Thoughts on the future of EE in specific, and engineering in general

<p>Even though this thread is devoted to EE, I think the concerns I am mentioning will also be valid in other fields. </p>

<p>Apart from the fears of outsourcing, the failing economy, and the limited (earning) potential of an engineering degree, I am concerned about the future of electrical engineering. The other concerns are valid but to-be-expected from any field in one form or another, but engineering potentially suffers from another phenomenon, that of technology becoming obsolete. </p>

<p>My query is prompted by the stance of my professor and TA from a semiconductor course in EE. They have both been quick to mention that the CMOS technology has been improving rapidly over the past several decades, and is close to reaching its peak (ie: things have been scaled down as much as possible). The advancements are expected to continue for another 10 years or so. After that, what will happen, nobody knows... but it is possible that EE will go in the same direction as the automobile and textile industries.</p>

<p>Additionally, it is easy to see that EE is a very well-established field. A quick look at the (undergrad) EE courses at my school yields topics like "Circuit Design/Analysis," "Systems and Signals," "Logic Design," "computing," "DSP," "Analog circuits and electronics," "Communications," "Solid state," and so on... I can't help but feel that many of the above topics are very old and the techniques and technology used have mostly been perfected. </p>

<p>Most of the above comes from things I have heard and read, and only reflects my opinion to some extent. Personally, I find it hard to believe that the field of EE could go obsolete, as a whole. Electronics are everywhere and it doesn't look like we will be replacing electronics with something else anytime soon. But I consider myself naive and inexperienced, so I pose the following questions: </p>

<p>**
1) Does the widespread use of any technology really mean that engineers in that field will be needed for long, or is it just a fallacy?</p>

<p>2) Really how bad is it when technology goes obsolete? The automobile industry has slowed but MechEs are still pretty popular. Steel production has reached its peak, but materials engineers have found other things to do.</p>

<p>3) Is it plausible that an entire field would go obsolete, like electrical? Or just some sub-field, like CMOS?</p>

<p>4) What is the future of engineering in general? No one knows the answer to this, but I'd like to hear what you prospective and current engineers expect from your career, and where you are hoping it will take you. Please try to confine your answers to the technical realm.</p>

<p>5) What are the hottest new fields and why? EE, Chem, Mechanical, and Civil are the fundamentals... what are they expanding to become (materials, bio, nano, energy), and whats a good way of jumping into these new and rather uncertain industries, if you're not interested in actually majoring in them?
**</p>

<p>Sorry for the long post, answer whatever part you like.</p>

<p>Unless we invent intelligent robots to do designs and end up making ourselves obsolete, engineering will be around for the long haul. Everyone's feeling a crunch right about now in terms of getting credit and selling houses, but if we don't live beyond our means, engineers are actually in comparatively good shape. Engineering fields adapt to change with the times, and so long as you individually are not averse to keeping your skill set up-to-date and keep informed as to what the market needs you to be, you'll bounce back from mostly whatever the economy throws at you. Our skill sets are necessary to the continuation of modern existence. Stay aware but definitely don't freak out.</p>

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Unless we invent intelligent robots to do designs and end up making ourselves obsolete, engineering will be around for the long haul.

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<p>But wouldn't designing things just get plain repetitive after a while? How often do you get a new problem at your work? And if any old engineer can design something then wouldn't that adversely affect the demand for engineers? In EE, since the size of microchips keeps getting scaled smaller and smaller, it generates a lot of work for engineers. Once this innovation levels out, then demand for these engineers would get much lower.</p>

<p>I understand that there are other innovations and advancements that you can then try and become a part of (like nanotubes). Whats it like to enter a fresh field like that?</p>

<p>To the OP: I would first preface my remarks by saying that engineering is still a pretty good career, from a relative standpoint. Granted, it's probably not as good of a career as, say, consulting or finance (although with the current Wall Street turmoil, maybe this no longer holds), and engineering certainly has its problems, but it's probably still better than most other careers you could have. I take it that you're an American, and I would simply point out that most Americans don't exactly have great careers. Most Americans would probably trade their career for an engineering career. </p>

<p>Hence, I answer your questions below from a relative standpoint. </p>

<p>
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1) Does the widespread use of any technology really mean that engineers in that field will be needed for long, or is it just a fallacy?

