More than 32,000 applications in total this year
13,000 of which were done early
Someone else heard at a different reception that the ED/EA acceptance rate was under 10%. So that means a bit under 1,300 were accepted early
Last year, 2400 applicants were accepted. They were overenrolled, and yield should go up even more this year, but at a maximum 2400 applicants will be accepted from 32,000 applications, putting us at a 7.5% acceptance rate. A bit more than 32,000 applicants probably applied and a bit less than 2400 will probably be accepted, so our likely rounded acceptance rate will be 7% as opposed to 9% from 2021.
Nondorf also joked that if we have any friends applying RD, we should give them a hug. I can assume that means another 2% RD acceptance year…or maybe even less.
The question is how many accepted ED vs. EA? Last year it was about the same number of accepts, 2/3 of which were ED (based on reports from accepted student events). What’s the breakdown this year - has anyone heard?
I can tell you the Facebook Group UChicago Class of 2022 has a little more than 800 members and entry is controlled by Admissions Officers. I suspect that means a little more than 800 have accepted admission (probably more as I’m sure not every accepted has joined the group).
@BrianBoiler - my son was accepted ED, but has not set up a FB account to join the group as of yet. Sounds like this might be something he will want to do…I am assuming he is not the only one without a FB account that has elected not to join, so I’m sure the numbers are higher.
Interesting on the RD comment, seems that UChicago is taking its own path here by limiting the number of RD accepts substantially below its peers and accepting early applicants above its peers. Nondorf is betting this is the way to go on admissions. Time will tell.
@caymusjordan my son hasn’t joined the group yet and also accepted ED. That is why I know my assumption was true. He plans on doing so though, he just needs to soldier through End of Semester finals.
I wouldn’t assume the large drop in acceptance rate if The College is expanding class size. Over the last couple of years people expected a lower acceptance rate and it didn’t materialize. Let’s see.
@CTlawyer - it didn’t drop last year because the total number of applications declined about 10% at the same time that they introduced EDI and EDII. If applications are truly north of 32,000 now that would the highest number they’ve ever had and a good 1,000 or so over two years ago (which was their 2nd highest). There’s no way that the admission rate won’t drop any way you look at it - they’ve never admitted more than 2400 (Classes of 2020 and 2021 were both about that big) and they’ve never had 32,000 applications before. And they will likely admit a good number - over 50% - via Early Decision.
Just guesswork but thinking it’ll be something closer to 2200 (just shy of 7% admit rate), with approximately 1400 admitted EDI/EDII. The yield there will be close to 99%, of course. Last year’s non-binding yield was probably around 1/3 (33%). They’ll end up with a class size of approximately 1650 (probably what they were shooting for last year) which is around a 75% yield overall. The wild card is whether they’ve backed off their goal of admitting over 50% ED. I doubt it. However, they might have bumped up more EA admits relative to RD.
One hesitates to read too much into this, but @BrianBoiler got me thinking about what the size of Facebook admitted students groups could tell you about early admits.
I note that as of today Harvard’s Facebook group for the class of 2022 has 685 student members (696 members less 11 admins and moderators), and Harvard disclosed admitting 964 SCEA applicants, so 71.1% of those admitted have joined. Yale’s group has 612 student members (621-9), 72.7% of the 842 SCEA applicants Yale admitted. Princeton’s has 500 (501-1), 62.6% of the 799 they admitted SCEA.
If we assume, triangulating among various sources, that HYP are aiming to have roughly 1,670, 1,550 and 1,300 members of their classes of 2022, then their Facebook group memberships today are 41.0%, 39.5% and 38.4% of those totals.
We don’t have confirmation of UChicago’s admissions stats, but there are 815 (824-9) student members of the class of 2022’s Facebook group. If it’s true that there were 13,000 early apps, with an admit rate of less than 10%, then something in excess of 62.7% of those admitted are in the group, putting UChicago’s participation rate somewhere between P and HY.
If it’s also true that UChicago’s targeted class size is 1,650, though, then the group’s size is 49.4% of the targeted class, much higher than HYP. Given that a significant number of students admitted to all these schools likely aren’t on Facebook or haven’t joined the group, this suggests that much more than half of UChicago’s targeted class was admitted early.
@DeepBlue86 your math lines up with my intuition. I suspect that will translate in a higher yield percentage, but have not taken the time to “cypher” it out.
