<p>the OP’s general point is correct…as long as her stats dont change, her chances will go up if she applies to more schools</p>
<p>i reckon if she applies to 200 reaches, im pretty sure she’ll get into at least one…</p>
<p>Admittedly, I know someone who applied to about 20 schoools: he had a slew of reaches and matches to apply to, and got into most of the matches, but only a couple of reaches. However, he was the kind of person who devoted everything he had into what he did, and started on the essays early in the summer prior to senior year. I know he spent about as much time on each individual application as I did, and he gave himself every advantage possible. And really, he just wanted to have a lot of schools to choose from come April.</p>
<p>to the OP.</p>
<p>The posts correcting the probability assumptions are correct … however your Dad’s basic premise is true … IF (that is a big if) you are viable candidate for highly selectice schools than applying to more helps your odds of getting into at least one (and of having choices among those top schools).</p>
<p>A lot of schools / counselors recommend strategies like 2 reaches / 2 matches / 2 safties … which is probaby fine for 90% of the HS students out there. However if a student is shooting for schools with very low odds of entry (highly selective school, full-ride merit scholarships at top schools, audition based performance arts, etc) then the 2/2/2 strategy makes it pretty likely the student ends up at a match. </p>
<p>I look at this way …</p>
<ul>
<li>If an applicant is god then they can get away with fewer schools</li>
<li>If an applicant is not up to snuff or has red flags than applying to the reach schools is a waste of money</li>
<li>However is a student is a solid applicant for these schools than increasing the number of shots is a good strategy … as long as they can do a good job on each incremental application. </li>
</ul>
<p>As a parent I’m looking at about $200,000 to send one of my kids to school … for one, who really wanted to be at a school filled with intellectual peers (and not be one of the smartest kids), then spending an extra few hundred on applications is somewhat nosie compared to the overall cost of her college experience.</p>
<p>Personally for students who want to push … something like a 8/3/1 strategy makes a heck of more sense to me than a 2/2/2 strategy … of course YMMV.</p>
<p>(PS - having said that I’d want the 8 reaches to make sence and be consistent with each other … some kids on CC applying to 12 reaches pick schools ranked #1-#12 in USNews and that makes no sence to me at all)</p>
<p>OP, what are the college counselors at your school recommending? They should have insight into what colleges accept students from your school with your statistics.</p>
<p>basicaly I’m going like this:
I live in ny
3.85gpa
32act
list of reaches I’m apping to:
dartmouth, georgetown, duke, nyu, jhu, brown, columbia, cornell, uva, unc, umich, uberkley, ED to UPENN, BC, vanderbilt, emory, rice. </p>
<p>Basically its going like this, if I get into 1 of these colleges I’ll be extatic. I mean UVA is my ultimate dream schools but I would be happy going to any of these schools. I could care less about weather, feel of school. When you get out of college business don’t care if you “HAD A GOOD TIME AT COLLEGE” they care how you did in college and on the GMAT. I could care less about having a good time at college, for me its all about the name.</p>
<p>10 reaches, 5 matches, 2 safeties…sounds like a good plan. You should apply to more reaches than matches and safeties.</p>
<p>"I could care less about having a good time at college, for me its all about the name. "</p>
<p>…</p>
<p>@SlitheyTove, yes that info is on naviance. what i found is that for my high reaches (such as stanford) pretty much everyone with my grades and scores got rejected…while for my lower reaches (such as emory) some people with my grades and scores DID get admitted.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>I second the … to this</p>
<p>massgirl, I go to Clemson. Let me know if you have any questions!</p>
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</p>
<p>That’s my $0.02.</p>
<p>^But I don’t see the benefit in limiting yourself to 6 schools if you have the time and money to apply to more. My parents want me to apply to 17 schools and to put an immense amount of time and energy into each application.</p>
<p>As everyone has pointed out… you logic is severely flawed.</p>
<p>Anyway… I used to have a couple reaches on my list but I’m not even sure I want to even go to them anymore. Johns Hopkins is in probably my least favorite city in the country/world… I’ve stamped out going to a “Brand Name” school just for its name. (obviously these schools have benefits but none of the “top” schools I have visited clicked)</p>