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</p>

<p>The widespread use of technology may wipe out some engineering jobs, but also wipes out far more *non-*engineering jobs. How many travel agents have lost their jobs because of Expedia, Travelocity, and Orbitz? How many retail store clerks have lost their jobs because of Amazon and other e-commerce sites? Hence, I would argue that, while engineers are obviously not perfectly safe, they are more safe than most other jobs out there when it comes to the proliferation of technology. More technology will wipe out certain engineering jobs, but also create many others. See below. </p>

<p>
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2) Really how bad is it when technology goes obsolete? The automobile industry has slowed but MechEs are still pretty popular. Steel production has reached its peak, but materials engineers have found other things to do.

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<p>Well, first off, you're factually incorrect: steel production has not reached its peak; on the contrary, every year, reaches *another record high *, and is projected to continue to do so for many years into the future, mostly due to the staggeringly high growth rate of demand for steel products in Asia, especially China and India. </p>

<p>"Global crude steel production hit a record high of 1.24 billion tons in 2006, an increase of 10 percent over 2005.1 (See Figure 1.) This was the third consecutive year in which crude steel output exceeded 1 billion tons....The past decade has been the most productive in the history of the steel industry, driven mainly by remarkable growth in China and the Asia region"</p>

<p>Steel</a> Production Soars | Worldwatch Institute</p>

<p>Secondly, the auto industry has not slowed, indeed, world auto sales are also hitting record highs, again because of strong growth in developing countries. </p>

<p>"we expect full-year 2008 volumes to climb to a seventh consecutive annual record, buoyed by ongoing strength in Brazil, Russia, China and India"</p>

<p>Emerging</a> economies to drive world auto sales to record highs | AFP | Find Articles at BNET</p>

<p>I think what you may mean to say is that U.S. sales may be slowing. Yet even so, we live in a globalized economy and one of the sources of growth in the US economy over the last few years (and which has prevented us from hitting recession) has been exports. US customers may be buying fewer US products, but worldwide customers are still buying a lot. </p>

<p>But to answer your direct question, obviously when a technology becomes obsolete, those who know only that technology will have problems. But this is true not only for engineers, but for everybody. For example, those secretaries who only knew how to type and nothing else were completely blindsided by the advent of computer word processing, when office managers realized that they could produce documents themselves without relying on their secretaries. Old-time bookkeepers and accountants who kept records in standard accounting books were rendered obsolete by computer spreadsheets and accounting software. </p>

<p>The key is to therefore be constantly learning and retraining to develop new skills throughout your career to replace your old skills. That also means that you have to manage your career strategically: you have to constantly angle to be put on new projects that will provide you with opportunities to learn new skills. You can't just sit back and passively assume that your employer will hand you opportunities to update your skills; maybe they will, maybe they won't. You have to take the initiative to read trade magazines, network with others, and do what it takes to know what is happening in your field. Sometimes that may also mean changing jobs, i.e. if you can see that your employer is falling behind technologically. </p>

<p>But again, I think engineering is still better off than most other careers in this respect. A properly trained engineering student will have the ability to quickly learn new technologies. </p>

<p>
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3) Is it plausible that an entire field would go obsolete, like electrical? Or just some sub-field, like CMOS?

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<p>Subfields have definitely become obsolete. For example, practically nobody cares about the telegraph anymore (although obviously the principles of telegraphy, and of general signal analysis, are still highly applicable). Nobody really cares about the floppy disk anymore. </p>

<p>Entire fields may, in the future, become obsolete. For example, surely one day, the field of petroleum engineering will be obsolete when the world has successfully transitioned to another fuel. I just don't think that will happen in my lifetime. </p>

<p>But, again, the goal is not to be a prisoner of your discipline, but to be willing to branch out and learn new technologies. Telegraphy engineers who didn't learn new technologies became obsolete. But those who did learn new technologies were the ones who participated in the strong growth of the radio and telephone industries. </p>

<p>
[quote]
4) What is the future of engineering in general? No one knows the answer to this, but I'd like to hear what you prospective and current engineers expect from your career, and where you are hoping it will take you. Please try to confine your answers to the technical realm.

