It’s over, and she’s hasn’t had the Cheshire Cat grin leave her face for the last 27 hours.
Thanks again to everyone who gave input on this thread. It was very helpful and very appreciated. I’m circling back around to let you know how things went.
Ended up with a 33 ACT superscore. She sent it in, because felt that since her HS was an unknown entity it helped confirm her ability to handle the work at a top school.
Apps she sent in:
Amherst ED
CWRU EA
Tulane EA
CWRU EA
Macalester EA
Rochester (in by Dec 1 for scholarship consideration)
Whitman (in by Dec 1 for app fee waiver)
State U (rolling, admitted with full tuition scholarship)
Lots of others lined up, no essays written but lots of them she at least had bullet points, or notes on how to expand on/chop up something she had already written.
She was accepted ED to Amherst, so we will never know how the other apps would have turned out. She withdrew them all today and confirmed to Amherst that she would see them in August.
Special shout out to @publisher who has been pointing out from the beginning that a 1/350 rank kid from an underrepresented state should use their ED bullet very carefully, because there is a good chance to hit the target. I am very happy to report that he was correct. ED apps were up 40% so the ED admit rate was down to 25% this year at Amherst, and that’s including the athletes and others who really had their slots already lined up before official decisions came out. My guess is that unhooked ED this year was no better than RD in a regular year, although I expect RD to be even tougher.
In the end, she wanted a lot of the things at Brown but wanted it to be an LAC. I think the LAC version of Brown is probably not a bad description of Amherst. We debated lowering the target a bit, but decided that Amherst really was the definite #1, so she should use her ED shot there. If it didn’t work out, she was ready to apply to a bunch more places, mostly LAC’s (the midsized U’s had EA or scholarship benefits to applying early so those apps were already done).
Everything worked out perfectly for her. Thanks again for all the helpful comments I received from all of you.