<p>College admissions decisions will be gravely affected, in my opinion. Stay tuned.</p>
<p>Correct unfortunately.</p>
<p>...I hope my choices don't make extremely drastic cuts...</p>
<p>I have a 10th grader and am preparing to compare the stats for matriculating students before and after this year. I expect that they will be the same at the ivies and the most competitive LACs, but, lower at the next tier and below.</p>
<p>^^me too and hope you're right!!</p>
<p>As unemployment ranks swell, families will be forced to make very difficult decisions, which will likely affect a lot of decisions on where kids go to school....if they can still afford to go. </p>
<p>On the bright side, despite all the doom and gloom coming from the mouths of investment mavens, talking heads on television and economists.....the facts are that some very similar language was heard as recently as the 1990-92 recession (its remarkable how similar it is actually) and most recessions average about 18 months and we are perhaps into month 12 on this one, so perhaps we see some sunshine by the 4th Qtr of 2009. That is a best guestimate at most. Some prognosticators are predicting a much more severe recession than previous ones we have had in our lifetimes (I have lived through 3 severe recessions) because of the meltdown on wallstreet due to the derivatives blowing up and an untold number of toxic assets on the books of banks. </p>
<p>So I dont really know. But I am predicting we have not seen the bottom just yet. </p>
<p>Could I be wrong? Absolutely. But I wouldnt take that bet.</p>
<p>On the other hand, when the economy tanks, the unemployed may go back to school....</p>
<p>I'm curious how people expect admissions decisions to be affected. I infer that the suggestion is that more schools will be looking at the financial resources of their applicants, and granting admission accordingly. In other words, fewer "need blind" decisions.</p>
<p>For my part, as the parent of a high school junior, I am less focused on admission statistics than on acceptance statistics. My son will be choosing where to go to school just about one year from now. As of now we will encourage him to apply irrespective of financial considerations. But unless the economy is very clearly coming out of recession (and the markets have somewhat recovered) at the time he chooses, we may have no rational choice but to send him to our state school.</p>
<p>MilwDad, I think the picture you paint is one a lot of families will face this year and next. While the words might sound similar to past recessions, this one is very different. It's a deep, deep, global recession and things will not be rosy in 6 months.</p>
<p>I really wonder how this shakes out. Where are the need blind schools, already making cut backs due to endowment losses, going to find the money for the increased need in aid?</p>
<p>How many schools will cease to be need blind?</p>
<p>What happens to the second and tier privates whose value proposition suddenly looks very different?</p>
<p>How will the state colleges accommodate increased demand?</p>
<p>I know that there already is a large upturn at The University of Michigan for students who went to OOS private schools wanting to transfer back home. I have to think that this is going to really hurt many private colleges and universities.</p>
<p>Be happy you live in Wisconsin MilwDAD. At least you have a great state flagship university.</p>
<p>"What happens to the second and tier privates whose value proposition suddenly looks very different?"</p>
<p>That's an excellent question, and a troubling one. Many Private Universities and LACs ranked in, say, the second fifty have been attractive to a lot of students because they cost perhaps 75% of what the top tier privates cost. Now the focus will be on the fact that they cost 50-75% more than what good publics cost. The elite private schools have such a surfeit of demand that they will probably weather enrollment issues quite well, but a deep and long recession could prove challenging for that next tier. </p>
<p>And as you suggest, the state schools will be subject to their own pressures. It may actually raise the "quality demographic" (statistically speaking) of students attending the public flagships, but it may do so at a time when those schools are facing reduced appropriations, too. And of course the ripple effect of admissions pressure on the flagships will be felt all the way "downward" from flagships to smaller state universities to the state college systems.</p>
<p>I think all of us with kids close to college age (except those with very deep pockets and very smart kids) are going to have an awful lot of thinking to do about where our children should matriculate these next few years.</p>
<p>There are positives for those who can afford the privates. I'm thinking LACs ranked below 20 will be easier to get into this year. I also think there will be many taken from waiting lists this year as many private colleges see lower yields.</p>