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<p>Like I said above, while engineering clearly has its problems as a career path, I would still argue that it is still a relatively strong career choice. The greater proliferation of technology that will permeate our lives will mean greater opportunities for people who understand technology and hence can see possibilities to combine technical systems together. </p>

<p>For example, I know a guy who is working on an Iphone web mashup that will compare and contrast how long it will probably take, and what it will cost, to get from 2 points in a city, via either taxi, public transit (and a link to see when the next bus/subway is coming), or just walking. For example, if I'm in NYC, and I want to get from the Empire State Building to Carnegie Hall, I would input that into my Iphone, and it would tell me how much it would probably cost via taxi (and how long it would take, presuming that a taxi is available), vs. how long it would take via bus/subway and the fare, vs. how long it would take for me to just walk there. People who don't know technology will not be able to exploit these opportunities. Heck, they may even be able to see them. </p>

<p>
[quote]
5) What are the hottest new fields and why? EE, Chem, Mechanical, and Civil are the fundamentals... what are they expanding to become (materials, bio, nano, energy), and whats a good way of jumping into these new and rather uncertain industries, if you're not interested in actually majoring in them?

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</p>

<p>"Hot" has different meanings. Are you talking about 'hot' in terms of the sheer absolute number of opportunities available, or 'hot' in terms of pay, which is a function of not only the number of opportunities but also organizational factors and the supply of trained people? </p>

<p>If 'hotness' means the sheer number of opportunities, then I would go with biotechnology and molecular biology. The country is getting older and hence will require more health care advances, and health care spending will consume a larger and larger share of the nation's GDP. </p>

<p>The problem with biotechnology is that while there are many opportunities, there are also many people competing with you for those opportunities. It's one of those industries where the supply of trained people has probably outrun demand, especially when it comes to engineers. Hence, bio companies realize that they don't really have to offer very good salaries, and if you don't like it, oh well, they'll just offer the job to somebody else. The best opportunities in biotech/bioE seem to be with entrepreneurship, but that usually requires a PhD, or in some cases an MBA. There just isn't that much available for those with just engineering bachelor's degrees. </p>

<p>If by 'hotness' you mean high salaries, then the answer is simple: petroleum engineering. Heck, I'm even hearing of stories of people turning down offers from consulting and banking to take jobs as engineers in the oil industry. </p>

<p>"Top-ranking petroleum-engineering graduates this year can expect starting pay of $80,000 to $110,000, plus signing bonuses and other perks....Texas Tech reports its 2008 graduating seniors will receive an average salary of $110,000...advertising</p>

<p>"It was a good time to get into the oil industry," says Barnum, who will graduate in May and has already accepted a job with Chevron as a production engineer in Midland, Texas. He declined to give his specific salary but said normal offers are between $80,000 and $90,000...An online group for students heading into oil-related careers describes itself thus: "We make the world go 'round, while at the same time making some huge bank.""</p>

<p>Business</a> & Technology | Soaring oil prices good news ... for engineering grads | Seattle Times Newspaper</p>

<p>Just keep in mind that the oil industry is highly volatile. When the price of oil drops, oil companies will mercilessly lay people off. </p>

<p>If by 'hotness', you mean sheer flexibility of degree as far as the ability to find jobs throughout the country (and not just in certain parts of the country like Texas/Louisiana/Oklahoma/Alaska for petroleum engineering, or Boston/Silicon Valley/San Diego for biotech) I would go with CS. Yes, it is true that CS has issues with outsourcing. Hence, you should not just aim to be a simple programmer. Rather, you should view CS as a way to understand technical systems. The world becomes more computerized every day, and computer systems are colonizing ever more parts of technology. For example, computerized fuel injection has basically rendered the purely mechanical carburetor obsolete. Computerized transmissions and drive-by-wire systems will eventually replace the mechanical gearing, belts, and hydraulics of the car. </p>

