Thread for BSMD 2020-2021 Applicants (Part 1)

[PPofEngrDr]

@rk2017

@NoviceDad

@rk2017

that’s perhaps the reason for the magic number for applications in traditional route being in the 25-30 range.

If you notice in my calculations, 29 is the number of applications to increase the odds to >50%

However, the number of applications seems more a function of competition within the same college - UCLA undergrads on an average send out ~30 applications (while the national average across all colleges is ~17).

It is interesting to see how the # of applications increase as you progress

@NoviceDad

I thought the 0.024 you used (2.4% chance) is rather selective and so used twice that since usually the ratio of acceptance to the seats in medical schools is usually 2-3 times.

So using 0.05, meaning 95% chance of not getting any response for a given application, the number of applications for a 50% chance of landing in at least one med school acceptance turns out to be 14 [ 1 - (0.95)^14 (where ^=raised to the power of)]

For a 70% chance it is 24 i.e 1 - (0.95)^24

However depending on one’s confidence level, can plugin higher values and see, like 0.9 or 0.85 etc

However this is just to give a mathematical probability as you already pointed out. Lot of factors come into play during the actual selections (some of which I have listed earlier in the thread).

Also as cited above an outstanding candidate in every respect applied to 30+ med schools (not a UCLA undergrad but similar in reputation) to land with just one selection (not any fancy one). Perhaps would have got in more if gap year(s) taken.

Repeating same anecdotal case doesn’t make it norm and doesn’t help applicants for true evaluation.
If one is interested in all mathematical calculations, also put it in perspective to BS/MD programs as well as BS/DO programs. I doubt those math results will prove BS/MD or BS/DO are better odds than traditional route.
Also entire BS/MD program is a spoon in bucket if WUSTL BS/MD was drop in a bucket. That drop is so good in quality that risk averse parents, focused only on quantity, fails to realize true potential of quality BS/MD programs.
So called pioneer programs, if quality is that good they should increase the quantity, but they don’t. Certain they have valid reasons to stick with programs with small capacity. BTW, quite a few BS/MD programs even recommends taking a gap year. So let’s be fair to applicants and keep our subjective BS/MD cheerleader bias at bay.

[NoviceDad]

@mom2boys1999

On a slightly less mathematical note (unless we count subtracting an application from the to do pile), my son submitted his first college application tonight! While not for a BSMD, it is one of his traditional undergrad choices. We are pretty excited in our house.

congratulations!

[NoviceDad]

@rk2017

@NoviceDad

@rk2017

that’s perhaps the reason for the magic number for applications in traditional route being in the 25-30 range.

If you notice in my calculations, 29 is the number of applications to increase the odds to >50%

However, the number of applications seems more a function of competition within the same college - UCLA undergrads on an average send out ~30 applications (while the national average across all colleges is ~17).

It is interesting to see how the # of applications increase as you progress

@NoviceDad

I thought the 0.024 you used (2.4% chance) is rather selective and so used twice that since usually the ratio of acceptance to the seats in medical schools is usually 2-3 times.

So using 0.05, meaning 95% chance of not getting any response for a given application, the number of applications for a 50% chance of landing in at least one med school acceptance turns out to be 14 [ 1 - (0.95)^14 (where ^=raised to the power of)]

For a 70% chance it is 24 i.e 1 - (0.95)^24

However depending on one’s confidence level, can plugin higher values and see, like 0.9 or 0.85 etc

However this is just to give a mathematical probability as you already pointed out. Lot of factors come into play during the actual selections (some of which I have listed earlier in the thread).

Also as cited above an outstanding candidate in every respect applied to 30+ med schools (not a UCLA undergrad but similar in reputation) to land with just one selection (not any fancy one). Perhaps would have got in more if gap year(s) taken.

I think we can use the likelihood of getting an interview - which is roughly 7.5%.
Good exercises to do.

[NoviceDad]

@PPofEngrDr

@rk2017

@NoviceDad

@rk2017

that’s perhaps the reason for the magic number for applications in traditional route being in the 25-30 range.

If you notice in my calculations, 29 is the number of applications to increase the odds to >50%

However, the number of applications seems more a function of competition within the same college - UCLA undergrads on an average send out ~30 applications (while the national average across all colleges is ~17).

It is interesting to see how the # of applications increase as you progress

@NoviceDad

I thought the 0.024 you used (2.4% chance) is rather selective and so used twice that since usually the ratio of acceptance to the seats in medical schools is usually 2-3 times.

