Trinity ED applicant- seeking an outsider's opinion

First time CC poster; I can imagine that these types of posts are annoying but…

I’m applying to Duke’s Trinity College of Arts and Sciences and will definitely be applying Early Decision since Duke is my undisputed first choice school.
I wanted an “outsider’s” opinion (aka not myself, parents, friends) on my realistic chances at getting into Duke under Early Decision.
Here are are objective and subject information.

Let me know how you think my chances will be, and also if possible make a prediction for if I’ll get admitted, deferred, or rejected for Early Decision.

I understand that college admissions is a holistic process and there’s no real way of knowing for sure, but I wanted to hear some thoughts to relieve some of the stress that I have.

Thanks in advance.

Objective—

SAT I (breakdown): Not submitting (2130)

ACT: 33 Composite- 34E,34M,32R,33S,27W
(I’ve been studying a lot over the summer and have scored three consecutive 36’s on official practice tests… 35 is a safe estimate for what the composite score I’ll make on the actual ACT this Sept…)

SAT II:
BioM- 800
Chem-680 (took test before taking AP chemistry, retaking the subject test in Oct.)
Math II-740 (likely will retake in Oct.)
Physics-750

wGPA: 4.9167
Rank: ~ 9/560 (within top 2%)

AP (with score in parenthesis):
Biology (4), APES (4), US GovPol (3), Psych(4), Calc BC (5), Calc AB Subscore (5), Physics 1 (3), Physics 2 (3), HumanGeo(5), EngLang (4), Stats (4).

IB (place score in parenthesis): no IB at my school

Senior Year Course Load:
1st sem: Honors Civics/Econ, APUSH, Honors Spanish3, AP Chemistry
2nd sem: Honors forensic science, AP Macroeconomics, Honors Calculus 3, Honors English 4.

Major Awards (USAMO, Intel etc.):
•AP Scholar w/ Honor
•AP scholar w/ Distinction
•Student Choice Award winner in Spanish I •President’s Volunteering Service Awards- (Bronze in sophomore yr, Silver in junior yr)
• (probable) National Merit Semifinalist
(or at least Commended; my score is in 99th percentile and selection index score is well above projected minimum scores for my state)

Subjective—

Extracurriculars:

  • WishClub (Founder & President)
    (club grew to 70 members, purpose is to raise donations for the make a wish foundation, in our very first year as a club we fundraised $1000)
  • Medical Club (Treasurer sophomore and junior year, elected President for senior year)
  • Indian Vocal Performer (I spend a lot of my time practicing and I’ve given multiple solo performances in front of 300+ person audiences)
  • Speech & Debate (secretary)
  • Lots of Physician shadowing experiences during the summer (including ortho surgeon, cardiologist, cardiothoracic surgeon, internist, gastroenterologist, radiologist, and ophthalmologist)
  • Tennis Parks & Rec. Club, Gold Team Member

Job/Work Experience: Summer Camp Counselor (3 years)

Volunteer/Community service:
PVSA Bronze & Silver; over 400+ hours total over 4 years in high school (so far)
Soup kitchen 4hrs every Saturday
Hospital volunteer (guide visitors around the hospital)
Other (habitat for humanity, foodbank, etc; I enjoy volunteering so community service hours naturally just accumulated)

Essays: I’d say my CommonApp essay is a solid 8/10 maybe 9/10 it definitely shows I have a “passion”
Haven’t yet completed Duke essays

Interview: I am planning to do one eventually

State: NC

Intended major(s):
•Chemistry Major (with Biochemistry concentration)
•Evolutionary Anthropology minor

School Type: Public
Ethnicity: Asian (Indian)

Any thoughts?

^A while ago, Rachel Toor, a former admissions officer at Duke wrote a book about her experiences called “Admissions Confidential.” She basically revealed that at the time (the late 90s/early 2000s), admission standards for North Carolina applicants were much lower. I’m not so sure if this is still the case now, but if it is, then I would say yes, you probably will be admitted in the early round.

Any other opinions??

A 33 nowadays is about 50th percentile for Trinity and 25th percentile for Pratt. So you need to get higher scores to be competitive.

I don’t know if being a NC resident makes the standards lower, but it is well known that Duke gives preference to Carolina residents.

So overall I think you have a decent chance.