<p>If you want to jump into these fields without majoring in them, then the best thing to do is to simply get a part-time job in that field, or even just start creating projects on your own. Obviously some fields are easier to jump in than others: for example, even an elementary school kid can get a few books and start building Web 2.0 applications. </p>

<p>But I am convinced that numerous opportunities exist for amateurs and hobbyists in almost any field. For example, high school kids have managed to build working nuclear fusion reactors. Granted, it's not a commercially useful fusion reactor, as it consumes more energy than it produces. But still, it demonstrates the possibilities that are out there.</p>

<p>Radioactive</a> Boy Scout | Weapons & Security | DISCOVER Magazine</p>

<p>I know a guy at MIT who wanted to get a part-time job at a solar energy startup firm. To get the job, he invited the company recruiters outside where he showed them the solar motorcycle that he built himself over one summer and he demonstrated to the company representatives how it worked and how energy-efficient it was. He got a full-time job offer right on the spot. He wasn't even close to graduating, yet the company already wanted to hire him full-time.</p>

<p>
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But wouldn't designing things just get plain repetitive after a while?

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<p>Oh, I don't know, I think it sure beats just working as a production engineer who is on the shop floor supervising the same assembly line every day. But then again, some people seem to enjoy that work, so to each, his own. </p>

<p>I believe the key is to be constantly designing different projects. I can agree that if the designs are basically the same thing, with just a few changes here and there, then sure, that can get pretty boring. But if there are a lot of degrees of freedom: i.e., if you have to try out a lot of different ideas and piece together numerous different modules, then that is quite interesting. </p>

<p>
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And if any old engineer can design something then wouldn't that adversely affect the demand for engineers?

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</p>

<p>One of the most interesting features of human beings is that there are never satisfied. There is always some demand out there that is waiting to be filled. And if that demand gets filled, then some new desire will be created. Often times, people don't even know what they really want until they see it. </p>

<p>For example, who knew that people instead of playing highly photorealistic and fast-paced first-person shooters involving killing enemy soldiers and/or aliens, people actually just wanted to play a relatively simple game that only involves pressing buttons in synchronization with their favorite rock tunes? Yet Guitar Hero is now one of the most popular video games in history. Who knew? </p>

<p>The point is, there is always so much demand for innovation and new products that it's hard for me to see how engineers can ever diminish their own demand simply by designing more products. If anything, more designs would create even more opportunities for innovation as more products means more opportunities to combine technologies to create still more products. </p>

<p>
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In EE, since the size of microchips keeps getting scaled smaller and smaller, it generates a lot of work for engineers. Once this innovation levels out, then demand for these engineers would get much lower.

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</p>

<p>And then some other new problem will crop up which the engineers will need to work on.</p>

<p>Heck, that's happening already, to follow your example. Right now, the microchip industry has become less interested in scaling down its chips more and more because doing so has created ever more problems with heat dissipation. Hence, the focus is less on scaling the chips down and more on how to create energy-efficient chips, i.e. chips that actually shut down a portion of their transistors under low loads, or through dynamic voltage/frequency throttling, and obviously the new trend towards multicore/multi-thread chips, which then introduce their own design problems regarding workload balancing and cache coherency. Once we solve these problems, then other problems will surely crop up because, like I said, consumer demand is never fulfilled. There is always something that the consumer wants that companies cannot (yet) provide. </p>

<p>But again, that emphasizes the importance of learning flexible skills and of keeping up with new trends. 10 years ago, Google didn't even exist. heck, 15 years ago, nobody outside of academia had heard of the Internet. Surely in 10-15 years in the future, there will be other new technologies. The key is to be constantly learning new skills and reading about new technology.</p>

<p>
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But wouldn't designing things just get plain repetitive after a while?

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<p>Yes! Welcome to being a young engineer.</p>

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How often do you get a new problem at your work?

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<p>All the time. Pile 'em on to the old problems that I still get to deal with, but I'm learning something new every day.</p>

<p>
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And if any old engineer can design something then wouldn't that adversely affect the demand for engineers?

