Thoughts on ranking MT programs

College Majors Musical Theater Major
1

<p>By way of introduction, I'm kind of a nerdy math dad negotiating the rough waters of the MT application process. There have been posts from time to time asking people to rank MT programs and these have usually been responded to in a somewhat negative fashion. The writers are told to look at posts to see which names come up frequently or told that there are no official rankings and that this is a personal and individual process and it is so multifactorial that no rankings are meaningful.</p>

<p>Well, I happen to agree with this, but found myself looking at a relatively large amount of data that is being posted and it occurred to me that the acceptance data can be used to produce relative rankings of programs. For example, if many students are turning down program A to attend program B, then one would surmise that for "some reason" program B is viewed as more desirable and thus, could be ranked above program A.</p>

<p>I recognize that this possibly has nothing to do with the relative quality of programs and may have much to do with location or costs or availability of scholarships or the beauty of the campus. One the other hand it seems to be an interesting way to view these programs and could be instructive to students deciding where to apply. For these reasons, I urge the reader to view this data with "a grain of salt".</p>

<p>Anyway, I spent this evening putting the data on a spreadsheet and will summarize it here. For the list of programs, I restricted myself to MT programs only. I used the list of programs individually listed at the top of the initial Musical Theater page (I added Westminster Choir College to this as it seems to come up frequently). For each final choice, I recorded the programs that were rejected and clearly several programs seemed to consistently attract applicants who had a choice of 2 or more programs.</p>

<p>For example, in the case of Univ of Michigan: vocaldad's S turned down CCM, Baldwin-Wallace, OCU and BreatheEasy's S turned down Point Park, Emerson, Hartt, Syracuse, CMU for a total of 8 schools rejected.</p>

<p>THE LISTING (In order of the number of other schools rejected by "final decision" applicants):</p>

<p>Univ of Michigan (8 other schools rejected)
CCM (7 other schools rejected)
Elon (7 other schools rejected)
CMU (6 other schools rejected)
Otterbein (5 other schools rejected)
Boston Conservatory (4 other schools rejected)
Oklahoma City (4 other schools rejected)
NYU-Tisch (2 other schools rejected)
UArts (2 other schools rejected)
Pace (2 other schools rejected)</p>

<p>Now please don't get all hot and bothered. Clearly this is preliminary data and only possible one way to view these schools. That being said, I'm interested in hearing your thoughts.</p>

2

<p>Broadway Dad, </p>

<pre><code> Go back into the more recent pages and find "Top Ten MT schools"
</code></pre>

3

<p>Broadway Dad,
I applaud your attempt to quantify these schools but need to point out that some of us are not posting all of the information you might need to make an accurate assessment.. I personally know of 7 people , my child included, who have not posted all of their acceptance, some or all of their rejections, or their final decision- all for various reasons. All 7 of us have one or more of the schools you have listed, plus other ones. And all have now made final decisions. This lack of information skews your assessment.. Additionally, all of our children are in touch, through facebbook acceptance pages, with a lot of other kids around the country in addition to the ones they met at auditions that are considering the same or similar schools, and many of them do not even post on CC. So you must be sure to take you own information with more than one grain of salt! Good luck.</p>

4

<p>This has been the subject of at least one or two threads before that I have seen. Unfortunately, it just isn't a matter that lends itself to easy analysis, especially based on CC numbers, for a whole lot of reasons. As a fellow math geek (CPA) I'll make a few observations. None meant to be critical, just to make for your consideration.</p>

<p>I think the first caveat would obviously be that this is only a subset of the people going into these programs, that subset being limited to those who (a) have found and become active on CC and (b) have posted their results. To recognize whether that subset is a valid representation beyond CC we would need to know how the CC posters compared to the entire universe of posters.</p>

