The Number of Ph.D.s on Public Aid Triples in U.S.

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<p>I’ve already discussed state university taxpayer funding for the research of economists, many of whom ironically then tout the benefits of unfettered free markets and the inefficiencies of taxpayer subsidies. </p>

<p>But we can take it one step further. Most of the national statistical data that serves as the evidentiary raw material with which to publish econometric journal papers and calibrate macroeconomic models is funded by the taxpayers. The Economics and Statistics Administration (ESA), National Technical Information Service (NTIS), and the Bureau of the Census are all taxpayer funded institutions. Indeed, most of the empirical and modeling research that invokes the more politically conservative, free-market-oriented notions such as rational expectations and RBC itself utilizes data provided by one of the government statistical bodies. Practically all empirical economists, including those at private universities and think tanks, utilize this data to advance their theories. If the government did not pay to collect and publish this data, then pray tell, who would? Would there really be some private organization that would spring forth that would provide the information necessary to accurately calculate even such basic economic measurements as GDP, let alone the various multipliers, elasticities, and structural parameters necessary to build macro models? Color me skeptical.</p>

<p>On the other hand, I suppose you could argue that data and empirical evidence simply don’t matter when it comes to economic research. But then I would ask how exactly do you know that any of the economic concepts you like to cite are actually empirically valid?</p>

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<p>I suspect it’s more than the number of tenure-track English professorship job openings every year, and perhaps even part-time adjunct English lecturerships as well. Do you disagree?</p>

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<p>Um, it’s not the Times thinking so, but rather an employee at Google - specifically Marissa Mayer - saying so. Her specific quote is: "“We are going through a period of unbelievable growth and will be hiring about 6,000 people this year - and probably 4,000-5,000 from the humanities or liberal arts.” Now, granted, probably only a small minority of that 4000-5000 will hold PhD’s. But I doubt that the number would be zero.</p>

<p>Now you might argue that Mayer is simply lying. But why would she? Exactly what would she gain from that?</p>

<p>pessimism leads to failure ;)</p>

<p>deleted post…</p>

<p>The job pool is shrinking. Globalization and digitalization have made the middle class evaporate, as the so called “information age” produces billionaires with nonsense like facebook and amazon.com. We are paying a heavy price for all of this and the world is following our lead. China is at last producing consumers, but they buy products made in China, not the USA, including cars.</p>

<p>It doesnt take a PhD to do the logical conclusion to this path. Sure, I use technology like anyone else. Because I have to in order to survive. But jobs are going away. Law firms and accounting firms are seeing it. Where will anyone work…including MBA’s? The pollyanna eternal optimists have their heads in the clouds. </p>

<p>Yes, I know its “progress” and “change” and “the force of economic will”, but its still a very bleak picture if you ask me. We can’t all own subway shops or work in call centers.</p>

<p>This time its structural, not cyclical. Its why the housing market doesnt recover. People are dumping houses and renting, or moving down the ladder. </p>

<p>A society is known not just by how much money a very few people earn, but by the arts, research scientists and yes…Phd’s in history and religious studies. The true fiber of a society…its heart.</p>

<p>Be warned.</p>

<p>The recession pushed people unable to find employment back to school, in hopes that another cert or degree would land them a job. Of course the number of unemployed with post-grad diplomas jumped. The actual meaning of unemployed people with post-grad degrees is muddled by diploma inflation.</p>

<p>There are still huge differences between PhD, Msc or “masters” degrees. Mixing the three up to make a headline is garbage statistics. There are about 10 fold more people with post grad degrees of some kind, than there are PhDs. If the actual fraction unemployed is divided by 20 million, then all I can say is I’m surprised it is not much higher.</p>

<p>Quote:
The number of people with Ph.D.s who received some kind of public assistance more than tripled to 33,655 in 2010 from 9,776 in 2007,</p>

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<p>These numbers are utterly negligible. I’m not surprised they’re using the “tripling” language, rather than the actual increase, since 20 thousand people is absolutely nothing.</p>

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<p>I know! The use of the word “tripled” is misleading. The fact that the base number was small, multiplication is easily had.</p>

<p>Ph.D. in Film Studies. In the state of Florida.</p>

<p>I would strongly urge anyone who is considering a PhD in humanities, chemistry, or the life sciences to reconsider. These fields are completely saturated with PhDs compared to the number of job openings that require a PhD. My experience is in the life sciences where on average you spend 6 years getting your PhD, then usually perform 2 post-docs (each 3-4 years). During this 12-14 year “training period” you make approx 27K (grad-student) and 38K (post-doc). Then the great majority leave research in their mid-thirties to pursue another line of work that doesn’t require a PhD because there are not enough jobs.</p>

<p>For all the crap that humanities phd programs get, it’s worth noting that the abysmal numbers people here spout have little basis in fact. See, for instance, this study: <a href=“http://depts.washington.edu/cirgeweb/c/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/history-report-july-17.pdf[/url]”>http://depts.washington.edu/cirgeweb/c/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/history-report-july-17.pdf&lt;/a&gt; of history PhDs published in 2008. It found that 6-10 years post-degree, more than 65% of degree recipients were in fact employed as tenure track faculty (35% already with tenure, 30% tenure track). More than 16% were employed in business, government, or the non-profit sector, with average salaries substantially above those of the tenure-track faculty (so, though getting a PhD may have been a failure in the sense of finding a tenure-track job, it did not fail to provide an income at least commensurate with the income hoped for upon entry). Another 5.7% were employed as “academic other,” also with salaries at the same level as those of their tenure-track colleagues. 12% were employed as non-tenure track faculty, with substantially lower incomes, which is surely a disappointment, but nothing like the apocalypse that gets talked about here. Also, only 3% were unemployed.</p>