So using 0.05, meaning 95% chance of not getting any response for a given application, the number of applications for a 50% chance of landing in at least one med school acceptance turns out to be 14 [ 1 - (0.95)^14 (where ^=raised to the power of)]

For a 70% chance it is 24 i.e 1 - (0.95)^24

However depending on one’s confidence level, can plugin higher values and see, like 0.9 or 0.85 etc

However this is just to give a mathematical probability as you already pointed out. Lot of factors come into play during the actual selections (some of which I have listed earlier in the thread).

Also as cited above an outstanding candidate in every respect applied to 30+ med schools (not a UCLA undergrad but similar in reputation) to land with just one selection (not any fancy one). Perhaps would have got in more if gap year(s) taken.

Repeating same anecdotal case doesn’t make it norm and doesn’t help applicants for true evaluation.
If one is interested in all mathematical calculations, also put it in perspective to BS/MD programs as well as BS/DO programs. I doubt those math results will prove BS/MD or BS/DO are better odds than traditional route.
Also entire BS/MD program is a spoon in bucket if WUSTL BS/MD was drop in a bucket. That drop is so good in quality that risk averse parents, focused only on quantity, fails to realize true potential of quality BS/MD programs.
So called pioneer programs, if quality is that good they should increase the quantity, but they don’t. Certain they have valid reasons to stick with programs with small capacity. BTW, quite a few BS/MD programs even recommends taking a gap year. So let’s be fair to applicants and keep our subjective BS/MD cheerleader bias at bay.

Some BS/MD programs that have added “seats” or new programs that have come up:

UPitt: Past 2 years, there intake has been 17-21 as against the historical average of ~10, represents 70-100% increase.

Penn/Jeff: Past 3 years, their acceptances have increases to 60-65 students, up from traditional ~40 students, a key reason being the total seats at Jeff increased. That’s about 50% increase.

Upstate: 60 seats (through all feeder schools) - newly added in the past two years

Seats gained: ~ 90

Programs where seats have more or less remained the same:

Brown
NU-HPME
URochester
Case
BU
NJMS
Baylor
Stonybrook
GW

… to name a few

Programs where seats have declined

FAU: 16 to 12 (last year)
WashU - if rumors are correct, 4 to 0

(cannot think of others but please share if folks know any).

Loss of seats = 8

Looks like net seats were added to BS/MD program.

[NoviceDad]

Numbers and Ratios

One thought:
Approx 5% of seats offered via BS/MD ==> translates to over 1000 seats.
My estimate of number of students applying = ~ 3000
Ratio of someone getting a BS/MD seat = ~ 33%
(using the same calc. as some folks have been indicating.)

Compared to the traditional route of getting an MD seat (as some folks have indicated) = ~ 39%.

Yes, BS/MD is lower but not that much.

[rk2017]

@NoviceDad

@rk2017

@NoviceDad

@rk2017

that’s perhaps the reason for the magic number for applications in traditional route being in the 25-30 range.

If you notice in my calculations, 29 is the number of applications to increase the odds to >50%

However, the number of applications seems more a function of competition within the same college - UCLA undergrads on an average send out ~30 applications (while the national average across all colleges is ~17).

It is interesting to see how the # of applications increase as you progress

@NoviceDad

I thought the 0.024 you used (2.4% chance) is rather selective and so used twice that since usually the ratio of acceptance to the seats in medical schools is usually 2-3 times.

So using 0.05, meaning 95% chance of not getting any response for a given application, the number of applications for a 50% chance of landing in at least one med school acceptance turns out to be 14 [ 1 - (0.95)^14 (where ^=raised to the power of)]

For a 70% chance it is 24 i.e 1 - (0.95)^24

However depending on one’s confidence level, can plugin higher values and see, like 0.9 or 0.85 etc

However this is just to give a mathematical probability as you already pointed out. Lot of factors come into play during the actual selections (some of which I have listed earlier in the thread).

Also as cited above an outstanding candidate in every respect applied to 30+ med schools (not a UCLA undergrad but similar in reputation) to land with just one selection (not any fancy one). Perhaps would have got in more if gap year(s) taken.

I think we can use the likelihood of getting an interview - which is roughly 7.5%.
Good exercises to do.

That would be 9 and 16 respectively for the 50% and 70% chances of at least 1 acceptance.

[mom2boys1999]

@rk2017
Georgetown’s app is open. With all the applications he will be doing, he is trying to get the early access ones done.

USF will be his safety (he will be auto admitted to the Honors College because of his grades and test scores) and it opens July 1. That’s at least two out of the way before the onslaught opens Aug 1

[PPofEngrDr]

@NoviceDad

@PPofEngrDr

@rk2017

@NoviceDad

@rk2017

that’s perhaps the reason for the magic number for applications in traditional route being in the 25-30 range.