<p>The second caveat is that there may be no rhyme or reason visible to us as to why someone ended up with the choice of schools that they did. On your list, Elon ranks higher than Tisch. Many would probably argue that Tisch Cap21 would be a top tier school. I saw a post on the rejection thread earlier today where someone had been rejected from Elon but accepted at Tisch/Cap 21. Obviously they chose Cap21, but they didn't even have the choice to reject Elon. If they had, that would have adjusted the rankings you considered. Where/how do you account for that?</p>

<p>Next, while regarding the number of schools rejected for the choice. While many auditioned at lots of schools, following conventional wisdom, I notice that there were also many who only had 2-3 acceptances, typically one they "desired" and others that were perhaps "safety". Or maybe they were like my S and for any nuber of reasons only chose to audition at 2-3 schools. In his case he only had 2 to reject and one of those doesn't even show up in the lists. How would that be weighted? For this factor it might be better to consider a percentage weighting rather than absolute numbers of schools rejected.</p>

<p>Also, the auditioning process enters into this somehow. Some schools participate in "Unifieds", coordinated audition dates where a student can "one-stop shop" a number of auditions on the same day. Other schools only audition on their own campus. Some schools (Umich for one) pre-screen and invite you to audition. Elon has audition days without a limit on slots...they tell you they will go as late as needed. OCU (which auditions only on campus) and some of the others have a set number of audition slots available on each day and when they are filled there is no more room. All those factors enter into the analysis somehow in that they have a direct impact on the number of schools a student ends up auditioning at. At a minimum you might try to segregate Unifieds vs on-campus.</p>

<p>Lastly, you need to know how significant the number of people choosing a given school are to the total number accepted to that school. Several schools represented on the CC list seem to have an extraordinary number of their offers represented on the list. Elon, for example, supposedly made offers to 23 in order to fill their 16 slots. 15+ of those 23 have apparently checked in on CC. Most of the schools probably made similar offers but have had many fewer check in. How many those unknows may have rejected thus can't enter the mix.</p>

<p>Lastly, and very importantly, the why of choosing one school over another. I am aware of at least one person who had the chance to attend a specific school many on these boards would consider "top tier" and opted for another for reason that ultimately had more to do with financial; Not that one was NOT as good as the other perhaps, just that the financial value was not perceived to be reasonable.</p>

<p>I do find the CC data to be very helpful. There may even be a way to set up a survey that could help procide some further insights. And clearly, over the past 3 yeasr that seems to be more and more people becoming aware of the CC MT board. I'm just not sure any major definitive conclusions can be drawn beyond some trend data. (and of course, to the extent peole are drawn to CC MT and based on what they read here make decisions about where to apply and choose, there is a bit of self-selecting going on as well).</p>

<p>Does any of that give you some thoughts on how to tweak your analysis?</p>

5

<p>I love your post! Last year, I went over the accptance, rejection and final decision list over and over again. I was looking for some sort of pattern. I tried to determine if there was a correlation between certain colleges and accepted students. For instance last year, it seemed that BoCo and PPU made offers to many of the same students. Now I am not a numbers person and I HATE math, but I find stuff like this interesting. In the end I gave up trying to analyze the lists because it was just too mind boggling for me to deal with. However, it does seem to me that there is so much information in those lists that someone with a math brain could make some use of it.
As far as ranking goes, It is so hard to determine. What makes a kid accept one school and turn down others. Is it the strength of the MT program that makes them accept, is it the financial aid package or a combination of both? Who knows? I can give a whole bunch of logical reasons why my d chose NYU (over some great programs), but the truth is she just feels like that is the place for her. It just feels right to her. Good luck with the numbers--- I really wish I were a math brain!</p>

6

<p>I, too, am a math person and CPA. I love the analysis by BroadwayDad and also agree with the things posted by WMonMTDad. I'm always impressed when you dads join us moms in these discussions! We seem to be getting more and more dads involved!</p>

<p>I love where Elon fell out on your list. Don't you think that it could be that more people at Elon are hearing about CC than perhaps at some of the other schools? I still like the fact that they seem to be doing well this year!</p>

