, the number predictions will always be wrong, but are they close enough to help one understand the nuances of various occupational trends? I'd say yes when considering the broad trends. And just because it appears there will be a growth in one particular occupation, doesn't necessarily mean the opportunities will abound at the individual level.....supply & demand will tend to equalize these trends by producing more graduates in a growing field, as occurred in environmental engineering occupations in the mid 90's. Just as the "system" responded to a greater demand for env eng's (more universities started cranking out more env engineers), a recession hit the industry & severely curtailed entry-level hiring, forcing some env eng's to leave the profession...the result now is that env eng's with 5 to 10 years experience are in very short supply. BTW, this has also resulted in wonderful career opportunities for those that stuck it out. I'd suspect some similar volatility could happen to any quickly changing profession, like bioengineering, but the tried&trued disciplines, like mechanical & civil, can generally ride out such perturbations.</p>

<p>So, in conclusion, I'd still recommend that my kids read & try to understand these types of BLS projections & models when the time comes, realizing this type of thing is imperfect & represents just one input to their decisions. But they (the projections) still can provide some perspective to educational or career choices.</p>

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<p>the thing with engineering is that u can never go wrong with this.Not many people do engineering,and less 10%of all the degrees offered r the engineering type.The big jobs as per now r the hydrogen fuel research,nanotechnology but also there r opportunities in other areas</p>