This came directly off of a person’s early action admittance. I am having a hard time analyzing what it truly means.
Would appreciate people interpreting the situation and whether we are witnessing particular schools, like Miami, growing significantly in admissions difficulty before our very eyes?
Or, is this just a result of kids applying to more schools than ever before?
Or, is this something else different from these initial reactions?
I think kids applied to more schools, but Miami is also know for good merit aid in schools of that size and quality. UMiami participates in the Benacquisto scholarship award, Florida residents can use the Resident grant (about $4000 now, I think).
Also does it cost to apply, and are additional essays required? If no fee and no essays, it’s an easy app for many already completing the common app.
Yes, it has a cost (but there are obviously waivers) and they have a particularly challenging essay that is unique to other applications.
Would appreciate thoughts from @Data10, @lookingforward @cinnamon1212 @1NJParent @ucbalumnus @MWolf @theloniusmonk @Mwfan1921
Did the fact that kids applied to 20+ (just read 40 from 1 OP) colleges change admissions rates this year and in future?
Wait a minute, will yields be so low, that colleges will have similar admissions rates?
Did some schools benefit from TO and will others be one step closer to closing because of it? Who will benefit and why?
I know you all think a lot about this stuff, like I do, and this headline made my head spin. What does it really mean?
That headline is written for shock value and getting people to do incorrect math. That isn’t a 5% acceptance rate. In the 19-20 common data set UMiami had about 38k applications. That is about a 10% increase. That is way less than a lot of top schools. The yield at UMiami is about 20%.
Uncertainty drives up the number of applications and we’ve seen it time and again. The ovarall dramatic increase in applications is the result of the new uncertainties in the current environment. Not all colleges benefit (if we can call it a benefit) equally from this increase. Colleges that have something special to offer (prestige, location, cost, etc.) benefited significantly more than others. Those that don’t have anyting special to offer will likely suffer. Overall yield will be down significantly and more uncertain, but there will be great variation in yield as well, due to the same characteristics.
Flattered my opinion is being sought 
Taking a step back and looking at the application situation even more broadly, I do not think MORE kids are applying to college. Therefore these inflated numbers, I don’t think, affect kids’ chances (obviously in specific cases this might not be true). So, yes, I think that yield for schools, at all but the very selective, will be down.
Also broadly, I think COVID has just widened the gap between the haves and have nots, or the wealthy and the rest of us. Full pay kids will be prioritized, again at all but the very or most selective schools. I can’t see how less selective schools that are feeling the financial squeeze can offer the same level of merit aid or financial aid than they did in the past. Which hurts non-wealthy applicants.
So while admission rates may be down, that fact alone might not matter to the applicants. Will rates be the same, because yield will be down? Your guess is as good as mine, but that’s a reasonable supposition. Or, will schools wait list more, and turn to that as they find their yield down?
I’m not sure test optional is the factor that tips a school into the danger zone. I think it is their selectivity and their finances. Scott Gallagher’s well known article on this sets out the argument well. I agree with him that schools that are expensive but represent lower value will be in trouble. They will be accepting even more kids, but more kids that can pay. Kids that aren’t at that tippy top level, but need more aid will be hurt. And if schools that need lots of full pay kids can’t attract them, they will also be hurt, and may be entering a death spiral.
Yes, you need to calculate for yield. For class of 2023, U Miami had just under 39k apps, admitted 27% (around 10.5k), and had a yield of 21% (around 2200 enrolled). Colleges make deceptive announcements like that in the OP every year.
Obviously, that is not a 5% rate, but I would think the rate will depend a lot on early decision acceptances. If colleges locked up more people (a la Tulane) than in past years (not a bad move), it will need to incorporate that and the EA and regular decision yield. I sort of think EA yield will be higher because there will be more deferrals this year all around because of the greater number of applications sent per person.
It is not that simple.
I just wonder if the 42K is all applicants or EA applicants?
At the moment, Colgate appears to have seen the greatest percentage application increase among highly selective colleges — up 102.6%.
Colgate Receives Record Number of Applications for Admission | Colgate University.
My student was an ED, but this came off of a friend’s letter. I think it was overall, but would that would have been some fast counting by Miami.
Small liberal arts schools must do well as a percentage, but real numbers are more telling - right?
Based on this latest data drop from common app (linked below), it looks like results are bifurcated with more selective schools experiencing increases in apps, while schools like SUNYs and CSUs have seen decreases (20% and 5%, respectively).
Unique applicants have increased 1%, so essentially flat, but overall apps are up 10%, so clearly students have applied to more schools, on average. Disturbingly, first gen and fee waiver apps are down (as are FAFSA filings).
I agree with intparent that the uncertainty is driving the increase in apps, but that uncertainty won’t persist forever. Many schools will likely see lower yields this year, but we don’t have visibility yet as to whether acceptances per student are higher. I expect to see many students double depositing and waitlist action to be active thru the summer.
Time will tell…but fundamentals will be different starting in 2026 with smaller graduating classes. Additionally, we were already seeing (pre-pandemic) large numbers of students doing fully online school at the ‘mega-universities’ like WGU, SNHU, ASU, et al…and I wonder if more students will forego the residential experience for those offerings… to save money, live where they want, work part-time, etc. Bottom line…there’s likely lots of change still to come in Highered this decade.
Absolute numbers may grab people’s attention, but I regard percentage changes as much more meaningful. In UMiami’s case, for example, this year’s large absolute number of applications appears to have disguised a comparatively modest change in relation to last year.
I think there’s some validity that the percentages at smaller colleges will be more volatile simply because of the smaller denominators in a highly volatile environment.
Hypothetically, yes, but that doesn’t appear to match historical trends, in which year-over-year changes in applications at liberal arts colleges have generally been modest. What happened at Colgate this year lacks any precedent (or even remotely near precedent) in its history.
Yes, I agree the increase this year isn’t part of a trend. However, this is an unusual year with unprecedented volatility.
i always think from the perspective of people trying to get in. If a school has 4k more applicants, how does this change admissions difficulty for applicants?
Depends on how strong the additional applicants are relative to you (if you are an applicant).
Depends on how the college adjusts admit numbers for expected yield changes.