<p>When we were looking at schools, I spent time twice going through online cast bios of Broadway musicals to see which schools showed up the most. Many people in their bios do not list a school, either because they no longer deem it important or very likely because they did not even go to college. Sometimes one will find a large number of people who graduated from NYU or Northwestern. I tried to remember that these schools graduate very many students each year, so their numbers are not surprising. A smaller program that has been around for fewer years (such as Elon) will not be represented as well. I believe that Elon currently has 3 people on Broadway.</p>

<p>The last time I did the Broadway analysis, which was at least 1 1/2 years ago, I found that the top 3 with representation on Broadway were, in no particular order, U Michigan, CCM, and CMU. There are probably more than a few people who would rank these as the top 3 MT programs.</p>

<p>For us, it was a matter of the school that ranked right for us, not what other people thought about a program.</p>

<p>Still, it's fun to do these different types of comparisons!</p>

7

<p>Wow. It seems that I'm not the only person up late tonight. Thanks for all of your thoughts.
Tritalentsmom : What can I say? One can only work with the data one is provided with. Hopefully the people posting their decisions are at least a representative sample of the applicant pool. This board is only useful if people participate. The more people posting, the better the data. Why not encourage the people you know to post their data too?
WMonMTDad : Very interesting post! Don't worry about Tisch too much. With NOLAMOM's data they've already moved up with 5 schools rejected. Remember we have relatively few data points so far and I expect things to change quite a bit. I don't know how to get accurate rejection data although I agree that it would make for interesting analysis. If one accepted the prevailing wisdom that UMich, CCM and CMU are among the most sought after schools AND also that they are taking the best applicants, why are the same students not accepted at all three programs. It seems clear that the decisions seem quite subjective and even random between programs. Of course, we really don't know what each school is looking for. Sadly, we have been asked to play a game without really being told the "rules". My method only uses the acceptances so I don't think that separating the audition method would really help, although that would be another approach.
I agree that Elon is very well represented on this board. Actually one would expect that NYU and BOCO with their large class sizes might be overrepresented instead. Maybe lurkers will be now more encouraged to stand up!
NOLAMOM : I agree that is seems that there are patterns in different schools acceptances. Possibly they have similar philosophies or admissions people with similar training. One that jumps out is that Elon and Syracuse seem to be looking at the many of the same people (5 people accepted to both). Interesting!</p>

8

<p>And what about all the kids who applied ED to their first choice programs and got in, and thus will matriculate there? Or all the kids who auditioned and are not on CC?</p>

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<p>WOW! Fascinating.......maybe not totally relevant as it is such a subjective process. If , for example, you happen to be the 3rd petite female lyric soprano seen by CMU and you are BRUNETTE and they need a blonde.... you don't get in. </p>

<p>In any artistic pursuit those of us who are geeky(my engineering self included in that group :) seek to uncover some logic in the process. Suffice it to say that it just cannot be a truly logical process in my humble opinion. I have been on the chosing side of a production table(not even close to the level of this process) and I KNOW how many factors go into selection - and not all of them have to do with talent or smarts or anything else. Many schools are looking for a 'look' but you may never know what that look is. </p>

<p>I wish this was a black and white appication/entry process. It would make it a whole lot easier than it was! </p>

<p>But as I said "FASCINATING"!!!!!!!!!!!!</p>

<p>Keep smilin :)
MikksMom</p>

10

<p>I have tried to refrain from this thread but apparently can't stop myself. This effort is starting to splice hairs or count angels on the head of a pin, I'm afraid. The number of kids auditioning for these programs is the true "numeric" part of the rankings equation, followed by the number of offers made by the school. I think we avoid using the traditional applications/offers/yield calculations for MT because the numbers are so difficult to accept. For example, with 9 kids accepted to CMU of 1200 who auditioned for MT, who in their right minds would enter the fray? Obviously, my S did and it turned out as he hoped but to calculate this in advance at this level of detail would have added even more stress. He knew this was the school he most wanted. Yes, U Mich and CCM were in the mix but not at the top. (One turned him down and for the other, he pulled his app.) Kids need to audition at all of the most competitive programs unless they absolutely do not like one of them. They also need to try at others at which they believe they could make progress in this field because they frankly can't count on getting into schools with 1-4% admission rates. (Remember, Harvard's admission rate is 9%!) If at all possible, they should also try to have some BA/liberal arts options and feel good about those, too. Rankings in this kind of highly competitive environment only make a kid feel that much more under pressure.</p>

