@VeryLuckyParent I haven’t heard of anyone being actively discouraged from applying to med schools by the premed advisers. The premed advising office does not discourage students from applying to medical schools, but the advisers don’t sugarcoat when telling students whether their school list is impractical or if a gap year would improve one’s application. There is attrition on the premed path, but it has a lot to do with the many attractive alternatives at a school like Chicago with strengths in many areas. For instance, it is extremely common for first-year premeds to have one foot in general chemistry and the other in Econ 198, and more than a few jump ship to that major which lacks in lab reports and advertises several lucrative exit opportunities. A few of my premed friends are taking “gap years” in consulting or banking, but I’m not sure whether they’re coming back.
In terms of raw data, I’ve looked up class sizes for the non-honors sections of general chemistry (CHEM 111-112-113) and organic chemistry (CHEM 220-221-222) as a proxy for the number of potential premed students in a class as a function of time. This is a flawed metric for many reasons, most notably because a sizable fraction of the classes are not premed (especially so with general chemistry, which is used by math/cs majors for their physci major requirement), but as two whole quarters of gen chem are required for any physci credit and all premeds will need to continue from the first to the second quarter, it is instructive to look at the numbers. I’ve pulled class sizes for one premed cohort that started general chemistry in Autumn '14:
Autumn '14 CHEM 111: 301 (Everyone and their cat is registered; not all are premed)
Winter '15 CHEM 112: 294 (Almost everyone sticks around, indicating that first-quarter grades were not a deterrent)
Spring '15 CHEM 113: 274 (This is when math/cs majors tend to drop off, and for sure after the end of the quarter)
Autumn '15 CHEM 220: 195 (Uncommitted premeds and Molecular Engineering majors don’t return for OChem)
Winter '16 CHEM 221: 180
Spring '16 CHEM 222: 146 (Spring quarter is optional for bio majors and premeds that take Biochem)
We see that there is attrition over the course of a year in each class, but the largest source of attrition is over the summer before organic chemistry. I take this to mean that most students who drop premed aspirations do so not in a GPA-induced fit of desperation halfway through a schoolyear (as it is often portrayed) but rather in a controlled fashion, away from the pressures of school, when students do some soul-searching - perhaps in some cases partially GPA-induced - and realize that there are other satisfying careers besides that of a physician.
What is encouraging is that premeds that make it past OChem are very likely to follow through with their premed aspirations: the latest AAMC data states that 158 premeds applied to medical school from the University of Chicago during the 2015-2016 application cycle, which includes some alumni applicants and students from the honors sections of chemistry courses (<20 per year). This is in line with Princeton’s most recent count (168 applicants) but also much less than Harvard’s (280) and Yale’s (266). I cite my data here for those who are interested: https://www.aamc.org/data/facts/applicantmatriculant/86042/factstablea2.html
The discrepancy between HY and CP probably does have to do with stricter grading at both schools, but it might have to do with the greater proportion of students interested in other majors. Princeton and UChicago are also far stronger draws for students with hard quantitative backgrounds and interests in physics, math, stat, and economics (especially for UChicago). Yale, at least, boasts far less prestige in more quantitative fields (not that it has none, just less) and so the matriculant pools at each school may self-segregate to a degree, where premeds with a choice end up at HY and quant types end up at CP. One is far more likely to run into someone majoring in a quantitative field on campus here than one interested in government or law; I suppose the opposite is true at H and Y, and at P to a lesser degree.
@JHS Glad I could be of help! Your initial assessment is not misguided; the premed advising office was pretty deplorable until a change of leadership took place in the office in 2012. It was at that point that the former admissions counselors joined the office and there was an explosion of new opportunities and support for premed students. While the rigor of classes may not have changed much over the last few years, the rest of premed experience has certainly undergone a renaissance.