I took 3 semesters of German in college and spent four weeks one summer as well in an immersion program. That gave me enough German to spend part of the summer before my senior year doing research on German housing for my thesis. I’m not even particularly gifted at languages.
As for trying to figure the odds, I would never assume your odds are better than the acceptance rate for highly selective universities. My older son’s scores and GPA were in the top 25% (easily) of all the (8) colleges he applied to. He got into half of them (and two were safeties.)