<p>State schools will probably see a boost in stats with many not getting into the better schools who would have gotten in last year. I also wonder if they'll accept fewer expecting higher yields.</p>
<p>southernbbq wrote: the facts are that some very similar language was heard as recently as the 1990-92 recession (its remarkable how similar it is actually) "</p>
<p>I don't recall that at all. The present situation is much, much more severe than 1990 - 1992. We sold a home in early 1992 and only lost 10% on that home vs. our purchase price in 1989. No comparison at all. Globallly recognized banks did not fold in 1990-1992. The #1 or #2 (depending on how one counts) auto maker in the world was not on the edge of bankruptcy in 1990-1992. Consumer sentiment was not at all time lows then. Retirement accounts had not lost 40% of their value then.</p>
<p>The closest comparison would be to 1930.</p>
<p>Dunnin: I didnt say the circumstances or causes of today's recession is the same. Dont put words in my mouth, please. I said some people were stating very similar things in 1990, such as, "this is the worst recession since the Great Depression." Most recessions last 18 months or so. </p>
<p>I am not an economist, but well connected to wallstreet traders. Nobody knows for sure how this pans out because of the derivatives and toxic assets, as I also pointed out above. This recession was started in the Real Estate Market and the Real Estate bubble was most severe in California, where irresponsible lenders, irresponsible borrowers and a totally irrational exhuberance in real estate values fueled by house flippers took hold. Some of the most egregious offenders in the mortgage origination business were in California: Golden West, WAMU and Countrywide. IndyBank was also very busy in California.</p>
<p>So yes, in California it is much worse this time around.</p>
<p>This time its also a global financial meltdown because of the sale of derivatives as AAA debt when they were all subprime mortgages and other junk status loans. I could write a PhD thesis on the "social and political policies" that started this, but the point here is not a political one. The point is purely economic and how that impacts student/family decisions on where to attend college, if at all.</p>
<p>I wish someone had the answers on how long we are going to be in this mess or where the bottom is. But we dont have those answers. We can only hope and pray policy makers do the right thing and we find a way through this horrific mess. In the meantime, I just caution people to be responsible.</p>
<br>
<blockquote> <blockquote> <p>The economy is going to get markedly worse between now and May 1.<<<</p> </blockquote> </blockquote>
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<p>No $hit, Sherlock</p>
<p>Yes, understand. Maybe it was the particular set of words, or my interpretation, but I don't see much similarity between 1990-1992 and the present, nor do I see people referring to those two periods in anything like similar terms.</p>
<p>I tried researching what happened to colleges during the Great Depression. I couldn't find a lot of info, but what I did find, seemed to indicate that there was a two year gap between the stock market crash and a large drop in enrollment.</p>
<p>I have a link for you if you want. The main point is that people then were saying EXACTLY the same thing, "this is the worst recession since the Great Depression." And they were predicting going into Depression then as well. Of course the circumstances and causes of THIS recession are different. That one was a cyclical recession from business cycles if you will. This one is the culmination of excessive bubbles in the dot.com markets, 9-11, Katrina and the real estate bubble fueled by unregulated hedgefunds, outrageous underwriting practices by unregulated mortgage originators and foolish political policies aimed at social re-engineering in the 90's. Several administrations are to blame for actions and inactions alike. Its not a political comment, just fact.</p>
<p>The 500 TRILLION in worthless global derivatives are very disturbing and unwinding them is what has the global capital markets imploding. Where this all ends up is anyone's guess. </p>
<p>I found it particularly gauling that BofA, which took 45 BILLION from TARP to rescue itself after their unwise purchase of Countrywide Mortgages and Merrill Lynch, went down to Tampa and threw a 10 million dollar Superbowl party with TARP funds. They all belong in jail if you ask me. Starting with Ken Lewis their CEO.</p>
<p>I digress.</p>
<p>That's the state of our country now. Capitalism when we're making profits, socialism when we're losing money. If any company takes TARP funding, they better not be giving any bonuses to their top employees. Of course, that wasn't stated in the handout.</p>