The one and only time I'm going to do this

<p>I know it's really hard to say, but in what ballpark would you say my likelyhood of admission ED at Princeton is?</p>

<p>White Male
GPA: 4.0 UW
Class Rank: 1/~400 shared with around 20 or so at a good public school in Oregon.
Courseload: Pretty much the toughest available.
SAT: New SAT, 2270 (M:770 CR:750 W:750) I don't know if Princeton allows you to mix in old SAT scores but if it does toss in an extra 20 points to the math score. Matters very very little I know but I thought I'd mention it.
SATII: Math Level 2 800, US History 770, Physics in October.
AP: US History 5, Calculus AB 5, Government 5.
AIME Qualifier getting 4 questions right (Most proud I've ever been of a 27% test ;))</p>

<p>Extra Curriculars:
Four years of basketball with the last two Varsity, probably a team captain this year.
Four years of varsity tennis. (Neither of these I believe myself to be D1 level at so no recruiting or anything).
Young Life Student Leader (11,12)
Fellowship of Christian Athletes (11,12)
Gay-Straight Alliance (9,10) (I'm pretty sure we don't have one anymore)
Scrabble Club member (10,11,12) (Plus 2004 school champion)
An OK amount of community service (tutoring, helping out with kid's basketball camps, pulling ivy, etc)
Founder and Co-Dictator of the Connect Four Club (12, just for fun but it might get a laugh)
Probably more stuff I'm forgetting as of now but the two sports are the big ones that I'm passionate about and devote a ton of time to.</p>

<p>Anything else? I had a collapsed lung which hospitalized me for a two weeks last year, my essay about it should be pretty good. My prospective major is psychology. I expect my essays will set me apart but then again so does every applicant.</p>

<p>Again I know it's really tough to say but I'm guessing my chance of admission (including after a deferral) to be around 30%. Is that optimistic, pessemistic, or about right?</p>

<p>I have no idea where you got that 30%, but you have a decent shot at getting in. Scores are good, rank is nice, EC's are strong, and you're pretty confident with your essays. Good luck!</p>

<p>The 30% is just my little guesstimate.</p>

<p>Nice AIME score! I got one lol.. Do you have awards/honors that you forgot to mention? Without that I'd say your chance lies around 25%...this is just my guess.</p>

<p>Meh, 25, 30...seems my expectations are fairly realistic. As for honors and awards, just some dinky little things here and there that I don't think will pull much weight.</p>