Question for the forum - Do these two schools - “Lawrenceville and Peddie” offer admit with waitlist financial aid (if the candidate applied for FA) or they just waitlist/reject the candidate if they think they cant offer sufficient FA ?
I have to disagree @Heading2HS as boarding schools and colleges just like airlines “overbook” and admit considerably more students than they know will enroll. Has the Common App and Gateway apps encouraged applicants to apply to more schools? Absolutely, but most schools manage their yield very well. They definitely have a surprise here or there and a student back out in the summer months, but it is a rare situation.
Unfortunately I have to agree with @MAandMEmom My better half is the type that wherever we are he’s trying to figure out how “it works” so when we spent time with AOs over the past several months he asked a lot of questions like this. Schools that have 100 beds are not saying yes to 100 kids. They are saying yes to 130 kids (or whatever overage corresponds to their typical yield) so after the expected number of kids say no to the school that school is aiming to have 100 kids.
Unfortunately, I think there are more that will agree to disagree with @Heading2HS I also think the past experiences will disprove their theory. But all we can do is give our best advice. Do with it what you will.
@MysticBaguette, I recommend you give it all you’ve got. This way you will have no regrets regardless of the outcome. Good luck!
@M0hammad I was going to respond to your thread but it got locked 
Are you set on boarding is that why you are not happy with the BB&N and Commonwealth result? Both are great schools. Commonwealth is less well known but a teacher friend of mine says it is VERY highly regarded in the teacher community. He interviewed there and was very impressed with the kids.
Yields have been generally pretty constant (and in some cases, are up), perhaps due to the increased number of international applicants, and despite Gateway/multiple online applications. It appears more first/second generation students are applying to BS as well.
As has been often stated here on CC, if a school’s yield is the same or higher than predicted, its WL may be barely touched. And there are a LOT of kids on each school’s wait list. Hundreds.
Regardless of yield, a school may have a specific need (QB, cellist, goalie, etc.) and could go to their very deep wait list for that particular slot.
Yields have actually climbed at some top schools. PA has seen its yield increase a bit (to 80ish), PEA from high 60s to high 70s, CRH is up a couple of points to mid 60s. Thacher is up a tad, 80 or more. (Boarding schools with relatively high day student percentages (PA, CRH, Loomis, MX) have very high day-student yields and comparatively lower boarding admit yields).
Yield sensitivity: At Deerfield, each 1% “miss” on its yield estimate could open up about 3 spots on the WL. (Deerfield stated it had 1980 applications this year. It has about 200 spots. Its yield is normally around 65%, ==>> 308 acceptances. If its actual yield dropped to 63 percent (a big drop for it), that would mean 194 students accepted a spot, opening up 6 spots on the wait list).
Thanks for that explanation @BordDuLac. I was going to respond to @Heading2HS that each school’s yield management formula has already accounted for the multi-/cross-application phenomena. I know it’s hard to accept the limbo of a WL but, no matter how you imagine it works, the odds of getting off one are exceedingly low.
@dogsmama1997 No I’m perfectly happy with BB&N and Commonwealth! Both amazing schools. I also am perfectly happy with either boarding or day. I just want to wait for Andover, because I feel like it’s such a perfect fit. However, it’s not that I’m stressed or anything about it. I’m planning to enroll at BB&N, while staying on the waitlist for Andover. If by chance I come off the waitlist at Andover (which I know is very unlikely), I will enroll at Andover and forfeit my first deposit, which isn’t much since I have almost full financial aid.
The trick with waitlist is just focusing on the schools you got into and not the ones you got waitlisted. Love the school that loves you!
@BordDuLac, thanks for the detailed explanation. I now have a much better understanding of how yields work.
2007 post is a good analysis - I very much agree.
To take this post and my #1997 further, if a school has 200 spots to fill, they will likely extend 300 offers expecting 67% yield. They may extend 200 WL (an assumption, but it would be a poor reflection on any school if AO really sends that many WL.) Among the 200 WL, likely only half will choose to stay on. Therefore, by the time 3 or 6 spots come in, the chance for WL admission would be 3~6% - still low but some real chance.
Perhaps, AO handed out 100WL, and 50 accepted them. In that case, the WL have 6~12% chance.
And for schools with unfavorable headline news, WL pool could very well see the admission chance goes up to 12~24%.
The waitlist positions offered and the percent of them accepted are variables with a wide range of possibilities, as only the AOs really know, and the numbers likely vary even further by school. One could guess some ranges and plug them into a Monte Carlo type simulation to yield a probability distribution that for highly selective schools in undoubtedly centered on a single digit percent. But more importantly, the WL is not a lottery. So if school X needs to fill a spot for a 10th grade boarding girl, and there are 5 of them on a WL of 300 total kids…each of those girls has a 20% chance (making the incorrect assumption that they are equal and would be drawn by lottery). But all 9th grade boarding boys on the list have exactly 0% chance at that spot.
In summary, much as I like math and statistics, it just isn’t a math or statistics scenario.
MODERATOR’S NOTE:
Let’s move on from trying to dazzle the kids with statistical calculations. It’s not the purpose of this thread, and will only lead to debate, which is not allowed. Believe the math analysis, or don’t. I personally, do not.
Hey, does anyone know what the waitlist is like for twins, and 10th graders? I’m not sure If the WL is the same for different grades and twins.
As at least one parent here knows from experience, from a WL perspective twins are not a set. A school has been known to admit one twin from the WL, but not the other.
10th graders off the WL depends on the school. If they need no more 10th graders, they will take none even if they take 9th or 11th graders from the WL.
For all the patient explanations included many times in this thread, it is impossible to ascribe chances to any WL. @Altras’s description above should make it clear that the many variables are not only unknown but are completely unpredictable and random as it is impossible to know who will choose not to matriculate at any given school. If a school needs to fill two slots with female boarders, chromosomes and sleeping arrangements determine the potential picks. If they need two 10th grade boys, no 9th or 11th grade females have a shot. See how this works? No way to ascribe percentages or changes to this process, so please let that line of reasoning die.
Best wishes to those on a waitlist. I wish, as a family, we had known that there was very little movement on BS waitlists. Even though I had read many old posts, I didn’t want to believe it and neither did my student. Glad in the end, that one day it happened and my kid decided that was it. Decided to love the schools that had said Yes and go from there.
If you are on a waitlist. What’s your Plan B. Can you make it better? Do you have other options you didn’t pursue? IF so, I’d advise doing your best to set things in motion in terms of what you can control.
@Happytimes2001 we were the same! And looking back, I’m embarrassed that we were so stupid because DS got into his #2 school but was still clinging to his #1 who had WLd him. Best part is, he now sees that he landed in the best fit for him.
Buuznkid2 is very WL savvy because of our experience, though, and already has Plans B, C and D outlines in her head!
@buuzn03 Live and learn. Good Buuzkid2 learned the lessons from #1. In the end, it worked out beautifully. The first choice for Happykid would have pushed it all to the limit and left very little room for joy. Choice #2 has opened up a whole new world with balance. And balance is huge to us as parents.