Dadtwogirls makes a good point when he questions the absoluteness of the reach-match-safety approach. But i dont think he goes far enough.
Once you get into flyover regions, you will find something inconceivable to many collegeconfidential posters: a LOT of students’ first few choices are colleges they will certainly get into. In many states (e.g. Kansas, Idaho, Nebraska) even a lot of honor students don’t give the slightest glance at anything but in-state publics, which often automatically admit even applicants with barely mediocre grades & test scores.