If you notice in my calculations, 29 is the number of applications to increase the odds to >50%

However, the number of applications seems more a function of competition within the same college - UCLA undergrads on an average send out ~30 applications (while the national average across all colleges is ~17).

It is interesting to see how the # of applications increase as you progress

@NoviceDad

I thought the 0.024 you used (2.4% chance) is rather selective and so used twice that since usually the ratio of acceptance to the seats in medical schools is usually 2-3 times.

So using 0.05, meaning 95% chance of not getting any response for a given application, the number of applications for a 50% chance of landing in at least one med school acceptance turns out to be 14 [ 1 - (0.95)^14 (where ^=raised to the power of)]

For a 70% chance it is 24 i.e 1 - (0.95)^24

However depending on one’s confidence level, can plugin higher values and see, like 0.9 or 0.85 etc

However this is just to give a mathematical probability as you already pointed out. Lot of factors come into play during the actual selections (some of which I have listed earlier in the thread).

Also as cited above an outstanding candidate in every respect applied to 30+ med schools (not a UCLA undergrad but similar in reputation) to land with just one selection (not any fancy one). Perhaps would have got in more if gap year(s) taken.

Repeating same anecdotal case doesn’t make it norm and doesn’t help applicants for true evaluation.
If one is interested in all mathematical calculations, also put it in perspective to BS/MD programs as well as BS/DO programs. I doubt those math results will prove BS/MD or BS/DO are better odds than traditional route.
Also entire BS/MD program is a spoon in bucket if WUSTL BS/MD was drop in a bucket. That drop is so good in quality that risk averse parents, focused only on quantity, fails to realize true potential of quality BS/MD programs.
So called pioneer programs, if quality is that good they should increase the quantity, but they don’t. Certain they have valid reasons to stick with programs with small capacity. BTW, quite a few BS/MD programs even recommends taking a gap year. So let’s be fair to applicants and keep our subjective BS/MD cheerleader bias at bay.

Some BS/MD programs that have added “seats” or new programs that have come up:

UPitt: Past 2 years, there intake has been 17-21 as against the historical average of ~10, represents 70-100% increase.

Penn/Jeff: Past 3 years, their acceptances have increases to 60-65 students, up from traditional ~40 students, a key reason being the total seats at Jeff increased. That’s about 50% increase.

Upstate: 60 seats (through all feeder schools) - newly added in the past two years

Seats gained: ~ 90

Programs where seats have more or less remained the same:

Brown
NU-HPME
URochester
Case
BU
NJMS
Baylor
Stonybrook
GW

… to name a few

Programs where seats have declined

FAU: 16 to 12 (last year)
WashU - if rumors are correct, 4 to 0

(cannot think of others but please share if folks know any).

Loss of seats = 8

Looks like net seats were added to BS/MD program.

Still it remains spoon in MD bucket. Don’t think they are being added because the region of SOM has need for healthcare professionals, more likely to boost SOM profile by admitting talented students who otherwise won’t choose them as SOM, especially Upstate that has 509 MCAT and 3.63 GPA averages. If Caribbean SOMs start similar programs, they will sell out too. Does it mean go for any bird one find?

[rk2017]

@NoviceDad

Penn/Jeff: Past 3 years, their acceptances have increases to 60-65 students, up from traditional ~40 students, a key reason being the total seats at Jeff increased. That’s about 50% increase.

Could it be because they want to fill the future classes each year with more % of the BS/MD students and not necessarily the overall class size increasing? Something similar to what Brown has been doing for a while and Upstate seems to be heading for?

[NoviceDad]

@PPofEngrDr
There are BS/MD programs with US undergrad and Caribbean Med Schools.

[PPofEngrDr]

@NoviceDad

@PPofEngrDr
There are BS/MD programs with US undergrad and Caribbean Med Schools.

I meant if Caribbean add more seats to BS/MD, shouldn’t we educate applicants about those schools stats too? At the end its a bird-in-hand.

[grtd2010]

@NoviceDad
From AAMC data for MD only.
Total 21,869 matriculants = Total number of seats
5% = 1093
Your estimate of applicants may be low.

[rk2017]

@rk2017

@NoviceDad

Penn/Jeff: Past 3 years, their acceptances have increases to 60-65 students, up from traditional ~40 students, a key reason being the total seats at Jeff increased. That’s about 50% increase.

