<p>I think this whole thread is unbelievably silly. The fact is, there has never been a particularly strong correlation between the strength or growth rate of a state’s economy and the quality of its flagship public university. This is just wishful thinking on the part of that devout Michigan-hater, hawkette. </p>
<p>Tell me, when New York’s economy was riding on top of the world, did it have the strongest state universities? No. True, California had its economic moment in the sun and former governor Pat Brown decided to spend like a drunken sailor to build, as he put it, “the best university in the world,” and it worked for a while. Later governors have been more parsimonious and California’s economy has gone wobbly many times since the 1960s, but UC Berkeley remains the nation’s premier public university despite those economic and fiscal ups and down. In contrast, Michigan’s economy has been deeply troubled since at least the early 1970s and in some ways all the way back to the late 1950s, yet it has maintained in the University of Michigan one of the nation’s top public universities despite chronic state fiscal problems that have weaned the University off all but a tiny trickle of state aid—and in the process, made the state’s budget situation all but irrelevant to the University’s fiscal strength and condition, as the school now depends on a diverse and surprisingly durable independent revenue base. </p>
<p>In the 1980s and 90s we saw a tremendous shift of population and economic growth to the so-called “sunbelt.” Did that produce top-notch public universities in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina? Well, the University of Texas arguably got a little better, though mostly off oil revenues, not state aid. The University of Florida got a little better, as did the University of Georgia, but neither was propelled into the very top ranks of public institutions; and public higher education continued to lag in most of the other Sunbelt states, with their skinflint anti-tax fiscal priorities never providing enough money to build truly great public universities in short order as Pat Brown did in California.</p>
<p>Well, ok, maybe it’s not about growth rates. Maybe it’s the size of the state’s economy that matters, on the theory that a bigger economy can siphon off more resources to support the flagship state U. Let’s see, the top states by GDP are, in order, California, New York, Texas, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Georgia, and North Carolina. Of these, only California and North Carolina have top-ranked public universities. True, Michigan is #11 and Virginia #12, so there may be something here; but the fact that so many economic heavy-hitter states don’t have premier public universities ought to tell us that we shouldn’t rely on a crude economic determinism. clearly, Michigan, Virginia, and North Carolina all “punch above their weight”; either that, or the states with bigger economies are just laggards. Or both. either way, the strength of a public university can’t be completely explained by the size of the state’s economy. </p>
<p>Well then, what about a correlation with per capita income? Surely the richer states can afford better public universities, so that as North Carolina becomes richer, its public universities will soar? Sorry, the facts just don’t back that hypothesis. The states with the highest per capita income are, in order, Connecticut, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, New York, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, California, and Illinois. (Hmmm . . . no sunbelt states, except California; how odd that the high tax-and-spend states are also the richest). Of these, only California can boast a top-5 public university (arguably two), though UIUC is also excellent. True, Virginia’s 11th, but Michigan is all the way down there at 25th (about where it’s alwasy been) and North Carolina is even further down at 38th. So there just doesn’t seem to be much correlation, does there?</p>
<p>The truth is, a lot goes into building and maintaining a great university, public or private, and most of it has little or nothing to do with the size or growth rate of the state’s economy. For publics, state aid matters, especially when it’s just getting started. There’s no question the University of California’s rapid rise was propelled in no small measure by Pat Brown’s generous (some would say reckless) spending. Will that happen in North Carolina? Well, they seem to be fiscally much more conservative than that. But over time, state aid comes to represent a much smaller percentage of a great university’s budget. Endowment matters a lot more. Research capacity, and success in competition for both federal and private research grants is a huge element. Prudent management of and investment in the university’s resources— financial, physical, and human—is crucial. It becomes a self-sustaining enterprise that runs on its own momentum and greatness. A great university can flater—but it doesn’t happen nearly as often nor as easily as hawkette would have you believe (and if it did, the University of Michigan would have ceased to be a great university in the 1970s, when the state’s economy went into steep decline).</p>
<p>I wish the University of North Carolina well. It is already a great university—though with a smaller endowment, smaller research capacity, not quite as strong a faculty, and not quite as strong a reputation as those ahead of it in line, it’s got a lot to overcome to move ahead of its rivals. I wouldn’t bet the house on it, and I certainly wouldn’t expect it to happen in the next five years, nor probably the next ten. Beyond that, it’s anybody’s guess.</p>