Waitlist admits will vary depending upon the yield each year by May 1 so there is no way to predict. You cannot correlate last year’s yield to this year’s waitlist chances. Here is the Waitlist data for the 2022 admission cycle (preliminary):
Opt in: 4650
Admits: 48
2021:
Number of qualified applicants offered a place on waiting list: 11,725 Number accepting a place on the waiting list: 6,871
Number of wait-listed students admitted: 359
Ty so much! Those numbers are not encouraging 
You can see several years worth of data on this link. http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/t/uc-berkeley-class-of-2026-waitlist-appeal-discussion/
Again, it varies from year to year.
That’s definitely not an official factor in admissions, and I truly don’t think the UCs “yield protect” in any way – they don’t have the time or staff to be that clever individually in terms of who they accept or don’t. (I do think they “yield manage” using waitlists, but that’s a different story and seems to change widely year to year, often based on the mistakes a particular campus made the year prior!)
But anecdotally based on my experience and on poking around using the tool that @worriedmomucb linked to in her reply, I do think that kids in our local public schools do a little better in UC admissions than kids in privates where the emphasis is more holistic and less AP/Honors-course driven. Maybe it’s because it’s easier to get a higher weighted GPA in public schools – I’m not sure. But in any case, our local publics do well overall with UC admissions (though UCLA and UC Berkeley are low, low admit rates regardless of what school you are coming from). I just looked up our school’s admit rates for the class entering Fall '21 when my son applied, and admit rate to UCB (very local! walking distance) was 19%, matriculation at 52% of those admitted. For UCLA it was half of that – 9% acceptance, matriculation at 69% of those admitted.
Yeah the other 2 checkmarks are for the 2 LORs.
At my school I know a total of 4 students who got the LOR request this year including me. There might be a few more students too. But they definitely don’t send the request to everyone. I know that there are at least 45-50 people applying to CAL and out of that they asked LORS from maybe 4-5 people at my school.
That seems within the normal range, if they estimate 14% overall will receive the request. Still curious about the triggers this year which at least SEEM different from last year. But we may never know.
Unfortunately, the yield is pre-factored into the initial set of admission offers. As @Gumbymom says, a WL should be treated as a denial for all practical purposes.
It could be that one school by coincidence is receiving more LORs this year than last year. But I don’t think it’s like that everywhere.
There are NO coincidences in UCB admissions 
(Just kidding, I have no idea. But I do suspect more than coincidence at play.)
When is the decision date for int students?
same day as the rest of the applicants, just a different time for you depending on your timezone
This might be behind a paywall, and is only for CA Public high schools. Lots of charts and graphs to plug numbers into.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/uc-school-admissions/
It is the same as the publised UC admissions by source on UC website , just in a simplified format.
It’s definitely the same data source
yeah for sure the same data source. Maybe a little easier to sort. and gives you a visual of how schools compare.
In local news:
Stay safe everyone.
Scary- didn’t realize that the campus is in a seedy area or was dangerous.
I personally don’t consider it particularly seedy. I don’t live in Berkeley proper, but very nearby, and I work in Berkeley (albeit a different neighborhood). I also attended Cal for 8 and half years (!) and personally never once felt unsafe there, day or night.
But…It is a city. And it’s a city sandwiched by some relatively less safe cities (Oakland, Richmond, even SF to some degree). Crime happens everywhere and Berkeley is no exception. We don’t live in a bubble, much as we’d sometimes like to think so.
Last year, I do remember hearing about some issues on campus. There was something on the news about parents of Cal students asking for additional security around the dorms and Cal coming us with some plan to train students to be quasi safety officers.
But I personally don’t think there’s a huge pattern of crime. I think it’s just that things happen in Berkeley as they do anywhere else. And sometimes we get comfortable with where we live, so it’s good to remember that we do all need to take precautions to reduce our risk of crime.
Another thing I remember was in the news here for a while was Cal students going to cafes to work and people grabbing their laptops. Crime of opportunity. So you do need to be aware of your surroundings. And car break-ins are super common everywhere around here - so never leave anything in your car. But violent crimes are pretty rare, imo.
I wouldn’t extrapolate of an individual incident. That said, there are 2 things you should do for every college in your final admitted list (prior to committing):
Here’s Cal’s recent report