<p>I recently came across a site that predicts medical school chances. </p>
<p>Chance</a> Predictor | ProspectiveDoctor</p>
<p>The percentages are so low...is it really that hard to get into medical school?</p>
<p>I knew it was hard, but didnt know it was that hard. Also, does race really matter?</p>
<p>Yes, it really is that hard to get into med school. The chances are practically abysmal. This is why applicants must apply to a large number of a broad range of med schools, and must have excellent profiles if they are going to be accepted first time around.</p>
<p>I have no idea how reliable that tool is, mostly because so much more goes into med school acceptance than GPA and MCAT score. I’m currently a second year med student (I’d estimate in the top quarter/top half of my class) and according to your tool I’m an under par applicant and don’t have a good chance at acceptance for the school I currently attend (and was accepted early!). Additionally, the 3 other schools where I interviewed (and was ultimately wait-listed) were among the 5 that were the “weakest” for me. I’d personally avoid using this tool and other such tools, and instead would look at the MSAR and the US News and World Report to learn about chances at med school admissions. But that’s just me.</p>
<p>My current school (although I’m MD/PhD so it’s a little different) was listed at under 5% for me.</p>
<p>As Kristin points out, just to put some other numbers on it, I applied to 23 schools (on the high side for MD/PhD but not ridiculous). Just for the sake of speed, I am going to do the first 23 schools on this website’s list for me:</p>
<p>Harvard University
Stanford University
Mayo Clinic College of Medicine
UCSF
University of Pennsylvania
Columbia University
University of Chicago
UCLA
Cornell
Johns Hopkins University
New York University
Baylor College of Medicine
Vanderbilt
Duke University
Mount Sinai
Brown University
UCSD
Yale University
Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth
Northwestern University
University of Pittsburgh
Emory University
Boston University</p>
<p>As you can see, that’s a pretty elite group, and the highest percentage for any one of them is 6.62%. But if I apply to all 23, the odds that I get into at least one (assuming the probabilities really are independent, random events) is 62%. Not bad odds.</p>
<p>Since the real world doesn’t function quite like this, what that translates to is that while the odds of any one particular school are very low, if you apply to a number of schools spanning a range of selectivity, you can drastically increase the odds of getting into at least one school, and it only takes one acceptance to become an MD.</p>
<p>It is hard to get in. But if applicant is paying attention to the match between his stats and Med. Schools acceptance history, then it will result in a reasonable list of Med. Schools. By reasonable I mean estimated acceptance of 50%. For example, if you do a reasonable research and produce the reasonable list of 8 schools based on criteria above, estimated number of acceptances would be 4. Keep in mind that many reasonable applicants get accepted to several Med. Schools and some have hard time deciding at the end.</p>
<p>Very interesting!</p>
<p>What would be your guess of the multiplication factor for an instate school with Instate preference of “significant”?</p>
<p>I think that tool might be a little more accurate if it asked for “state residency” and MCAT breakdown.</p>
<p>Judging by the numbers I saw for some state schools given my stats, I don’t think there is a multiplier for in state status. My guess is you have to divide your chances by some factor if OOS. For example I remember some state schools had my chances at 25-45%. I bet that would be my in state odds. My OOS odds would be much much lower.</p>
<p>I think tools like this are bogus because they don’t take into account anything other than stats, and clearly there’s much more to it than that. (Assuming you have reasonable stats, which to me would be a GPA>3.6 and an MCAT of at least 30.)</p>
<p>But I agree with iwbb–it’s almost like this tool assumes you’re a resident of every state, haha. </p>
<p>If you want to know about in state preference, I think your best bet is to look at MSAR and USNWR. From there, you can tell how many kids applied and were accepted and matriculated to that school from that state. You can also probably find this information on the school’s website; it seems like every school has a page with stats about the most recent class, which usually includes how many applied and how many were accepted. Figuring out acceptance rates for your state’s state school shouldn’t be too hard to do; I’d be happy to help you figure it out, if you let me know your state!</p>
<p>I agree that it assumes that you’re a resident of every state. That’s why I think it should ask home state.</p>
<p>Also…it gives the following, but it’s a pain to weed thru:</p>
<p>IN-STATE PREFERENCE
Little to None
Moderate
Significant
Very Little Out-of-State (I’m assuming that this means that very few OOS students are accepted, right? lol…it doesn’t mean “very little applicants” who are OOS are accepted 
Tall folks are out of luck)</p>
<p>Yea dont even use websites like these. It gave me excellent for every school except for 3. Obviously doenst reflect reality</p>
<p>"What would be your guess of the multiplication factor for an instate school with Instate preference of “significant”? "
-Is it addressed to me? If so, the answer is the same all accross. Match your stats (and other staff on your application), then ask yourself what outcome you want to have. Some people are aiming only at 25%, some others at 50%, third group might aim at 75% acceptance. The list of Med. Schools should be a matched for your goal. Nobody is saying that it is accurate. But given sufficient research, one can (g)estimate ir rather close. Of course, location is one of the most important criteria under consideration. And it is rather predictable also. There are some places that are much harder to predict (U of Chicago, Cleveland Clinic,…others) but again, they are going to be part of your “most likely not accepted” list of schools or maybe opposite, based on what you have.<br>
I heard about people with amazing stats who got nowhere. Yes, if you apply only to these very highly selective and un-predictable places, you mihgt end up like this. Common Sense is a winner in most cases of life. Add a bit of luck, a ton of hard work and you should get somewhere and most likely you can get in at multiple places.</p>
<p>I just used our instate school as an example - Indiana University</p>
<p>Case 1) 3.8/3.9/31/white - 14.78%
Case 2) 3.8/3.9/35/white - 16.94%
Case 3) 3.8/3.9/39/White - 21.89%
Case 4) 3.8/3.9/27/White - 12.74%</p>
<p>I certainly hope that an Indiana student with 35 MCAT would have a much better chance (30-40%?) than 17% assuming decent EC’s and LOR’s. </p>
<p>Ref: premed office
IUSOM’s median GPA is 3.8 and median MCAT is 32 for 2009-2010. The instate students probably have lower averages. If I assume 3.7/3.8/31, the rate is 14.24% per the calculator. </p>
<p>Now, see Ref: <a href=“https://www.aamc.org/download/321442/data/2012factstable1.pdf[/url]”>https://www.aamc.org/download/321442/data/2012factstable1.pdf</a>.