11

<p>Mikksmom...</p>

<p>One word: PEROXIDE!!!!!</p>

<p>(Couldn't resist)</p>

<p>And of course, you have to consider the impact of the auditioner on any given day. While we dream that every audition is perfect, consistent, and definitive...everyone has a bad day. If it's the wrong day, then what?</p>

<p>I guess that's why everytime someone posts a new message: "my S/D got into x, y, z, which should I choose" it ultimately comes back to "compare everything and then...go with your gut!"</p>

<p>Doesn't this all fall somewhat in a left brain/right brain thing? All us technical type parents do all sorts of number crunching, researching, analyzing and agonizing and then the artistic kids go with what feels best (within any immutable constraints, of course)</p>

12

<p>As others from within the "business" have pointed out, there is a difference between "top ranked" from a "consumer/customer" perspective (i.e. applicants and their families) and how the industry views the schools. There are many programs that are very highly regarded in the industry that may not have commensurate consumer recognition, therefore do not draw as many applicants/graduates and therefore may appear under-represented in the industry.</p>

13

<p>I love your attempt at analysis of such things. However, being a mathmatician, surely you realize the insignificance of your trial size using CC stats and the fact that the CC sample would be an atypical sample in any case. But a fun idea that should not be taken too seriously.</p>

14

<p>I've done some thinking about WMonMTDad's thoughts last night. He is correct that an overrepresented school will appear higher on the list. Fortunately, this is easy to fix. Just divide the total number of schools tuened down by the number of people responding and use the average number of MT schools turned down by attending students (I'll refer to this as the tps "turn downs per student").</p>

<p>Again this is only for fun and not any sort of true ranking of the quality of the respective schools. It may, however, reflect the desirability of individual schools to applicants when they are fortunate enough to have been provided with a choice between MT programs.</p>

<p>Anyway, here is the list redone with the additional data from NOLAMOM last evening. (Note that two of the schools are represented by only one student.)</p>

<p>THE LISTING (modified):</p>

<p>tps = average number of MT schools turned down by attending students</p>

<p>Univ of Michigan (2 attending / 8 other schools turned down = 4 tps)
CCM (2 attending / 7 other schools turned down = 3.5 tps)
CMU (2 attending / 6 other schools turned down = 3 tps)
Otterbein (2 attending / 5 other schools turned down = 2.5 tps)
Elon (3 attending / 7 other schools turned down = 2.3 tps)
Boston Conservatory (2 attending / 4 other schools turned down = 2.0 tps)
Oklahoma City (2 attending / 4 other schools turned down = 2.0 tps)
UArts (1 attending / 2 other schools turned down = 2.0 tps)
Pace (1 attending / 2 other schools turned down = 2.0 tps)
NYU-Tisch (3 attending / 5 other schools turned down = 1.7 tps)</p>

15

<p>Many thanks to the person who emailed me with a correction to the data.</p>

<p>With regards to the Elon numbers:
Theaterfan07 turned down Syracuse, Shenandoah
txmtmom's S turned down PPU
nydancemom's D turned down PSU, Point Park, Baldwin-Wallace, Syracuse, Muhlenberg, NYU/Tisch
for a total of 9 schools turned down not 7 as previously posted.</p>

