One area that has not had much discussion is at what step in the pipeline the decline is occurring. Comparing surveys of 2015 HS college bound seniors who had decided on a prospective major to 2019 bachelor’s degree recipients suggests the students the portion of students pursuing humanities generally increases during college. One outlier is visual/performance arts, which has a large decrease in interest during college and generally shows different patterns than other humanities fields.
Intended Major of 2015 HS Seniors → 2019 (pre-COVID) Bachelor’s Degree Recipients
- English: 1.3% → 1.9%
- History: 1.0% → 1.1%
- Liberal Arts : 0.8% → 2.1%
- Foreign Language: 0.6% → 0.8%
- Philosophy: 0.2% → 0.6%
- Area Studies: 0.1% → 0.4%
- Total of Above: 4.0% → 6.9%
- Visual/Performance Arts: 7.5% → 4.5%
A similar effect occurs at highly selective colleges. For example, looking at Harvard’s student surveys in the years above.
- 2015 Harvard Freshman Survey – 12% Humanities School
- 2019 Harvard Senior Survey – 16% Humanities School
Parts of this increased humanities interest during college may be lack of exposure to majors like liberal arts, philosophy, or area studies during HS; which all more than doubled % between HS and college. Part of it may be due to a portion of students struggling in more calculation-intensive majors switching to humanities. In any case, it appears that few HS students intend to major in non visual/performance art humanities.
Looking back further gives some clues about when this decline in HS interest occurred. I’ll focus on just English major for simplicity. It looks like the decline in HS students intending to major in English began between 2007 and 2009 and has gradually continued since then.
2001 – 1.3% English (HS)
2003 – 1.5% English (HS)
2005 – 1.8% English (HS)
2007 – 1.8% English (HS)
2009 – 1.6% English (HS)
2011 – 1.5% English (HS)
2013 – 1.4% English (HS)
2015 – 1.3% English (HS)
One contributing factor may be the recession following the 2007-08 financial crisis. The decline in English major interest began at just as the recession became severe. Unemployment peaked at more than 10% during this recession and remained elevated for many years. When jobs are perceived to be scarce students may favor fields with perceived more reliable employment.
The recession and lack of employment opportunities also contributed to things like Obama’s 2009 Education to Innovate program, with stated goals “to increase STEM literacy, enhance teaching quality, and expand educational and career opportunities for America’s youth.” The program included over $1 billon funding for STEM education. During this period I expect students had increasing pressure from both teachers, parents, friends, and the general community to favor STEM fields over fields like English.
While the recession eventually ended, the increased community pressure to favor fields like STEM over English did not end. If anything it’s become stronger over time. Recent events may or may not change this trend. With the numerous news stories about tech lay offs and most recently SVB failing, students may not perceive tech to be as financially secure a field as in previous years.