got it!
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Does LOR request means a high chance of getting in? Since it indicates someone from the admission team went through the entire application and moved the application to “Likely” bucket pending LOR review.
We do not have enough information to know whether the LOR request this year will be correlated with a higher than average chance of admission.
This year, there appeared to be some adjustments to the augmented review process. Large numbers of LOR requests were made at certain schools, and LOR requests were also sent out to applicants very quickly after applications were submitted. So it is probable that there was an automated process involved, rather than someone in the admission team actually reading the applications.
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Last year, apparently 58% of those receiving a LOR request ending up accepted - so fairly good odds, but not a done deal. At the same time, it is also often considered the “maybe” pile for applicants (rather than a likely): not clearly rejected, but also not a clear accept. On the bubble. So it depends how you look at it.
It is also not clear this year if it means someone went through the entire application: people around here were getting LOR requests within a day or two of submitting their application. Unlikely that it had been carefully read that fast, and more likely based on stats or something similar.
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they’re on the fence of either acceptance or rejection so not a good or bad sign
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Although that may have been true in the past, the pattern of requests seems to have been somewhat different this year. We don’t really know why any particular applicant received a LOR request.
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Also I think it’s important for people to look at the underlying data associated with that 58%. It’s 58% of those who submitted the LOR (out of those who were asked to) who ended up being accepted. But among those 58% who sent in letters who were then accepted, almost 90% of them were first-generation college students. So especially if you are in the bucket of families (like I know you and I are) who have non-first-gen kids at local high schools where almost all kids were asked to submit LOR (and, as you say, all within a day or two of submitting – so hardly time to have had a thorough read, and we agree there is probably something else triggering the request, like a zip code), there is probably not going to be anywhere close to a 58% acceptance rate. I really think there is some sort of other test or effort going on to get LOR from virtually all kids who meet some basic threshold and are close to UCB.
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yes I agree there’s something triggering it automatically
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Yeah, I actually wonder if it’s another one of their experiments in LORs and they took two(?) schools as the test groups and perhaps have selected other schools as a control group. And then I guess to gauge things like how many actually submit one or two letters, how predictive letter submission is in terms of acceptance, or who knows what else.
But of course we have no idea what’s going on this year. And we just have to wait at this point to see how it plays out.
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Although the optimist in me still wants believe that this is housing related and that the LORs are somehow connected to a desire to accept MORE students from neighboring schools in order to build the commuter population for whom the university need not provide any housing.
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That’s interesting. I hadn’t thought about that.
It’s total speculation based on next to no evidence (the only evidence being the housing crisis and the timing on the heels of the lawsuit that almost upended admissions last year).
So I do know a couple of SoCal kids who got requests for LOR’s, 2 OOS and have seen 3 international students get the request too. So not all local. FYI
For sure, and that has always been the case. But I think they have said that they estimate about 14% of applicants will get LOR requests? The issue new this year are two specific schools next to Cal that had upwards of 80 - 90% of applicants receiving the request.
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AFAIK no one from my school has gotten one. But then again, I’d like to think my school is a “feeder.” It was on the list of top cali public high schools sending kids to the UCs, so I’m assuming they know enough about my school based on reputation + past applicants that they didn’t ask for a LOR?
As far we know - and it is based primarily on info sharing on this thread - it appears to only affect the two closest high schools to Cal. I’m not sure you could call them feeder schools, but both are very well known to Cal AOs - both send quite a few students to Cal every year. But again we really don’t know what’s going on.
My daughter’s speculation, also based on no evidence and rather a pessimistic view, is that since there are so many admits from our school, perhaps they have tracked them over time and they haven’t been especially successful at Cal, so now they are being more selective in whom they admit. Again, total speculation and no evidence. We just don’t know.
Looks like almost half the applicants that got in Cal from my school chose not to attend. I sincerely hope that this doesn’t make the school more selective/cautious with who they’re taking in. I don’t know though, just guessing.
Cal’s average yield is around 50% so nothing unusual about that.
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Yeah, and it could be a yield protection thing - Cal does not have great yield % overall and does not have a great yield from our school, either - so maybe the idea is that the students who follow through and provide the LORs are the ones most motivated to accept an admissions offer and therefore will lead to a better yield? And maybe that is part of a larger experiment: does LOR request compliance predict/improve yield? But, as with everything else, speculation with no evidence.
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My son received LOR email and submitted 2 LORs and have 3 checkmarks in his portal. His HS in Bay Area sends few students to Berkeley. He submitted his app on 11/29/22 and got LOR request on same day.
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