<p>I think this is a good thread. First, I agree that there isn’t really “luck” or “randomness” involved, I do think that there is a high degree of unpredictability for many applicants. I think that Dbate essentially has it right that this unpredictability comes from many applicants being in the same “niche” or category. Let’s face it: if you are a URM with very high grades and scores, and some good ECs, you face substantially less unpredictability than a white or Asian applicant with very high grades and scores and good but typical school-based ECs.
It’s my observation after reading a lot of accepted/rejected threads at some of the top schools that if you really want to strategize to increase your admissibility to those schools, the best thing you can do (aside from getting top grades and scores) is to pursue your principle extracurricular interests as far as you can, and especially pursue them outside of your high school. Using your summers to do this can be effective.
Also: the unpredictability also means that you have to use wise strategy in making your list of schools, with reach, match, and safety schools, and if you are looking at very selective reach schools, apply to enough of them to reduce the unpredictability a bit.</p>