<p>The following are some exerpts from an article in the October 1st American Lawyer magazine. The article describes how the slowdown in private equity and structured finance will affect lawyers. My prediction would be that there will be some unhappy lawyers in these areas who worked some crazy hours during the first half of the year, but who won't receive a bonus at firms that tie bonuses to billable hour targets. </p>
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Brother, Can You Spare a Tranche?
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When three private equity groups arranged to buy HD Supply, Inc., early this past summer, the deal looked like simply another in a long chain of blockbusters. Then subprime loan defaults shot up, banks tightened their lending policies, and the credit markets ran dry. With the real estate market already in a tumble, the long-term prospects of HD Supply, a division of The Home Depot, Inc., that caters to building contractors, were uncertain. The deal, like dozens of others signed before the credit market shut down, was stuck in limbo. For lawyers at Debevoise & Plimpton who represented the consortium of buyers, the work they would have done after the close-and time they would have billed-was suddenly in doubt.
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Even scarier for Debevoise, and for all firms with big private equity practices, was the fact that no new deals were popping up to take the place of those that were stuck. Those fears are shared by lawyers who work on mortgage-backed securities, a market that has completely shut down.
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The fears are well justified for both groups, and for any lawyer whose business is linked to the availability of easy credit.
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On the private equity side, dealmaking volume for the first half of 2007 was twice what it had been over the same period the year before. Then August came, and the markets took a long vacation. Announced private equity deals for the month totaled just $5 billion, down from $45 billion the year before.
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Of the two practice areas, the structured finance lawyers are in a tougher spot. "These [practices] are incredibly profitable for law firms because they only require one or two partners on top, and a dozen or more attorneys underneath just churning these things out," says a partner at another Am Law 100 firm who does securitizations.
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But when the pipe is empty, these practices suffer for the same reason that they are profitable: It takes lots of bodies to roll these offerings out the door, and that leaves lots of lawyers with potentially little to do in a drought.
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. . . some people are in for a tough year. According to an internal memo obtained by the blog Above the Law, Kilpatrick Stockton announced raises for all associates-all, that is, except those who work in capital markets.
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If structured finance and private equity lawyers are struggling to meet their billable hours targets, though, litigators might be giving up their weekends for the next few months. The Securities and Exchange Commission has launched at least a dozen investigations around the subprime crisis, and filed suit against one fund manager, Sentinel Management Group Inc., which is accused of lying to its clients about its investments. Investors have filed lawsuits against the companies that have collapsed in the wake of the subprime crisis, including the Bear Stearns hedge funds and mortgage lenders.
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During the slowdown, deal lawyers have been reduced to economic forecasting and speculation. For example, King & Spalding private equity partner Raymond Baltz, Jr., says that for activity to pick up again, everyone involved must adjust their expectations. Private equity investors have to lower their target rates of return, sellers have to accept lower prices, and banks can't limit their lending too much.
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