<p>Applying to 8 reaches is the reason why admissions rates are falling so sharply (the number of HS students graduating as not changed significantly especially when compared to 20% increases in applications), so doing that only hurts you (and everyone else). I’m applying to six schools, and I’m probably going to get in all 6. I have one “reach” that is more of a high-match, but that is as far as it goes. No disappointment for me, and thus less stress.</p>
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<p>Statistically true only to the extent that you have 0% chance of admission to schools you don’t apply to. It comes down to how much of a reach the OP is for the individual schools; if she is in the bottom 1% for GPA/SATs at each of her 200, then the chances are that she’ll be rejected from all of them. At the risk of confusing the language, admissions decisions are independent of each other - i.e., A rejection from Harvard does not increase or decrease your probabilities at Princeton etc.</p>
<p>To the OP, assuming that your academic profile is statistically competitive with your reach schools and you don’t care about the costs of applying (in time and money) or the overall costs of attendance, then it comes down to how many applications you can do an exceptional job on. Figure out that number and go from there.</p>
<p>^Agree with vinceh’s last paragraph.</p>
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</p>
<p>Your odds are going to be better if you apply to fewer schools and put an immense amount of time and energy into each of those applications. Your time and energy aren’t infinite. Pick the reaches that you’re really interested in, and the reaches that Naviance shows are possibilities. Throw out the rest.</p>
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<p>Her dad’s logic is wrong but so is your logic/math. </p>
<p>Assuming that the $1 million and the $100 million lottery have the SAME odds of a winning ticket (and ignoring Lottery organizer’s take for matters of simplicity):</p>
<p>A 100 million dollar lottery always has a better chance at a “big jackpot” than a 1 million dollar lottery. Even if there were three winning tickets, they are dividing 33.3 million per ticket versus 1 million per ticket. Even if there were 50 winning tickets (has that ever happened?) it still would have a better payout. A $100 million lottery didn’t start out as a 100 million dollar lottery. It has accumulated because of no winners (or conversely a ton of losers). You can’t beat that for a “big jackpot.” </p>
<p>A better analogy for the O.P. would be ‘if you don’t play, you can’t win.’ So, yes, if you don’t apply to a reach school, you have no chance of getting in … so applying does improve those odds. The math/probability issue becomes that many people think that buying two lottery tickets (compared to one) nearly doubles their chance of winning when in fact it improves someone chances by such a small percentage it’s not worth considering. So, for applying to colleges that are outrageous reaches - applying to more than one isn’t improving your odds significantly.</p>
<p>My daughter applied to:</p>
<p>1 safety - accepted
1 match - accepted
2 low reaches - one accept, one waitlist
6 high reaches - accepted at one; deferred and then rejected at one</p>
<p>It was a lot of work, but within reason. Admissions at top tier schools really does seem arbitrary and you feel like you won the lottery if you get in!</p>
<p>BTW, we visited all but three of the schools she applied to. I think it’s important to apply to places you have visited or at least researched extensively. It really isn’t all about the name!</p>
<p>OT detour:</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>I can’t find the study with the math which was the source for my logic/math, but Wikipedia’s list of notable large jackpots lists only 1-3 winners, which surprises me and awards debate points to ctyankee. Then again, I don’t play the lottery–as a friend said, “buying lottery tickets is a poor tax, and I’m not poor.” 
Nothing on the largest number of winning tickets for a major lottery.</p>
<p>End of off-topic digression. :)</p>
<p>@daughtershelper, that’s exactly why i want to apply to 8 reaches as well 
that’s great that your daughter got into 2!</p>
<p>the point is, if you have safety schools that you are confident you can get into, and you have money, feel free to apply as many schools as you want to!</p>
<p>Just be sure that the safety schools are schools you want to go to in case your reaches don’t work out.</p>