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</p>

<p>Not really, because any old engineer can't design a lot of these things. There's a lot more specialties than just your basic civil/chem/mech/elec/whatever divisions. Then also, there are a whole lot of "somethings" left to design. We're not in danger of running out of work.</p>

<p>
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In EE, since the size of microchips keeps getting scaled smaller and smaller, it generates a lot of work for engineers. Once this innovation levels out, then demand for these engineers would get much lower.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>And twenty years ago, there was NO WAY anybody would ever need more than a few megabytes of disk space... Innovation isn't going to level out any time soon.</p>

<p>Major in Power and write your own ticket.</p>

<p>^Could you please elaborate a little? Power seems to me the most boring of all EE work.</p>

<p>Thank you sakky for your thorough response, as always... and aibarr for your quick and useful replies as well.</p>

<p>I'm not particularly concerned about making money, and I'm sorry if my post gave you that impression. As you may already have felt from my other posts, I am very interested in research and working at the frontiers of science. I have always felt that EE is at a very unique intersection of basic science (physics) and technology. Upon hearing that it may go obsolete, I felt concerned about the quality of work that would exist 10, 15, 20, 30... years down the line.</p>

<p>I want to be well-paid (so that I can pay my bills and buy an average house/car) and well-respected, and I'm sure engineering will always be at least good enough for that. However, what I really want is to work on extra-ordinary and groundbreaking technology (research, development, ... whatever) and make a difference. The particular field I am in does not matter too much (they are all coming together anyway) but I've always felt that EE will prepare me well to do this.</p>

<p>And this is why I'm concerned about the demand of EEs... the more demand there is, the more "hot" the field will be considered, and the more money may be poured into it, and the more research and development there will be. And since I'm particularly interested in physics (quantum and all) I was saddened by the projected demise of semiconductor research.</p>

<p>Thinking about Bell Labs and I think AT&T and IBM had large labs as well, always gets me excited. I would like to be part of an era of development just like that one.</p>

<p>Who told you EE's may become obsolete? They are insane. The fact is, there are very few engineering majors compared to most other majors. This means that even if the job opportunities for engineers grow slowly there will still be a large demand for engineers due to a lack of people who can fit the bill. As long as new electronics are being developed there will be a need for EE's. Most would not consider EE to be a "hot" career but I can pretty much garauntee you will have no problem finding a job as an EE. It's one of the broadest degrees you can get.</p>

<p>Obsolete in the sense that there won't be much direct innovation in the field. You will still need EEs to design (what I think would be mundane) things... circuits for common devices, power related issues, designing electrical structures, etc. Basically things that have been done before but need to be done again under different circumstances... nothing entirely new.</p>

<p>Most of the things I'm saying are conjectures since I have no experience in the real engineering world. I see a lot of great things happening in my school's EE department and I'm excited about that... I just hope it continues to some extent in industry and work as well.</p>

<p>
[quote]
Obsolete in the sense that there won't be much direct innovation in the field. You will still need EEs to design (what I think would be mundane) things... circuits for common devices, power related issues, designing electrical structures, etc. Basically things that have been done before but need to be done again under different circumstances... nothing entirely new.

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<p>But this is entirely wrong.</p>

<p>I mean, even in structures, one would think that there's not a heck of a lot one can do with the same ol' steel and concrete that people have been using for eons, but there's a ridiculous amount of innovation going on in the field.</p>

<p>Same with electrical engineering. I think you're probably just not far enough into the field to see it yet. Go to grad school; you'll see what a crazy amount of innovation is going on in the elec field.</p>

<p>We all do mundane stuff, because there's just a lot of mundane calculations to do for <em>any</em> endeavor... But we also do a lot of really cool innovation in engineering. All fields. No danger of running out.</p>

<p>
[quote]
Obsolete in the sense that there won't be much direct innovation in the field. You will still need EEs to design (what I think would be mundane) things... circuits for common devices, power related issues, designing electrical structures, etc. Basically things that have been done before but need to be done again under different circumstances... nothing entirely new.

