UC and CSU Class of 2025 Application- More safeties?

My son is a senior at a California school and I would love feedback on his chances at the schools he plans to apply to. He wants to major in Mechanical Engineering and he will apply to UCLA, UCB, UCSD, UCI, UCD, UCSB, UCR, SDSU, Cal Poly Slo, and maybe Cal Poly Pomona. He didn’t plan to apply to more than this but with all of the craziness this year, CSUs going test blind and UCs possibly going test blind, we are concerned he doesn’t have enough safeties. Thank you for any input/suggestions.
GPA 4.67 (10-11) 4.0 (UW) 4.27 (UC capped)
Class Rank (18/749)
ACT 35 (E35 M36 R34 S33 W8)
AP Scores: 5 on Human Geography, Biology, Computer Science, Lang, Calc BC and Physics
IB Scores: World Religion 6
Freshman Year Classes: AP Human Geography, Chemistry, Algebra 2 Plus, Preap English, Spanish 1, PE
Sophomore Year Classes: AP Bio, AP Eng Lang, Precalc and AP Calc AB, AP Computer, Science, CTE Applied Engineering, Spanish 2
Junior Year Classes: IB HL Physics, IB HL Math (Calc BC), IB HL English, IB SL World Religion, IB SL Spanish, CTE Engineering Pathway Capstone, IB TOK (second semester)
Senior Year Classes: IB HL Physics, IB HL Math, IB HL English, IB Music, IB SL Spanish, AP Gov and Econ, IB TOK (first semester)
Community College: Statistics
Subject Tests: Biology 760, Math 2 790
Activites:
Robosub Team (3 years) Lead CAD designer, Treasurer
Track (4 Years)
Church High School Youth Group Leadership- (3 years)
Worship Team-Plays guitar and cajon in band (4 years)
Music- Piano, Guitar, drums (from 4 years old)
Church Middle School Group Leader (3 years)
Lots of volunteer hours helping community (activities at church, food bank)
Youth Court Juror (4 years)
Math Club (4 years)
Trained for, raised money and ran the LA Half Marathon as part of a group to bring clean water to children in Africa. Group raised over $100,000.
Extra Educational Opportunities: Gears to Robots (STEM academy from 10-16), Autodesk Certified, Classes taken to learn Matlab, Computer Science Principals and Protools
Awards: Robosub Finalist, UCSD Math Competition Team won first place, JV Athlete of the Year, Youth Entrepreneur Award (city competition) second place
Full IB diploma
Paid Tutor outside of school
Spent lots of time over the summer writing his essays so hopefully they are good.

He is an excellent and competitive applicant for all the schools on his list.

Safeties would be Cal Poly Pomona, SDSU and UCR.

2019 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 4.20 or above capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 38%
UCLA: 35%
UCSD: 71%
UCSB: 73%
UCD: 84%
UCI: 55%
UCSC: 85%
UCR: 97%
UCM: 98%

**2020 UC capped weighted GPA averages along with 25th-75th percentile range: **
UCB: 4.22 (4.13-4.30)
UCLA: 4.25 (4.18-4.31)
UCSD: 4.18(4.04-4.28)
UCSB: 4.17 (4.03-4.27)
UCI: 4.11 (3.96-4.26)
UCD: 4.11 (3.97-4.25)
UCSC: 3.94 (3.71-4.16)
UCR: 3.88 (3.65-4.11)
UCM: 3.68 (3.40-3.96)

Target schools: UCD/UCI/UCSB/SLO and UCSD
Reach schools: UCLA/UCB

I am sure he will several choices in the spring. Best of luck to him.

@Gumbymom Thank you so much for the information! We will keep the list as is.

I agree he is an outstandingly well qualified applicant. I think you are on track with the safetys, etc.

I might add a couple of privates - Santa Clara, LMU and USD might offer enough merit aid to make themselves complling.

Good luck

@NCalRent Thank you for your input. I really appreciate it. I’ll have him look at those privates schools and see what he thinks.

@collegecrazy21 I had similar stats to your son (ME major too)and just based off experience I would say don’t take any of the UC’s for granted. They were pretty unpredictable for me and I figure I might as well share my results.

UCSD-attending
UCSB-accepted
UCLA-waitlisted
UCD-waitlisted
Cal-rejected
SLO-rejected
SDSU-accepted

I’d also like to add a few OOS suggestions if he’s interested…
UW-accepted
UMinn-accepted
Boulder-accepted

And obviously there’s a ton of other really good schools but these are just the ones I applied to.

@calgra Thank you for your input! This is very helpful information and a good reminder about how unpredictable admissions are, especially this year. My son’s top choice is UCSD so that’s fun to see you chose to go there. How do you like the ME program so far?

I’m just a freshman this year so I don’t start ME classes until winter quarter but so far the classes have been really good, even online, and my professors have been pretty understanding of the whole covid situation. Also, your son has a ton of AP credit and depending on which college he goes into he could probably pick up a minor like me so that’s a bonus. They also offer admission into the master’s program the end of junior year so you can get a master’s in 5 years.

Based on my experience, 3 application cycles for UCs, results can be unpredictable–particularly in engineering. Mine also applied to CP Pomona, Boulder, and Oregon State.

@calgra Thank you for the information and I’m glad that you like UCSD so much. I know this year looks different and that must be a bit disappointing. My oldest is a junior there and she said all of the freshman in her club are so excited to interact, even if it’s on Zoom. I am impressed with the resiliency and the creative ways to connect.
Thanks again for your input about getting into ME. My daughter is a music major so we didn’t have the craziness of applying to engineering.

@svlab112 It is crazy and so unpredictable. I have one more to go after this admission cycle. Thank you for your input!