For 2012, IU had 695 instate applicants. There are 268 instate matriculants. I would guess that the admitted instate students would probably be around 350 or close to 50% of the 695 applicants on average. Since the median MCAT is only 31, I would guess that a student with 35 MCAT should have a chance over 50%. Therefore, the multiplication factor should be 2-3. On the other hand, I would believe that the chance of 12.7% for a student with MCAT of 27 might be too high comparatively. Ref: <a href=“https://www.aamc.org/download/321508/data/2012factstable24.pdf[/url]”>https://www.aamc.org/download/321508/data/2012factstable24.pdf</a></p>
<p>Do I miss something?</p>
<p>
I think your conclusion from these “raw” numbers is quite reasonable. I think it is better to trust the numbers and your intuition, rather than some online calculator as you do not know the logic used by the calculator.</p>
<p>However, it is rumored that after your GPA and MCAT reach some threshold, the increase of the stats may not increase your odds significantly. That is, for non-California med schools, the odds for an applicant for a 33 MCAT and that for an applicant with a 35 MCAT may be not that different, assuming that the “other profiles (e.g., ECs)” of the applicants are similar.</p>
<p>It is also remored that the GPA/MCAT stats may have inched upward a little bit in recent years.</p>
<p>To be sure, I do not know how valid these two rumors are.</p>
<p>Yeah, doesn’t really work that way.</p>
<p>Once an in-state student meets the cut-off for the school, they get moved into review pool. From the review pool, an applicant’s ECs, LOR, PS, how well the student’s goal match the school’s mission and other factors all get scruntinized. If the review committee feels the students is good match, then an interview invitation is issued. </p>
<p>A higher stats applicant might be somewhat more likely to get an interview, but I don’t think you can say that a 35 MCAT applicant will automatically get a leg up on 27 MCAT applicant when it comes to getting accepted.</p>
<p>Some schools also will deliberately choose NOT to interview a higher stats applicant because med schools are even more yield conscious than highly competitive undergrads and the adcomm assumes applicants with higher than typical stats will want to go elsewhere.</p>
<p>A number of state schools hold “blind” interviews–the interviewers don’t know the applicant’s stats. It’s assumed that any student who gets as far the interview stage is capable of completing med school successfully. </p>
<p>A good --or a bad – interview is what makes an applicant successful.</p>
<p>I know at our state school, an applicants stats are only used as a kind of tie-breaker when they come down to choosing who to accept for the last few seats where all the remaining applicants’ interviews are neither really good or really bad and nothing about their ECs make them stand-outs.</p>
<p>If you look at the AAMC Analysis in Brief, you’ll see that the importance of numbers (sGPA, cGPA and especially the MCAT score) declines between the interview invitation and the admission offer. Interview recs & LORs become paramount, followed by sGPA and medical service ECs. MCAT score drops to #6 of 12 items listed by med school admissions directors as important.</p>
<p><a href=“https://www.aamc.org/download/261106/data/aibvol11_no6.pdf[/url]”>https://www.aamc.org/download/261106/data/aibvol11_no6.pdf</a></p>
<p>MCAT2 and WayOutWestMom,</p>
<p>Thanks for the comments and the reference. I think that some premeds with higher GPA and MCAT may be overconfident. They spend too much time on academics/research/MCAT rather than building up their credentials in other areas and improving their ability of talking about their involvement.</p>
<p>However, I think medical schools such as IUSOM will pay more attention to the stats due to ranking concerns. They really can’t afford being completely stats blind in the final decision. I would believe that there might be a score for interview and another score for everything else. The final decision will depend upon the total score. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the criteria link offers an excellent checklist for premeds to make the necessary adjustments early in the game.</p>