UCB- agree, no matter how you calculate, there is a logical fallacy at its core.
The year before one of my kids was a senior, someone from the HS was admitted to Princeton but rejected from Brandeis. That fueled an entire “college admissions is so random” trope for about three years, with this kid getting quoted that “you’ll never know if you don’t try” to explain all sorts of crazy application lists.
When logical minds tried to explain how yield protection worked, the kids brains just shut down. (I knew this kid-if he hadn’t ended up at Princeton, he’d have gone to one of the other mega selective schools he was admitted to. And Brandeis Adcom’s are smart enough to look at his application, see that he never visited or attended a regional event, and realize they were his safety school…)
He DID get into Tufts, which just goes to show that although Tufts syndrome may be apocryphal, Brandeis syndrome is not (substitute your own favorite college here!)