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<p>If there were no innovations to be made then these fields of engineering would not be needed. There are tons of innovations left to be made, probably an infinite amount. There are new products to develope and old ones to renovate and improve.</p>

<p>Thanks for addressing my doubts everyone. It makes me hopeful for the future. Feel free to contribute further to this thread.</p>

<p>Ok, so we've talked about fields in general, but what about the <em>individuals</em> in a field? Particularly highly specialized ones. What happens to a guy with a PhD in semiconductor physics when transistors can't be shrunk anymore?</p>

<p>Then they'll have a delightful challenge figuring out the new technology necessary to shrink them even <em>more</em>.</p>

<p>OP, I kind of agree with you. I would study CS if I were to start over again, not EE.</p>

<p>lol... but CS folk tell me otherwise. And I kind of believe them. CS is far easier to pick up on your own than EE is, in my opinion. There is a lot of advanced stuff in CS that you should go to college for but you don't really need it to get a job. And its not like programming languages don't go obsolete. </p>

<p>The only thing that really scares me is that EE doesn't advance nearly as fast as CS... so I suppose stuff doesn't really go obsolete as fast but new fields/applications (that you can jump into) emerge slowly as well.</p>

<p>Are you a student btw, Columbia_Student?</p>

<p>
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Ok, so we've talked about fields in general, but what about the <em>individuals</em> in a field? Particularly highly specialized ones. What happens to a guy with a PhD in semiconductor physics when transistors can't be shrunk anymore?

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</p>

<p>Semiconductor physics is not just about shrinking transistors. Other major challenges would include the exploration of development of semiconductors on materials other than traditional crystalline silicon, as those other materials have certain properties that may make them superior to silicon for certain applications. For example, we already use gallium-arsenide semiconductor devices in wireless communications (i.e. cellphone, satellite) because Ga-As has superior signal-to-noise and can function at higher frequencies than can silicon. It also may have superior characteristics for use in lighting, i.e. to create energy-efficient LED's that can replace incandescent light bulbs. Crystalline germanium may offer superior properties in capturing energy in photovoltaic cells and hence provide a breakthrough to cheap solar power. Surely researchers will explore other interesting properties of and create devices from other semiconductor materials. </p>

<p>You can also formulate and develop entirely new types of semiconductor devices. For example, just a few months ago, researchers at HP Labs published in Nature the creation of the world's first true memristor, which had previously existed only in theory. This is a revolutionary advance in electrical engineering because now rather than having just the basic 3 circuit building blocks: the resistor, capacitor, and inductor, you now have a 4th. Although the HP memristor in question is purely experimental at this point (and hence very slow and expensive), surely, much effort will be spent in understanding how to commercialize them and how to use them to create more complicated systems. </p>

<p>Engineers</a> find 'missing link' of electronics - tech - 30 April 2008 - New Scientist Tech</p>

<p>But there's also a general point that you need to consider. Getting a PhD in a particular subfield doesn't mean that you're going to be pursuing that specific subfield for the rest of your life. You are going to need to be flexible. Technology will change and you will need to change with it. For example, during the early days of the computer industry, most of the engineers were obviously not trained as computer engineers or computer scientists because, by definition, those subfields didn't even exist at the time. Instead, the early computer hardware industry drew from engineers whose expertise lay in vacuum tubes for radio, television, radar, and so forth. The software industry drew from mathematicians who devised algorithms and devised the computability/complexity theory. Hence, you have to be willing to be flexible in your career to accommodate whatever new technology is developed. For example, what if you were one of those guys who had gotten a PhD specializing in radio tubes for the radio industry and simply decided to ignore the transistor? You would have been similarly out of a job. But if you had transferred to the burgeoning computer industry, you would have been able to update your skills. </p>

<p>Everybody has to face the problem of technical obsolescence. Not just people with PhD's, but everybody. Secretaries who knew only typewriters and who refused to learn word processing software lost their jobs. The real point is to be flexible in your career and be constantly updating your skills.</p>

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Are you a student btw, Columbia_Student?

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<p>I'm always learning and going to school. So yeah I'm a student but also a mom.</p>

<p>electrifice: you appear to be all over the place with your question. If you only want to do research you may not get well paid. YOU have to make up your mind as to what is important to you</p>