Turn around in GPA: Chances for top MS Stats Program?

Triple Major: BA Math, BS Econ, BA Philosophy

Hey r/GradSchool, so I wanted to ask for some feedback. My first two years of education, I got mediocre grades in intro courses/GenEds, with a cumulative GPA of around 3.4, but lowered to around 3.2 Sophomore year. The last year has really turned around, with a 3.8 GPA last semester and a very promising-looking second semester. My cumulative may be around a 3.5 at the end of this year, but possibly a little lower. Assuming I keep up these grades into my senior year, how much of a shot do I have at top MS Stats programs? Keeping in mind:

Most of the core classes for my majors Econ and Math are taken this year and next year. So while my final cumulative might be around 3.5-3.6, my total GPA for the last two years is around a ~3.8. This is a noticeable upturn in GPA considering they’re in the more specific courses.

I, unfortunately, failed Calc - twice! I failed the first part of CALC I and the first part of CALC II, having retaken each one the following half-semester. Fortunately, my math scores improved upon those courses.

I have many data analysis projects - Python, R, ML included - ready to showcase in a portfolio.

I have 2-3 letters of rec I could almost definitely obtain this fall - one of them being a very high-standing faculty member at my school.

No, I don’t know how I will do on the GRE’s, but I have studied for it with flashcard apps, and have had a fairly good track-record for standard examinations.

I’m mainly here for the feedback regarding the turn in GPA, but will gladly discuss all feedback about my pursuit.

Thank you!

EDIT: My top schools are Cornell, Columbia, NYU