<p>The final point worth noting from that study, is that despite the hordes of internet posters talking about how much they regret their PhDs, 81% would, if they had a chance for a do-over, still have gotten PhDs in history (and another 7% would have gotten PhDs in another field). So sure, it’s a very difficult road, with a lot of uncertainty and risk, but the picture isn’t quite like that which you may get elsewhere.</p>

<p>Caveats: 1. This was pre-financial crisis, which has surely made things worse, but it’s made things worse for people in all industries, with all sorts of educational backgrounds (look at all the young adults just out of college either unemployed or with unpaid internships), so that’s worth keeping in mind.
2. Immediately upon finishing a PhD, things look worse, with only 39% employed in tenure-track jobs (this was of the same sample; that is, respondents reported what their first post-PhD job was as well as their current job), but given that in many other fields (most of the sciences, for instance), a post-doc is basically required prior to getting a faculty position, that many historians also have to find more temporary academic employment initially isn’t really evidence of total disaster.
3. With all this said, all the cautions given to people applying to grad school are in order; it does not guarantee a tenure-track job, you will likely have little choice in where you work if you do get that job, you shouldn’t take out loans to get a humanities PhD, you should try to go to a highly ranked program if possible (the study mentioned did not break down results by quality of program, but one imagines that Yale graduates had substantially better results than those from Wayne State, both of which were included in the study), etc. But the advice of the sort: “nobody ever should get a PhD in the humanities” is at least a bit overblown.</p>

<p>Has anyone tried emigrating from the states/ are PhD job chances out of the country (US) any better?</p>

<p>Some mathematicians move to Europe (mostly continental Europe). It’s usually considered a last resort. Few want to emigrate for good, but it seems difficult to get a tenure-track position in the US after a temporary position in Europe.</p>

<p>What do you value more: your job or your home?</p>

<p>A [Ph.D</a> employment survey](<a href=“http://depts.washington.edu/cirgeweb/c/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/history-report-july-17.pdf]Ph.D”>http://depts.washington.edu/cirgeweb/c/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/history-report-july-17.pdf) studying **people who received their degrees from 1995 through 1999<a href=“p.%203”>/b</a> is about as useful as a Saddam-era Iraqi dinar.</p>

<p>In the intervening period - from 13 to 17 years - already-shrinking public university budgets have taken a brutal hit, faculty are being laid off and those who retire are increasingly being replaced with adjuncts. Even once-flush private universities have run into financial troubles.</p>

<p>Furthermore, the methodology strongly suggests a bias toward employed faculty. Only 45% of the eligible population responded and it is reasonable to assume that a significant percentage of the non-responding majority failed to respond because they are not employed as faculty and didn’t want to dwell on the embarrassment and pain that comes with discussing an inability to find a job in their given field.</p>

<p>In fact, the survey’s authors candidly admit **“There is also an overrepresentation of respondents in academia due to the process of contacting people”<a href=“p.%203”>/b</a>. They go into no further detail nor do they attempt to quantify the level of overrepresentation. Therefore, IMO, the “65%” figure is highly suspect.</p>

<p>Rose-colored glasses, to say the least.</p>

<p>I should add that this is non-response bias, a known flaw with [self-administered</a> surveys](<a href=“http://depts.washington.edu/cirgeweb/c/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/ss5-methods-paper.pdf]self-administered”>http://depts.washington.edu/cirgeweb/c/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/ss5-methods-paper.pdf) such as the one at issue. People whose experience is negative and/or societally perceived as “shameful” have far less motivation to take the time to respond to surveys about that experience. [Thus</a>, their experiences are vastly undercounted](<a href=“http://illume.arizona.edu/sites/illume.arizona.edu/files/nonrespbiast.pdf]Thus”>http://illume.arizona.edu/sites/illume.arizona.edu/files/nonrespbiast.pdf).</p>

<p>From Babbie, The Practice of Social Research, 2007, on response rates:</p>

<p>• 50% is adequate
• 60% is good
• 75% is very good
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<p>This suggests that, particularly given the small population at issue, 45% is too low a response rate to draw any real, generalizable conclusions anyway.</p>

<p>Honestly, my first reaction is to blame the people going into massive amounts of debt for sub par degrees/training (I don’t mean the field, I mean the quality of degree within the fields). For example, a lot of suspicious PsyD schools are popping up. These professional schools cost about 200k in debt (because there is no funding) and produce untrained “professionals” who then have difficulty landing quality internships, post docs, etc. Once they finally make it through, they provide spotty and extremely overpriced mental health services to make up for their loans.</p>

<p>You should absolutely not be going to a social sciences phD with 100k of loans. No way. All of the best psychology programs that provide the best training offer fully/mostly-funded opportunities for the most qualified applicants.</p>

<p>As someone who dropped out of a PhD program in 2012, trust me, it just isnt worth it. Unless you get like a scholarship or something. Kick those plans and rethink your perspective.</p>