Could it be because they want to fill the future classes each year with more % of the BS/MD students and not necessarily the overall class size increasing? Something similar to what Brown has been doing for a while and Upstate seems to be heading for?

Especially considering the positive impression they seem to portray about their BS/MD pool of students in comparison to their traditional route ones over an extended time period in a study published some time ago?

[rk1235rk]

Experts,
NJMS has 6-7 feeder schools and their matriculating class size last year was 178 students. And what I read before, each feeder takes in 15-20 students. If that is true, that would mean half of the class for NJMS are BS/MD students. Can anyone confirm this?

[rk2017]

No, the slots allotted to each feeder is not consistent. TCNJ and NJIT grab the biggest chunks (15-20). Rutgers Nwk, Stevens, Drew etc. get smaller pieces of the pie(5-10). Caldwell and few others may not even get any in a given cycle. Also there is some duplication in counting since same candidate can be forwarded by multiple feeders, but will only choose one to enroll through.
Moreover not everyone accepted is going to matriculate to NJMS (I know a few who opted for other programs).

[mom2boys1999]

Is there a list that tells us how many seats on average in different programs?

[NoviceDad]

@rk2017

@rk2017

@NoviceDad

Penn/Jeff: Past 3 years, their acceptances have increases to 60-65 students, up from traditional ~40 students, a key reason being the total seats at Jeff increased. That’s about 50% increase.

Could it be because they want to fill the future classes each year with more % of the BS/MD students and not necessarily the overall class size increasing? Something similar to what Brown has been doing for a while and Upstate seems to be heading for?

Especially considering the positive impression they seem to portray about their BS/MD pool of students in comparison to their traditional route ones over an extended time period in a study published some time ago?

While those may be potential reasons, I think it is not so as the timing of the increase was aligned with Jefferson increase.

[mom2boys1999]

By no means exhaustive but my rough attempt. I also chose the number of acceptances rather than matriculation: Programs/ Number of Seats (Approx)

Albany Medical College- 45

Augusta University- not found

Baylor/Baylor- 6

Rice/Baylor- 6

Boston- around 40

Case- 15 to 20

FAU- 12

Hofstra- 15 to 20

Drexel- 32

GW- 20

SBU/GW-

Howard- 7

Temple- 3

Northwestern- 19

Stony Brook- 4

NJMS- 170ish (TCNJ and NJIT 15 to 20; Rutgers, Stevens Drew 5-10)

Penn/Thomas Jefferson- 60-65

SUNY Downstate- 15

SUNY Upstate- 60

Brown- 50

UofAlabama- 10

Cincinatti- 7

UConn-??

UI- 40 to 55

U Rochester- 10

VCU- 20 to 30

Sophie Davis- about 60

Pittsburgh- 20

Rensselaer-20 to 30

**SLU- 120 (this seems like a lot and I was torn on including it since it doesn’t guarantee med school)

UMKC- 105 (60ish from M and 30 from neighboring states and then 15 from around the country)

[grtd2010]

@mom2boys1999

By no means exhaustive but my rough attempt: Programs/ Number of Seats (Approx)

Albany Medical College- 45

Augusta University- not found

Baylor/Baylor- 6

Rice/Baylor- 6

Boston- around 40

Case- 15 to 20

FAU- 12

Hofstra- 15 to 20

Drexel- 32

GW- 20

SBU/GW-

Howard- 7

Temple- 3

Northwestern- 19

Stony Brook- 4

NJMS- 170ish (TCNJ and NJIT 15 to 20; Rutgers, Stevens Drew 5-10)

Penn/Thomas Jefferson- 60-65

SUNY Downstate- 15

SUNY Upstate- 60

Brown- 50

UofAlabama- 10

Cincinatti- 7

UConn-??

UI- 40 to 55

U Rochester- 10

VCU- 20 to 30

Sophie Davis- about 60

Pittsburgh- 20

Rensselaer-20 to 30

**SLU- 120 (this seems like a lot and I was torn on including it since it doesn’t guarantee med school)

UMKC- 105 (60ish from M and 30 from neighboring states and then 15 from around the country)

Great you got a list.
Search google exactly as “combined-medical-programs” and then choose the one with “Combined Programs”. Become your own expert on the bsmd programs by visiting each individual bsmd program’s url. The list may not be exhaustive.

[mom2boys1999]

Thank you. Wasn’t sure if someone more “expert” level than myself had created a list- no sense in recreating unnecessarily.

We have pretty much settled on the 12 programs my son will be applying to and he has his spreadsheets up and ready for applications to open. He’s got that nervous anticipation going!