If the yield for this year is comparable to last year, which I’m not saying it will be, with applications up 10% wouldn’t that equate to an approximate 10% drop in admission rate if class size stays the same? For your argument of a sub 7% admission rate we definitely need a higher yield.
Facebook group sizes don’t tell us much, because different schools add different numbers of moderators, admissions employees, random upperclasscritters, university staff with any number of updates/requests for students, etc, and add them at different times, The class of 2020 group has 3,000+ members by now.
So we’re chortling about rejecting lots of RD applicants now?
It would be really interesting to know how many of those early applications were ED and how many EA (and then also how many of the EAs convert to ED II).
As far as I know, Penn and Cornell are the only reasonably comparable schools that draw more than 5,000 ED applications per year (and Penn isn’t a lot over that). Both of them are meaningfully larger than Chicago – even assuming Chicago’s class size is now in the same range as Harvard or Brown – and both have multiple schools that appeal to different types of students, making of a much broader applicant base. If Chicago is getting 5,000 or more ED I applications, that’s a huge indication that this strategy is successful. If not . . . then it is accepting an awfully high percentage of its class from a relatively small pool. And there’s reason to believe that, on paper at least, that relatively small pool looks weaker on average than the top quartile of Chicago’s EA/RD pool. (Sorry. I know it’s not PC to say this, but I think it’s highly likely that a pool of Chicago applicants none of whom has applied to HYPS is going to be weaker academically, on average, to a pool of Chicago applicants all of whom applied SCEA to one of HYPS.)
And its EA acceptance rate would be very low: 300-400 out of 8,000+ applications, less than 5%, maybe a lot less. It’s really hard to see how they would continue to attract that many EA applicants with that kind of admission rate/
Applications still go up as admission rates continue to decline at all the top 20 for EA, ED and RD. More applicants are submitting more applications to more schools each and every year.
“If the yield for this year is comparable to last year, which I’m not saying it will be, with applications up 10% wouldn’t that equate to an approximate 10% drop in admission rate if class size stays the same? For your argument of a sub 7% admission rate we definitely need a higher yield.”
@CTlawyer my example does, indeed, assume a higher yield. Current yield is 72% and my example results in a 75% yield. BTW, that assumes that the % of the class admitted ED remains the same. If they start messing with that then yield will shift around a lot more than 3 points either way.
"If Chicago is getting 5,000 or more ED I applications, that’s a huge indication that this strategy is successful. If not . . . then it is accepting an awfully high percentage of its class from a relatively small pool. "
Given that the early pool in toto is running 13,000 (for the past couple years at least) isn’t it feasible that they are seeing 5,000 ED apps? Always had the impression that it was something like that last year - 800 admits out of 5,000 is about a 16% ED rate. 400 admits out of 8,000 is about 5%. Given that RD was 2%, why would these be out of line?
“And its EA acceptance rate would be very low: 300-400 out of 8,000+ applications, less than 5%, maybe a lot less. It’s really hard to see how they would continue to attract that many EA applicants with that kind of admission rate/”
They seem to have had the same number of total early apps as last year. Are you thinking this is just due to general volume increase (that all top schools are experiencing)? Because wouldn’t last year’s 400 EA admits have turned people off THIS year from going that route?
I agree, generally. I didn’t believe they got 5,000 ED apps last year, but maybe they did. If that’s true, it’s a real sign of strength. It’s certainly a real sign of strength of they do it several years running. Given the huge advantage ED seems to have conferred last year, when no one knew in advance what to expect, I have to believe that ED applications went up meaningfully from last year to this year. What I suspect is that they got 3,500-4,000 last year and maybe 5,000+ this year. If they got 5,000 last year, they had to have gotten 6,000+ this year, maybe even 7,000. That would really indicate a special status for Chicago.
On the second point, I thought total early applications had to go down this year, that ED applications would increase but that EA applications would go down by more than ED applications went up. The fact that they didn’t – if, in fact, they didn’t – goes to show that Jim Nondorf understands the dynamics of Chicago’s market position a heck of a lot better than I do. No real surprise there. I don’t think his total transformation of Chicago admissions has been dumb luck.
I don’t want to give the wrong impressions. Right after that (hugging rd kids) he said “just kidding” while everyone laughed and it seemed more lighthearted than mean spirited. But in the end, he did say the joke.