<p>THE (newest) LISTING :</p>

<p>tps = average number of MT schools turned down by attending students</p>

<p>Univ of Michigan (2 attending / 8 other schools turned down = 4 tps)
CCM (2 attending / 7 other schools turned down = 3.5 tps)
CMU (2 attending / 6 other schools turned down = 3.0 tps)
Elon (3 attending / 9 other schools turned down = 3.0 tps)
Otterbein (2 attending / 5 other schools turned down = 2.5 tps)
Boston Conservatory (2 attending / 4 other schools turned down = 2.0 tps)
Oklahoma City (2 attending / 4 other schools turned down = 2.0 tps)
UArts (1 attending / 2 other schools turned down = 2.0 tps)
Pace (1 attending / 2 other schools turned down = 2.0 tps)
NYU-Tisch (3 attending / 5 other schools turned down = 1.7 tps)</p>

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<p>How will the number of schools applied to be in the equation? That would have a bearing on the number of schools turned down (ie...applied to 8 or 15 would skew the data in terms of number of turn downs)</p>

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<p>Ericksmom,
I also tried to do the same sort of broadway analyisis and my analyisis was the same as yours. NYU was well represented (I did mine in Jan. 2007), however, not in comparison to the number of kids that graduate from NYU verses the number of kids that graduate from the other schools. Also, with the NYU grads, it was difficult to determine if they graduated from CAP or one of the other studios. I also found that a lot of the actors/actresses did not name a college in their bio. My analyiss was from current broadway shows only, not shows on tour.</p>

<p>Like I said in an earlier post, I am not a numbers person, I just find this all very interesting.</p>

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<p>I don't quite understand the point of this--I'm mathematical myself and I don't see how this data can be analyzed with any sort of statistical significance. Either the analysis is bogus or it's not. If it is bogus, what's the point of discussing it? There are so many ways this is not a statistical or meaningful analysis, but I'll focus on only a couple: The main one is that this is not a random sampling of people by any means. For instance, more 'unconnected newbies' (like me) would use this than otherwise. </p>

<p>In addition, there are many many reasons kids reject colleges--financial, personal vibe, location, etc. Many people do not choose their first choice school even after being admitted. As far as Broadway presence--you can't go by the Playbill (is that how you got the info)? Many actors dont' put their schools into the Playbills; typically only first years do. YOu might make a case that a school like U of Mich gets a hire percentage of 21 year olds into a Broadway musical than a school like CAP 21. Perhaps. But that's only part of the picture. Getting on Broadway once is great, but it is only a very small step in a far bigger picture. Also, many actors do something else before Broadway, and many actors follow the straight acting route. </p>

<p>It's important to consider so many factors, such as connections, reputation, quality, and stamina above all-- what percentage of graduates are still in the field five, ten years later? What is the field anyway?--Broadway or bust? Or something broader than that?</p>

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<p>raphael...there really isn't a lot of significance; we are largely left-brain analytical worry-wart parent types who are looking for some way to convince ourselves we're doing our part to help guide our kids. humor us, we mean no harm :)</p>

20

<p>I believe Raphael's post above is right on target. </p>

<p>Also, at the risk of offending BroadwayDad and the other mathematically oriented among us, can anybody describe a scenario in which such a stats-based model would actually be used?</p>

<p>Would it be used to build a preliminary list of MT programs to explore? This forum and its "Big List" already provides an excellent starting point. </p>

<p>Would it be used to narrow a list down to 10 or so programs to audition for? As has been discussed many times on CC, that is best done by evaluating curriculum, reputation, performance opportunities, etc., as well as generic college search criteria such as campus size, setting, etc. </p>

<p>Would it be used by a student who has been accepted to multiple MT programs to help make a final decision? I believe that anyone who has been accepted to multiple programs has already done substantial research and preparation, and is quite likely very MT savvy. A person like that is not likely to feel the need to resort to stats about others' decisions. Rather, they will visit the schools, talk to faculty, students, attend a show, walk the campus, consider the generic stuff like cost/fin. aid, etc. and make a gut decision. </p>

<p>If I have missed something, let me know.</p>